The Jacksonville Jaguars quickly ascended the AFC ladder last season under new head coach Liam Coen. A first-round postseason exit put a damper on the whole experience, but the Jags were one of the most well-rounded and competitive two-way teams in the NFL — and there's still so much room to improve. With Trevor Lawrence coming into his own and Travis Hunter due for a second-year leap in a more defined role, the Jags are probably more of a real-deal contender.
Even so, Jacksonville has hard decisions to make, starting with the future of former first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. The talented wideout put up 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, but his production waned in year two. He finished with 707 yards and two touchdowns on almost half as many receptions (48). That puts him on trade radars, with the Las Vegas Raiders lurking as a potential destination.
Potential Raiders-Jaguars Brian Thomas Jr. trade framework
Las Vegas acquired two first-round picks in the Maxx Crosby trade, giving the Raiders four first-rounders over the next two years. Sure, the Raiders can just keep the picks and build through the draft, but the extra ammo also opens up trade avenues that did not previously exist.
The market was set this week when Chicago dealt DJ Moore to Buffalo in exchange for a second-round pick. Given Thomas' relative youth and superior production (not to mention a more affordable contract with three years of control), the Jags can easily stand firm on a first-round pick as their asking price. If other teams balk, the Raiders are primed to pounce.
Why the Jaguars do this trade
Jacksonville is under no immediate pressure to trade Thomas, but there's reason to consider it for the right price. Thomas committed 10 drops last season and lost ground in the offensive pecking order under a new head coach. That's not to say Coen does not believe in Thomas, or that there isn't a path back to his sensational rookie numbers. Simply put, however, the Jags are set at receiver — with or without Thomas.
Jakobi Meyers arrived in Jacksonville midseason (from the Raiders, ironically) and performed well enough to earn a new contract. Parker Washington experienced a huge breakout and became one of Trevor Lawrence's most trusted targets overnight. Plus, Travis Hunter is healthy now. The Jags plan to use him more as a cornerback this season, but the reigning No. 2 pick won't be phased out of the offense entirely.
The Jaguars are in a position to cash in on Thomas' upside without severely compromising their offense. Coen didn't necessarily put Thomas in the doghouse last season, but his confidence waned and Jacksonville's treatment of him clearly changed. If the organization is not fully committed to seeing Thomas' development through, trading him now — before his value can fizzle even more — is smart business.
Why the Raiders do this trade
The Raiders' decision to trade Jakobi Meyers last season was the right move for a rebuilding team, but it left them without a proper lead receiver. Now comes Fernando Mendoza, the consensus No. 1 pick and the best quarterback prospect of the last couple years. If the tape at Indiana was any indication, Mendoza should pick things up quickly at the next level. His IQ and work ethic is top tier.
So much of quarterback development in the NFL, however, goes beyond talent. You need the right environment to promote growth, which means a strong offensive line (one of Vegas' top priorities this summer) and competent wideouts. The run game should blossom with Ashton Jeanty, but Thomas gives Mendoza an elite vertical threat who can take the lid off a defense and generate those explosive plays.
This trade still leaves Las Vegas with two first-round picks this April (perhaps another wide receiver at No. 14?) and their own pick next year, so it's not like their stores are emptied out. Moreover, it's a sign of how serious this new front office, under the guidance of minority owner Tom Brady, is about winning football games in Sin City.
The Raiders are equipped with significant cap space, too. Thomas is still on his rookie deal for a few more years, so Las Vegas can add him, pick up their franchise quarterback and another foundational talent in the draft, and hammer the open market this offseason in pursuit of further upgrades up and down the roster.
Thomas needs a change of scenery and a team that's willing to embrace his immense talent. The Raiders are best equipped to pay a premium, and Thomas couldn't ask for a much better long-term partner on paper than Mendoza. This trade has significant win-win potential, but the upside is definitely highest for the Raiders.