The 2025 NFL Draft saw several QB-needy teams surprisingly slow-play the position, content to keep their powder dry until next offseason ... when, the theory went, Texas phenom Arch Manning would be eligible to go pro.
But that grand master plan had a big wrench thrown into it on Thursday, when Arch's grandfather, former NFL QB Archie, told Texas Monthly that he thought his grandson would likely stick around Texas for two more years — meaning he wouldn't declare for the draft until 2027. Oops.
NEW: Archie Manning predicts grandson Arch will not declare for 2026 NFL Draft:
— On3 (@On3sports) August 7, 2025
"Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas."
(via @TexasMonthly)https://t.co/hawuy5yH43 pic.twitter.com/EjzDo7vv3E
The writing has been on the wall here for a while now: Both Peyton and Eli both spent four years at Tennessee and Ole Miss, respectively, and the NIL landscape has changed the game such that there's far less urgency for someone like Arch to go pro as soon as he possibly can.
But while that's brutal news for a team like, say, the Cleveland Browns, which were planning on being thoroughly awful in 2025, it's great news for a handful of teams that might not truly bottom out until a couple of years from now. Here are five teams who's odds of lucking into Manning just skyrocketed with this news.
5. Indianapolis Colts
A Manning in Indianapolis does seem fitting, doesn't it? And it feels more likely in 2027 than 2026, for a couple of reasons. The Colts are currently mired in the world's most uninspiring QB competition between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, but no matter who winds up winning the job, the floor will likely be high enough to prevent Indy from truly bottoming out this season. The 2026 campaign, however, is a whole different story.
One more year without a playoff berth could signal the end for both head coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard, as well as starting from scratch at the quarterback position. A team with an entirely new regime and no long-term answer at QB would figure to be one of, if not the, worst teams in the league in 2026 ... just in time to snag a very high pick in a draft featuring Manning at the top. It feels dirty to reward Indianapolis with such good fortune through nothing but their own incompetence, but hey, that's how they got Peyton too.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders acquired Geno Smith in hopes of vaulting into contention as soon as possible. But it's also worth remembering that the extension he signed this offseason allows the team to get out of it as soon as 2026 without incurring a massive dead cap hit — unless Smith performs like a star and leads Vegas on a playoff run, this is most likely a short-term arrangement.
The most plausible scenario is that Pete Carroll and Co. will try to be as competitive as they can both this year and in 2026. The 2027 offseason could be one of big change, though: Smith would have no guaranteed money left on his deal, allowing the Raiders to move on and pivot toward finding a more permanent solution in the draft. Getting toward the top of the board might take some doing unless Smith and the Vegas offense really bottom out, but that's not exactly impossible, and the Raiders haven't been afraid of taking big swings in the past. Plus, the AFC West always promises a tough schedule.
3. Miami Dolphins
Speaking of teams who can move on from their erstwhile franchise QB just in time for Manning to become available! Granted, it'll cost the Dolphins much more to cut ties with Tua Tagovailoa, but the principle is the same: While Miami is unlikely to bottom out this season, next year could bring a real reckoning, one that might very well have the team picking at the very top of the draft
Tyreek Hill will almost certainly be gone after the 2026 season, and Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips may well follow him out the door. The bill has been coming due for this team for a little while now, and two years from now could be when they choose to finally bottom out — especially considering how much the could save by moving on from Tagovailoa. Miami would clear out $36.6 million in cap space in 2027 and over $50 million in 2028, all while clearing space for a new franchise QB to enter via the draft. Say what you will about Mike McDaniel, but the thought of him getting to work with a talent like Manning is awfully enticing.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
This one just makes too much sense (well, for Pittsburgh at least; unclear how the Manning family would feel about potentially being paired up with Arthur Smith). Pittsburgh has decided to ride the Aaron Rodgers roller coaster for 2025, a move that will raise their floor considerably and likely take them out of the running for a top-three pick in next year's draft.
But by 2026, they'll likely be back to square one at the quarterback position, at which point Mike Tomlin may finally be forced to stomach his first losing season. Rather than desperately cling to .500, the Steelers could instead use the 2026 season as an excuse to hit the reset button, entering the 2027 draft with a hole at QB and a high pick with which to fill it.
1. Los Angeles Rams
This might be the best-case scenario for neutral observers and the worst-case scenario for everyone in the NFC. But really, it's not too hard to imagine: While the Rams figure to make one more run at a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford this season, it seems unlikely that he'll be returning to Los Angeles for his age-38 season in 2026. Rather than try to fill that massive hole under center right away, the Rams could instead see an opportunity to take their medicine, continue stockpiling young talent and put themselves in a position to draft Manning in 2027. Plus, you can bet Arch's family would be willing to run the old Eli playbook to engineer his way to Los Angeles and the Sean McVay QB incubator.