How the CFP quarterfinals have shaken up the NFL Draft quarterback market

There was a time when I was convinced that Ty Simpson was the No. 2 quarterback in this upcoming NFL draft class. I would invite you all to roast me for that, but chances are that many of you also felt that way. Simpson was playing excellent football earlier in the fall and looked like he could be a top-20 NFL quarterback.

That's no longer the case. A poor run to end the year, including a complete no-show in the CFP quarterfinal loss to Indiana, has killed Simpson's draft stock. At the same time, strong play from two other quarterbacks in this class has shaken up the draft board, throwing things into disarray as we head into next week's CFP semifinal.

(Okay, maybe disarray was too strong a word.)

Here's how the CFP quarterfinals have changed things — or not changed things — when it comes to the quarterback position for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Fernando Mendoza proves he's No. 1 pick material

We start with the one thing that has not changed: Fernando Mendoza is the best quarterback in this class.

The Heisman winner was almost flawless against Alabama, going 14-for-16 for 192 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 victory. Through two years of the expanded playoff, he's the only quarterback to lead a team with a first-round bye to a playoff victory. In a system that seems to put good teams at a disadvantage because they've had too much time off, Mendoza was able to rise above and show why he'll be the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.

(Is this where the caveat of "as long as Arch Manning doesn't declare" goes? Most people expect Manning to return to Texas for one more season, but his huge showing in the bowl game against Michigan might lead to some rethinking of that plan, as he would have a great shot to do first overall over Mendoza.)

Dante Moore is the clear No. 2

It took me way too long to finally come to the realization that I feel like a lot of people have had: Dante Moore is the second-best quarterback in this class, by a very wide margin.

Moore was a mystery heading into this season. His previous attempt at starting with UCLA was a disaster, and it wasn't clear that he would have what it took to lead Oregon the way that Bo Nix and DIllon Gabriel had.

But Moore has more than proven he has what it takes. Sure, he didn't throw a touchdown in the shutout win over Texas Tech, but he mostly made smart decisions with the ball. I'm not sold on Moore as a star in the NFL in the way I'm sold on Mendoza, but he's the clear No. 2 quarterback in this class and a number of teams need a quarterback. His performance against the Red Raiders might not have improved his draft stock, but it definitely didn't hurt.

Ty Simpson's struggles could lead to free fall

I, uhh, think we might be done here, as Ty Simpson was 12-for-16 for 67 yards in a playoff game before he was taken out due to a hard hit. Backup Austin Mack wasn't much better, so obvious credit here to Indiana's defense, but still...this being the last real game action that scouts get to see of Simpson is a bad sign for his future.

At this point, you have to wonder if Simpson — who not that long ago was in the conversation to go second overall — even declares. Alabama is probably ready to move on, but Simpson might be smart to hop in the transfer portal and try to rebuild his stock elsewhere ahead of 2027.

The issue, at least lately, has been inconsistency. You never know if you'll get a good performance like his first-round showing against Oklahoma or a bad one like his SEC Championship Game nightmare against Georgia. Accuracy is supposed to be his biggest strength, but we've seen some fairly bad throws over the last two months.

If Simpson still declares, where does he get drafted? Teams like Arizona and Cleveland have top 10 picks and need a quarterback, but I imagine Simpson's stock has fallen enough that neither would want to take him that early. Maybe Pittsburgh takes a shot later in the first? Maybe Cleveland waits and hopes Simpson falls to them with their second first-round pick?

Carson Beck might be the biggest riser

Draft pundits have largely agreed that quarterback talent in this class falls off swiftly after the top three, but there's a chance that Carson Beck is playing his way not only into separation from the John Mateer-Garrett Nussmeier tier but into consideration for the role of No. 3 quarterback in this class.

Beck showed a lot in the 24-14 win over Ohio State. Sure, he only threw for 138 yards and one touchdown, but it came against an elite Buckeyes defense that hadn't given up more than 16 points in a game all season. He showed plenty of poise in that contest, and now has a chance to push deeper into the postseason, continuing his potential rise. Beck is hitting his stride right as the bottom fell out on Simpson's draft stock, and that might be enough to push Beck into the bottom of the first round, as long as he doesn't have a meltdown against Ole Miss.

Trinidad Chambliss has improved his draft stock as well

Here's a Friday morning addition to this piece. I thought I was safe to come to all these conclusions before Ole Miss/Georgia, because neither quarterback felt like much of a prospect. Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss was viewed as a Day 3 pick at best, largely because he's undersized and only has one season at the Division I level under his belt.

But Chambliss went out there and dominated Georgia, leading Ole Miss to the semifinals with a 39-34 win. He picked the defense apart, going 30-for-46 for 362 yards and two touchdowns, including a huge fourth-quarter strike to Harrison Wallace III to put the Rebels up 10.

Chambliss stepped up when it mattered. He showed an innate ability to extend plays, including doing this:

I understand the concerns with Chambliss, but when you watch him play football, you're left amazed by what you're seeing. It's very possible that Chambliss is simply just a very good college quarterback whose skills won't translate, but a team might be wise to take a shot on him in the second or third round in hopes that he can harness what he's shown and refine his skills enough to make him a viable NFL starter.

More NFL news and analysis: