Week 13 was in many ways the quiet before the storm, with just about everything going according to chalk this weekend. But Rivalry Week and conference championship games figure to bring some major shakeups to the final College Football Playoff bracket.
Predicting anything about this season feels like a fool's errand, but will that stop us from trying? Reader, it will not. So, as we get set for a raucous final two weeks, let's look ahead and try to predict what the final CFP bracket will look like on selection Sunday — and who will be left standing as national champions when all is said and done.
Need to Know
- Ohio State is anything but locked into the CFB Playoff's No. 1 seed
- Chalk could dominate the CFP, unlike last season
- A first-time national champion isn't happening in this year's Playoff
Projecting the final College Football Playoff bracket after Week 13
- Indiana (13-0, Big Ten champ)
- Georgia (12-1, SEC champ)
- Texas Tech (12-1, Big 12 champ)
- Ole Miss (11-1, at-large)
- Texas A&M (11-1, at-large)
- Oregon (11-2, at-large)
- Ohio State (11-1, at-large)
- Notre Dame (10-2, at-large)
- Oklahoma (10-2, at-large)
- Alabama (10-3, at-large)
- SMU (10-3, ACC champ)
- Tulane (11-2, AAC champ)
Let's start in Week 14, where I'm predicting a couple of major upsets to current unbeatens. Nothing I've seen from Ohio State of late makes me think they can avoid a fifth straight loss to Michigan, especially not with the health of star WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both up in the air right now. I'm also skeptical of Texas A&M, a team that's been getting away with it for a while now and has to head to Austin to take on a red-hot Arch Manning and Co.
I have Ohio State finishing at 11-1 and losing out on a three-way tiebreaker for the second spot in the Big Ten title game to Oregon. Similarly, A&M's loss has it missing out on a spot in the SEC title game to Georgia and Alabama. Texas Tech should roll to a Big 12 title, with neither a trip to West Virginia nor a championship game rematch against BYU posing much of any threat.
Of course, that leaves two autobids remaining for the next two highest-ranked conference champions. In the ACC, I have SMU and Virginia heading to Charlotte (after Pitt loses to Miami), with the Mustangs taking the crown and vaulting into the final bracket. And you know we have to throw the Group of 5 at least something of a bone, so give me Tulane for the 12th and final spot, beating North Texas in the AAC title game.
Projected CFP first round
As a reminder, the first four seeds get a bye into the quarterfinals, while seeds No. 5-8 each host a first-round game at their home stadium. All of which should set up a very, very entertaining weekend of football, highlighted by a clash of titans.
Lower seed | Higher seed |
|---|---|
No. 12 Tulane | No. 5 Texas A&M |
No. 11 SMU | No. 6 Oregon |
No. 10 Alabama | No. 7 Ohio State |
No. 9 Oklahoma | No. 8 Notre Dame |
Projected CFP quarterfinal
And here's how the bracket would shake out from there:
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas A&M at No. 4 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 1 Indiana
No. 11 SMU/No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Texas Tech
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ohio State at No. 2 Georgia
Alabama in the Horseshoe, with the winner taking on Georgia? Oklahoma in South Bend? A potential SEC showdown between Playoff newcomers A&M and Ole Miss? Sign us up. Now, let's get to picking some winners.
Which team would win it all in this hypothetical CFP?
First round
All due respect to Jon Sumrall and Co., but I think the moment will be a bit too much for Tulane to make waves (sorry) here. Mike Elko's defense is just too ferocious, and this Green Wave defense has been a bit too susceptible to big plays to keep Kevin Concepcion and Mario Craver in check for 60 minutes. I'm also skeptical that SMU can hang in Autzen; they're more a product of a very weak ACC, and anyone who watched last year's first round knows how quickly Kevin Jennings can throw you out of a game in a hostile environment.
The other two first-round matchups were much tougher to parse. I don't have enough faith in a very clunky Oklahoma offense to hang against Jeremiyah Love and Co.; I think the Irish are simply the deeper, more well-balanced team, even if Brent Venables with weeks to prepare could have young CJ Carr in hell. I'm also taking Ohio State over Alabama by the slimmest of margins, mostly because I trust the Buckeye defense just a hair more. These two bluebloods are similar in a lot of ways, from a relentlessly efficient passing attack to an inability to run the ball, and one big Ty Simpson INT could swing a nail-biter of a game.
Winners: No. 5 Texas A&M, No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 8 Notre Dame
Quarterfinals
That sets up a star-studded quarterfinal round: A&M against Ole Miss, Notre Dame against Indiana, Oregon against Texas Tech and Ohio State against Georgia.
It doesn't feel great to go all chalk here, but nevertheless. A&M remains too unproven against top-tier competition, and I think the Rebels will be able to run the ball successfully and keep Marcel Reed on the sidelines. I trust Indiana to keep Love in check, at least enough for Fernando Mendoza to make enough plays. Oregon needs to prove more physically before I think they can hang with Texas Tech, while Georgia's defense just feels like a tough matchup for this one-dimensional Buckeye offense.
Winners: No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 1 Indiana, No. 3 Texas Tech, No. 2 Georgia
Semifinals
Keep doubting the Hoosiers all you want, but they've past every test and more than looked the part of a national title contender to this point. Ole Miss is game themselves, but I think Curt Cignetti's team can hold up in the trenches and put stress on Trinidad Chambliss to make big-time throws I'm not quite sure he's capable of. Indiana has the better quarterback and is better in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Before the SEC partisans get too up in arms, though, don't worry: You'll still be represented in the national title game. Texas Tech has been awfully impressive to date, but how much do we really trust QB Behren Morton in a spot like this? Georgia represents a big step up in weight class from the Big 12, and without the ability to manhandle opponents, I'm not sure the Red Raiders offense can avoid short-circuiting enough to keep up with Gunnar Stockton.
Winners: No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Georgia
National championship
All of which brings us to the end of the line, with No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia for the national title. The Hoosiers have hardly faltered all year, while the Dawgs are peaking at the perfect time, so this matchup feels right.
I really want to pull the trigger on Indiana here, as I think this team is more than capable of hanging in this game. But Georgia's defense is just getting better and better, and if Stockton can continue making magic happen the way he has of late, it's just going to be very hard to beat this team. Make it a third national title for Kirby Smart, which will start putting him into some very exclusive conversations.
Winner: No. 2 Georgia