I don't know about the rest of the football fans out there, but it took me a good three or four days to recover from last weekend's NFL Wild Card games. Part of that has to do with the fact that we had a run of certified bangers to start the weekend that showed no regard for favorites or points spreads.
All four Divisional Round matchups are full of intrigue, and it's not a stretch to say that every game could go either way. What we need, then, are some bold predictions. Last week's column would have been perfect if only the Chargers hadn't let us down, but thankfully, Justin Herbert and company are home and can't hurt us anymore.
When the playoff field was set and Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow were all left home, there was some hand-wringing over the possibility that this postseason would be less interesting without them. Wild Card weekend proved that couldn't be further from the truth, but a dynamite Division Round could take us to another level. Without further ado, here are the picks.
Josh Allen leads the Bills past the rusty Broncos
The Broncos lost only one game at home all year on their way to a 14-3 record and the 1-seed in the AFC. This isn't your typical juggernaut, though. Not counting a Week 18 win against a Chargers team that was resting its starters, Denver's previous seven, and 11 of its 13 other wins, all came by one score. Many times, it took a second-half comeback to secure the W.
There's nothing wrong with starting slow as long you finish strong (just look at the Bears for proof). It's a concern though that Sean Payton's group is coming off a first-round bye. Rust has been a real factor for 1-seeds since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff field in 2020. Only six of 10 1-seeds have survived their first playoff game, and keep in mind that all of them played a team that was a 4-seed or worse. Take the Chiefs out of that equation and the 1-seeds' record drops to 3-4.
Like a child who checks their closet at night and realizes the boogeyman isn't in there, the Bills are operating with newfound confidence now that the specter of Mahomes and the Chiefs no longer looms over them. Last week they went into Jacksonville and ended the Jags' eight-game winning streak. Most of those wins were by lopsided margins, but the Bills were just tougher in the end.
That's what happens when you have the best quarterback in the world. He may not be in this year's conversation to repeat as MVP, but make no mistake, Josh Allen is the guy. He's the one quarterback you don't ever want to be against, and the one with whom you'd feel the most comfortable getting a win in any environment.
It's going to be cold and windy in Denver on Saturday, but if there's one team in the AFC who's happier than the Broncos to hear that, it's the Bills. Allen has earned that trust, while the Broncos and Bo Nix haven't yet.
The same Jaguars squad that Buffalo just out-gutted on the road came into Denver a few weeks ago and blew the Broncos out of their own stadium. The Jags have the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL, the Broncos rank second. James Cook will again have trouble finding room, but I trust Allen to find a way. Nix is good for at least one turnover in this one, and the Bills will advance.
Bills 24, Broncos 17
The Seahawks play it safe and win a low-scoring one against the 49ers
While the Bills and Broncos haven't met yet this year, the Seahawks and 49ers are well-versed with each other. They opened the season with a meeting at Lumen Field that the Niners pulled out late, then closed with a winner-take-all match for the 1-seed at Levi's Stadium, only this time the Seahawks got some road revenge.
That game was just two weeks ago, and I believe it's indicative of how this one will go. Seattle smothered Kyle Shanahan's dynamic offense, holding the Niners to just three points, nine first downs and 173 total yards. There are some key differences between then and now, though. On the plus side for San Fran, Trent Williams made his return against the Eagles last week and made his presence felt. Unfortunately, George Kittle went down with a torn Achilles, but that could be countered somewhat if Ricky Pearsall, as expected, comes back from his lingering leg and ankle issues.
The Niners gutted out a win against the Eagles last week, but you could argue that they were lucky to do so. AJ Brown dropped at least three big potential catches and the Eagles shot themselves in the foot with penalties, and yet it still took a late drive for the Niners to get the lead.
Brock Purdy made plays when he needed to, but he also threw two ugly interceptions. The 49er run defense also gave up over 100 yards on the ground to Saquon Barkley. These are things that Seattle can take advantage of. They have a better defense than the Eagles do, and in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, they should be able to control the clock and keep the chains moving. Those two combined for 33 carries and 171 yards on the ground two weeks ago, and I'm not sure what has changed in the time since.
The reason to pick against the Seahawks in these playoffs is Sam Darnold, who's had his worst moments in some of the biggest spots he's faced. He's come through late in the year though, never more so than when he led a comeback against the Rams in Week 16 to wrest control of the division and the 1-seed away from the Rams in a wild comeback win.
The Seahawks will be smart with Darnold, not only because he hit the injury report this week with an oblique strain, but because they don't need him to throw for 300 yards to win this game. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will keep it third-and-short, and not ask for him to do much outside of make high-percentage throws. The ground game and the defense will do the rest, and the valiant 49ers will finally go down.
