The calendar says that Christmas took place on Dec. 25, but as far as I'm concerned, the real holiday is just beginning. That's because the NFL playoffs are here, and the Wild Card Round features six extremely interesting games.
Storylines abound, from the Bears and Packers somehow meeting for just the third time ever in the playoffs, to the 12-5 Rams having to go on the road to face an 8-9 Panthers team that already beat them. Elsewhere, we have Christian McCaffrey vs. Saquon Barkley, Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert vs. Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, and two AFC games in Bills-Jaguars and Texans-Steelers that might barely look like the same sport because of the point disparity we could see in them.
No matter if you have a dog in the fight or not, the playoffs are always a blast. That should be especially true this year, which has been one of the most wide-open in recent memory. No team is a huge favorite, and with no Chiefs, Ravens or Lions, some room at the table has been made for new faces.
During the regular season, this column made four bold predictions each week, with a pretty solid overall success rate. Those picks usually touched on the most important games of the week, but now, every game is life or death. That's why we're super-sizing it this time around with six bold predictions, one for each game. Let's get into it, beginning with the first two games, both in the NFC, on Saturday.
The Panthers keep it close but can't repeat their upset of the Rams
The public perception of these two teams couldn't be more different. On the one hand, you have the Panthers, who had to rely on the Falcons beating the Saints just to slip into the playoffs. And on the other you have the Rams, who many see as being the favorite to come out of the NFC.
A road team being a double-digit favorite in the playoffs is an extremely rare occurrence, but it's not surprising in this case given the two teams' records. Still, how do you square that with what happened in Week 13? That wasn't so long ago, and the Panthers not only went toe-to-toe with the Rams, they beat them straight up.
Bryce Young outplayed possible MVP winner Matthew Stafford in that one, as he threw three touchdowns and completed 75 percent of his passes. Stafford threw two touchdowns of his own, but also two interceptions. Before that game, he'd only thrown two picks all season, but from Week 13 on, he threw six in his final six games. In fact, take away his two games against the pathetic Cardinals (in which he totaled seven touchdowns and no picks), and he finished the year with six touchdowns and six picks in four games. That's hardly MVP stuff.
The Rams come into this one having lost three of their last four road games. Not only has Stafford had some uncharacteristically shaky moments, the defense has also taken a step back from the way it played earlier in the year. In their first eight games, L.A. gave up 21 points or more just twice. In the nine games since, it's happened five times.
Even in their wins, the Rams have been extremely generous to opposing receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Michael Wilson have all lit them up in the back half of the season, and though Tet McMillan only had one catch in the first meeting for 43 yards, I think Dave Canales will try to get him the ball early and often.
Unless you believe the Panthers will just be happy to be here, this game feels like it will be closer than the spread. I think it'll still be in doubt in the fourth quarter, but this time the Rams hang on for the win.
Rams 26, Panthers 20
The Bears turn to the running game to beat the Packers
It's going to be cold and windy at Soldier Field tonight. There's even supposed to be some snow, creating a fitting setting for these two old NFC North rivals to battle it out. Both meetings this season came down to the very end, with the Packers intercepting Caleb Williams to seal a Week 14 win, but the Bears' second-year QB bounced back two weeks later to mount yet another wild fourth-quarter rally, eventually winning the game in overtime with one of the best throws any quarterback made all season, a 46-yard walk-off touchdown to DJ Moore.
Both of these defenses are vulnerable. The Packers are missing Micah Parsons for the rest of the year after he tore his ACL against the Broncos nearly a month ago. The Bears have been getting by with a seemingly endless supply of turnovers forced, but when they don't take the ball away, teams are able to walk it up and down the field on them, as we saw a couple of weeks ago when the 49ers hung 42 on them.
The Bears have been getting hammered in time of possession lately. That, combined with the weather, leads me to believe that Ben Johnson is going to employ a run-heavy gameplan. He has a two-headed monster in the backfield with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, and he'll use them to help keep Jordan Love off the field.
Speaking of Love, he hasn't played since suffering a concussion against the Bears three weeks ago. He's cleared to play now, but rust could be a factor. Malik Willis played extremely well in his stead. I don't think the Packers would ever go to Willis if Love started slow, but that's the kind of thing that could make the players on the sideline restless if Green Bay falls behind early.
Just like both previous meetings (and the two last year, which both ended on last-second field goals), this game seems certain to come down to the wire. The Bears have spent much of the season trailing early and coming back late, and that's a trend they desperately want to reverse, especially since their most recent comeback attempts have fallen short. I think they'll finally get an early lead, then lean on Swift and Monangai to carry them home. A rusty Love should still put up good numbers against a vulnerable Chicago secondary, but he's also likely to throw a pick or two. That and what's sure to be a wild Soldier Field crowd could make the difference.
Bears 27, Packers 24
Jacksonville starts hot but falls victim to a furious Josh Allen rally
On paper, this game looks like it should favor the Jaguars. They're playing at home, they've won eight straight, and Trevor Lawrence is finally looking like the franchise savior he was supposed to be when he was taken No. 1 overall in 2021. Travis Etienne ran for over 1,100 yards this year, and he gets to go against a Bills run defense that was abysmal for most of the season. Conversely, James Cook led the league in rushing, but he's facing the No. 1 run defense in the league.
Everyone knows the Bills can't match the top rosters in the league in terms of overall talent, but they have something nobody else does: Josh Allen. Last year's MVP put up similar numbers this year, and again and again, he's put on his Superman cape when his team has needed him most.
Allen took one snap to keep his consecutive game streak alive last week, but other than that, he got a much-needed week of rest for his ailing foot. He'll also have Dalton Kincaid to throw to, a huge development as the young tight end has dealt with an injury-plagued year.
