The 2026 NFL Draft will probably pale in the comparison to the dramatic highs of the 2024 NFL Draft, when Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye led a run of six quarterbacks selected within the top 12. But it will also be better than the weak 2025 class, especially if Texas Longhorns phenom Arch Manning keeps with expectations and goes pro after his junior season.
And yet, we cannot get ahead of ourselves. Manning is 21 years old and he has only a handful of starts under his belt. Quinn Ewers led the Longhorns offense these past couple years, with Manning mostly seeing the field for situational advantages, rather than as a steadfast option. We can debate all day about whether that was the right strategy from Steve Sarkisian, but it is what it is. The simple truth is that Manning arrives in his junior campaign as a Heisman Trophy favorite with very little meaningful collegiate experience.
So can we actually count on him entering the 2026 NFL Draft? His uncles, Peyton and Eli, were four-year stars in college and benefitted from that extended runway. Perhaps Manning takes his time, maximizes his development, and waits until the 2027 NFL Draft. That certainly sounds like a possibility based on his latest comments.
Arch Manning refuses to acknowledge 2026 NFL Draft option right now
"I’m really just worried about getting through this interview and then getting through the run tomorrow,” Manning told reporters when asked about his NFL future (h/t NBC Sports). “I’m just focused on this year and getting better each day."
Whether this is actually true or not, we may never know. But Manning is deploying a media strategy we've heard for decades. "I'm not thinking about that big, important decision I need to make in six months. Definitely not." Manning almost certainly has thought about the draft, but his approach is the correct one. Keep the focus on this season, put together the best campaign he can, and then make a decision based on the results.
Arch Manning still has a lot to prove to NFL scouts
Manning is the projected No. 1 pick in most 2026 mock drafts. That's a huge paycheck and opportunity to pass up. But it is also contingent on his actual performance this season. Again, most of the Manning hype right now is hypothetical. We've seen him in small doses, but none of Manning's few starts last season were all that impressive. He certainly didn't do enough to steal the job from a more experienced Ewers, despite the constant wave of complaints about Ewers' job security.
The surface level numbers are impressive enough — a 67.8 percent completion rate with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions — but Manning's overall game management skills need work. He should get more comfortable with more first team reps and the experience inherent to a full season as starting quarterback, but there will be competition atop the 2026 draft. That is assuming he even stays in, which is no longer viewed as the guarantee it was once assumed to be.
Manning is plenty talented and he will attract NFL scouts like moths to a flame all season, but lets pump the breaks on the hype train a little bit and let him actually perform before we let our imaginations run amok.