Smart NFL teams understand that spending big in free agency is an inefficient way to build a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Deals can be found on the open market, but the vast majority of veterans who receive sizable deals are going to be overpaid.
This year's crop of veterans is no different. There are some quality options available for discerning NFL front offices, but most of the available players have obvious flaws. As expected, the best players in the league are typically retained by the franchises that draft them. But, from Alec Pierce to Malik Willis, there are plenty of free-agent contracts that could backfire this offseason.
Alec Pierce is going to be paid like a superstar that he isn't
Alec Pierce is a good wide receiver who deserves to land a big deal in free agency. He is not, however, a bona fide No. 1 option for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. That's the sort of contract he's going to land in free agency.
The Colts desperately want to keep Pierce in the fold, but he's going to hit free agency as the consensus No. 1 wideout in this year's class. His ability to produce explosive big plays over the top is a valuable skill in the modern NFL. Those splash plays will likely earn him a contract that will pay him close to $30 million per season.
Pierce will help the team that signs him, but he will not suddenly blossom into a true No. 1 wideout. He will be paid like one which will leave his new franchise with buyer's remorse in the coming years.
Kenneth Walker III is too inconsistent for the money he'll get
FanSided's No. 7-ranked free agent's inconsistency is going to cash him on winning a Super Bowl title as the MVP in the NFL's biggest game. That triumph will paper over Kenneth Walker's inconsitency at the running back position.
Walker excels at producing big plays from the running back position, but his feast-or-famine style isn't a good fit for a lot of teams looking to sign him. Combine that with his lack of ability to contribute in the passing game as a blocker or receiver and it's easy to see his lack of efficiency as a player.
That won't stop him from earning $13 or $14 million per season on a multi-year deal. His surface statistics might justify that contract, but no one should be surprised if he ends up being a decent starter rather than a superstar on his next deal.
Malik Willis will be the biggest gamble in this free agent class
Anyone who tells you they know exactly what Malik Willis will be for the rest of his pro career is either a genius or a liar. Some team will pay him big money to be their starting quarterback even though his sample size as a starter is remarkably small.
In fairness, Willis' contract could turn into a real bargain if he turns into a league average starter at the game's most important position. He could also turn into the next Justin Fields. That sort of deal could prove disastrous for the team that entrusts WIllis to lead their offense in 2026.
Willis has a chance to earn over $30 million per season on his new contract. That's the cost of doing business in today's NFL but it doesn't make it an efficient contract for the team that inks the former Packers star.
The Colts are over a barrel with Daniel Jones
The Colts have slapped the transition tag on Daniel Jones, which means he could make just under $38 million to be the team's starter next season. That might be a reasonable contract for Jones if he were healthy. The fact that he's coming off a significant Achilles injury makes it a poor decision by the Indianapolis front office.
The Colts would argue they don't have a lot of quality options at their disposal. Jones led them to a brilliant start to their 2025 campaign which caused them to go all-in on building around him to forge a Super Bowl contender. His injury ended those dreams prematurely but left the Colts short of assets to secure a new signal-caller this offseason.
It's fair to wonder whether the idea of paying Kyler Murray the minimum might be superior than paying Jones such a premium. The Colts aren't going to make a big shift at quarterback which means they will be the team that pays Jones far more than his market value.
John Franklin-Myers will be overpaid due to lack of depth at defensive tackle
Defensive tackle is one of the thinnest positions in this year's free agent class. That puts the best of the bunch, John Franklin-Myers at a great position to cash in with a team that's desperate to land a quality starter.
Franklin-Myers is an above-average player but he's nothing special. Giving him a sizeable, multi-year deal as he enters his 30s carries sizable risk for the team that lands him.
It's unlikely that Franklin-Myers' contract is going to break the bank which means it won't kill the team that commits to it. It's still likely to age poorly in short order. Teams looking for help at defnsive tackle would be better served focusing on the draft rather than overpaying this year's free agent class.