The Jags are red-hot and feeling great about themselves, but they haven't been through the playoff pressure cooker the way the Bills have. Here's how I see it playing out: Jacksonville gets an early lead, let's say by 10 or 14 points, but then, just as he did against the Ravens to start the year and the Patriots four weeks ago, Allen does Allen things and wills his team back. The inexperienced Jags tighten up in the face of that onslaught in the second half, and the Bills win a wild one.
Bills 31, Jags 28
Christian McCaffrey's 175 all-purpose yards help the Niners upend the defending champs
It's amazing how fast the perception of the 49ers has changed. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like they wouldn't have to leave Levi's Stadium until their Super Bowl parade, but after a humbling 13-3 loss to the Seahawks last week, they're now sizable underdogs on the road at the Eagles.
Philly may be the defending Super Bowl champs, but I don't trust them. Hell, their own fans don't trust them. Take away last week's backup-laden loss to the Commanders and they're 3-3 in their last six games. Sure, they won the final three of those, but those wins came against the tanking Raiders, the dead-in-the-water Commanders, and a hobbled Josh Allen who almost engineered a miracle comeback anyway.
Vic Fangio's defense has been good lately, but they're going against a 49ers team that is coming off their worst offensive performance of the season. It seems incredibly unlikely that a Kyle Shanahan-coached team will lay an egg like that twice in a row.
When thinking about this game, I keep coming back to the Eagles' Black Friday loss to the Bears. Chicago ran the ball down their throats in that game, and with all due respect to D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, they're not Christian McCaffrey. CMC is going to get all the touches he can handle in this one, and I expect him to make the most of them. George Kittle is also one more week removed from his sprained ankle, so he'll be a major factor, as well.
The most important development for San Fran is that all-world left tackle Trent Williams, who is expected to be a game-time decision, has said that he's confident he'll play. That's huge for this offense, because they clearly missed his presence last week.
The Niners don't have much of a defense thanks to having too many injuries to count, but the Eagles haven't shown that they're equipped to take advantage. The offensive line hasn't been nearly as good as last year, and consequentially, Saquon Barkley has taken a big step back. Here's a weird stat: in Philly's 11 wins, Jalen Hurts has thrown for more than 200 yards just twice. Make of that what you will, but to me that means the Eagles have mostly been able to just lean on teams with their defense. That's not going to cut it against a dynamic Niners offense.
The Philly fans have been looking for any reason to throw this team under the bus, and if the Eagles fall behind early, we'll surely hear some boos raining down. If the Niners can start hot, they have what it takes to walk out of here with a win, and that's what I think will happen.
49ers 23, Eagles 14
The Chargers find a way to shock the Patriots
I'm going to be up front here — I don't know if I've picked a Chargers game correctly all season. This team confounds me, because they keep winning despite having a banged up offensive line and running back room. It feels like Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert have voodoo'ed their way to 11 wins, but that's why I'm zagging and picking them to upset the 2-seeded Patriots.
New England jumped from four wins last year to 13 this year. Mike Vrabel deserves all the credit in the world for turning things around in his first year in charge, as does MVP candidate Drake Maye for becoming so incredibly efficient in just his sophomore season. That being said, I don't think the Patriots are as good as their record indicates, because they played a historically easy schedule this year. They have exactly one win against a playoff team, their Week 5 upset of the Bills, but when they had the chance to sweep the season series, they blew a 21-0 lead at home.
The Chargers got hammered by the Texans in their only playoff game last year. Is that the start of a trend, or something they can learn from? I'm leaning towards the latter. Harbaugh is a great coach, and Herbert has been downright heroic through most of this season. Also, a little-known fact is that L.A. has allowed the lowest opposing quarterback rating in the league this year. Maye won't have as many openings to throw as he's used to.
The Patriots haven't faced many teams capable of fighting back against them, but this game is going to come down to the very end. In fact, let's go out on a limb and predict it goes to overtime. The Chargers will get the ball and score first, then Derwin James will pick Maye off in the end zone to seal a shocking upset. The young quarterback is well on his way to superstardom, but like Herbert last year, he has to take his playoff lumps first.
Chargers 31, Patriots 24 (OT)
The Texans extend Mike Tomlin's postseason winless streak in an ugly one at Pittsburgh
I'm not entirely sure how they keep doing it, but once again, the Steelers have clinched a winning record and made the playoffs. Most teams would kill to be perennially above .500, but don't tell that to Steelers fans, who have watched their team lose their last six playoff contests. That's a streak that dates all the way back to 2016, an interminably long time for one of the NFL's proudest franchises, and it's turning up the heat on Mike Tomlin.
Steelers fans are probably feeling better about their team right now than at any point this season, since they just beat the hated Ravens in a wild back-and-forth finish to clinch the division and a postseason spot. Aaron Rodgers gets a lot of hate, but there's no denying he looked fantastic in leading his team to two late touchdowns.
Now he has to face the Texans, though, and I don't think that's going to go so well for him. Houston has arguably the best secondary in the league, and with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, they can get to the quarterback. When Rodgers went against Myles Garrett two weeks ago, he got rid of the ball quicker than he had all season, and the result was just six points in a demoralizing loss.
One point in Pittsburgh's favor is that they'll have DK Metcalf back for this game after he was suspended for the matchups against the Browns and Ravens. Metcalf brings a field-stretching dimension to this offense, but I can't envision him getting loose for multiple big gains against DeMeco Ryans' guys.
The Texans have won nine straight coming into this one. That's largely been driven by their defense, but their offense has shown some big-play ability, too. CJ Stroud has more than just Nico Collins to throw to, as Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz have also played big roles in recent weeks. People think of the Steelers and think of defense, but they rank 26th in yards and 17th in points allowed.
Openings will be there for the Texans to make some plays, but Rodgers will have no such luxury.
Texans 24, Steelers 10