Seahawks 23, 49ers 10
The Texans can't overcome the loss of Nico Collins against the more complete Patriots
There are more than a few similarities between the Texans and Patriots. Unlike the other teams that advanced last week, neither Houston or New England had to sweat their games out late in the fourth quarter. Both rode dominant defenses to victory, giving up just three field goals combined, but both also overcame shaky quarterback performances in which CJ Stroud and Drake Maye had real trouble holding on to the ball.
Maye threw one interception and fumbled twice, while Stroud threw a pick of his own and fumbled an incomprehensible five times, losing two of them. Whichever team wins the turnover battle will be in good shape in this one, and that's an area that the Texans excel. While the Patriots are just barely positive in turnover margin this year, the Texans are second in the NFL behind the ball-hawking Bears.
In a vacuum, I believe Houston has a better defense, but the Patriots looked fast and physical in roughing up Justin Herbert in the Wild Card Round. The difference between these two units isn't as big as you'd think. Offensively, however, the Patriots have more weapons. Maye is going to finish top-two at worst in the MVP race, and unlike Stroud, he'll have his No. 1 receiver, Stefon Diggs. Stroud will be without Nico Collins after the two-time Pro Bowler suffered a concussion on Monday. The quick turnaround time didn't do his recovery any favors, and he's already been ruled out.
Without Collins, it's difficult to envision Houston being able to stretch the field and move the ball. Their running game is mediocre, and besides, the Patriots have a top-six run defense. That's going to equal a lot of third and long for Stroud, and I don't see him having the time to stand in the pocket and wait for his guys to get open. Maye will be under pressure too, but I trust his decision-making and athleticism more.
The recipe for the Texans needs to be exactly what they did to the Steelers — keep it low-scoring and count on the defense to either give them a short field or score outright. Maye was less-than-stellar in his first career playoff game, but his ability to pick up first downs with his legs will keep drives alive. As long as he doesn't try to do too much, he should be able to lead the Patriots to their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 2019.
Patriots 17, Texans 12
The Bears continue their Cinderella story by freezing out the Rams
The final game of the Divisional Round is a fun one, as the Rams are leaving balmy L.A. to head to frigid Soldier Field. Much has been made this week about the Bears practicing outdoors in the elements, with Bears fans hoping for a sub-zero avalanche to be the great equalizer against a really good team.
The Rams traveled east last week and barely escaped Carolina with a win, so for as much as they're still talked about as Super Bowl contenders, this team is far from invincible, especially away from home. They lost three of their last four road games to end the regular season, and none of those games were played in conditions resembling what they'll face this week.
Sean McVay has a veritable arsenal to work with. Matthew Stafford has put up an MVP-caliber season, and while he has the all-world duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to throw to, he also benefits from having Kyren Williams and an outstanding offensive line and tight end group.
For most of the year, the only way the Bears have stopped anybody has been to take the ball away from them. Fortunately for them, they were the best in the league at doing that, and they'll have a chance to get Stafford, who became surprisingly careless with the ball late in the year. In fact, he's thrown seven picks since Week 13's game, compared to just two in the 12 weeks before that.
As most Bears games have been this year, their Wild Card win over the Packers was a tale of two halves. In the first, they let Green Bay walk up and down the field, but they stiffened up in the second half by taking away the run and continually forcing the Packers to go three-and-out. Neither Jaylon Johnson nor Kyler Gordon are fully healthy, but they improved greatly as that game went on. With another week to get right, they should be even better on Sunday.
Will this be the week that Ben Johnson lets Caleb Williams loose from the outset? All too often this year, the Bears have muddled through the first half, only to allow Caleb to put on his Superman cape in the second and lead them to improbable win after improbable win. It's tempting to say that style is unsustainable, but somehow, he just keeps doing it.
Some people get on Caleb for having a low completion percentage, but anyone who watches the games understands that he makes more wow plays than anyone in the league. In last week's second half alone he provided a season's worth of highlights. As he continues to get the fundamentals down, it seems clear that even the sky might not be the limit. The question is, can he go toe-to-toe with Stafford in this, just his second year, and get it done?
I'll admit that I'm in the bag for the Bears, but they couldn't ask for a better setup here. The weather is going to be a huge advantage, and this team has shown that they're never, ever out of a game. Soldier Field was literally shaking last week, and the Rams have not been inspiring when they have to leave SoFi Stadium. The Rams are 10th in sacks, but with an excellent offensive line protecting him and an escape artist's mentality, it's been almost impossible to get Caleb down. He's also thrown less picks than Stafford this year, so the Rams can't count on turning him over.
One of these days, falling behind early is going to bite the Bears. That may well happen here, but you could also say that if they ever put together 60 minutes of their best football, they're capable of beating anyone. With a critical home-field advantage, the high of eliminating the hated Packers and a real "team of destiny" energy, they're going to keep this Cinderella run going.
Bears 24, Rams 23