If you pick the favorites to win every single NFL game, you're going to have more success than failure, obviously, but the NFL isn't a sport where the team that's supposed to win does so all the time. Upsets are prevalent in this league that's full of parity, as we saw in the Wild Card Round, and I expect that to be no different in the Divisional Round.
With that being said, not all four games will end in an upset. There's a better chance in some games than others that an upset will occur. Let's dive in, using the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide.
4. San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
Betting against the San Francisco 49ers is a risk considering how well they've done despite all their injuries, but how, exactly, are they going to win this game? Everything favors the Seattle Seahawks.
The game will be played in Seattle. George Kittle is out. If either Ricky Pearsall or Fred Warner plays, neither will be close to 100 percent. The Niners just played on Sunday, meaning this will be a short week for them. The Seahawks will be rested, just two weeks removed from beating a healthier Niners team on the road with the No. 1 seed on the line.
To sum up, the Seahawks are healthier, have a better roster, are much more rested, and will be playing at home. Maybe Sam Darnold lays a massive egg, but I trust the Seahawks' defense and head coach to pull out a relatively stress-free victory.
3. Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
An argument can be made that the Chicago Bears don't deserve to be here. Yes, they outscored the Green Bay Packers 25-6 in the fourth quarter, but they were also dominated through the first three quarters. It was more extreme in this game, but this is how the Bears have played for much of the season. They've started slowly, only to finish with a flurry. Caleb Williams is as clutch as they come, and the Bears just find ways to get the job done.
I'm not going to say the Bears don't deserve to be here, but I will say their formula of starting slowly and relying on Williams to go Superman in the fourth quarter is not going to work against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams' offense is as good as any, and the Bears' defense is a mess. This one could get out of hand early.
I expect the Bears to start better than they did last week, and playing in freezing conditions will benefit them, but it's really hard to bet against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay against a vulnerable defense. The Bears starting strongly could change things, but I'd have to see that happen to believe they're capable of it.
2. Houston Texans (+3) at New England Patriots
This game could go either way, so it's only fitting that it's towards the top of the upset list. Mike Vrabel is an unbelievable coach and Drake Maye would be my MVP pick, so it's tough to pick against the New England Patriots, particularly at home, but the Houston Texans have a clear path to pulling off the upset.
It starts and ends with their historically great defense. The Texans' defense was as good as any in the regular season, and actually outscored the Pittsburgh Steelers' entire team, 12-6, on Wild Card Weekend. C.J. Stroud will have his hands full against a potent Patriots defense, but Maye figures to have an even tougher time against a much better Texans' defense.
As good as the Patriots are, the Texans are playing too well, and their defense is too potent for them to be overlooked.
1. Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are in a great spot on paper for this game. They got an additional week of rest as the AFC's No. 1 seed, and welcome the Buffalo Bills to Mile High after they just played an emotional game not even a full week ago. With that being said, the spread in this game is closer than any, and I think this game has the best chance of ending in an upset victory.
The reason why starts and ends with Josh Allen, the best quarterback in the sport. As long as you have a quarterback of Allen's caliber, you're going to be in just about any game. The Broncos have a ferocious defense and an outstanding head coach. They should also be able to run the ball at will against a weak Bills' run defense. Still, betting on Bo Nix to lead the Broncos to a win against a really good pass defense and Josh Allen on the other side is a bit too much to ask for, even with everything in his favor.
This could be seen as disrespectful to a No. 1 seed, but Allen is too good to be seen as an underdog, even if his supporting cast is underwhelming.