Coming into Wednesday night's matchup with USC, Ohio State needed to stop the bleeding after a three-game losing streak put them in a precarious position in ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology. According to Lunardi, the Buckeyes are the final team on the Last Four Byes list, which means they would be the last team in the field that does not have to play an extra game in the First Four in Dayton — leaving little room for error the rest of the season.
Currently, Lunardi has Ohio State as an 11-seed in the South Region, facing the six-seed Kansas Jayhawks with the potential for a rematch against No. 3 seed Kentucky in the second round, a team the Buckeyes upset in December. For a program that has failed to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons, this is not where you want to be when March rolls around, and not what the team had in mind when it removed the interim tag from Jake Diebler over the offseason.
Ohio State's NET ranking is 33, and the Buckeyes have six Quad 1 wins and four ranked wins to their credit. What could be Ohio State's biggest downfall, though, are its losses. Currently, the Buckeyes (16-13, 8-10 Big Ten) have more losses than the three teams ahead of them among Lunardi's Last Four Byes, as well as his Last Four In teams, which further complicates their case.
Can Ohio State turn things around and punch its ticket to the Big Dance?
The win over USC would at least suggest the Buckeyes are not going away yet. With a pair of games against bubble teams Nebraska and Indiana to close out the regular season, Ohio State has an opportunity to widen the gap between itself and its fellow Big Ten rivals. But their margin for error is more or less gone, especially with SEC teams Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia lurking. Although Georgia is in Lunardi's Next Four Out in his latest projection, all four teams are in consideration for the NCAA Tournament. With the depth of the SEC, you would have to think the committee is going to reward at least two of those four teams, if not more, due to the overall difficulty of the league.
With two games remaining, Ohio State's main focus should be on improving its seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Currently, the Buckeyes are the 10-seed, which will force them to play in the first round. Even if the Buckeyes move up one spot to the No. 9 seed, that would get them a first-round bye and some extra rest before likely having to win a couple games to ensure they receive an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.
The Big Ten may not have the quality of opponents throughout the league that the SEC does. However, if Ohio State can at least win one of its last two games and win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament, the Buckeyes will have a compelling case to make the field. Anything less than that, their fate will be in the hands of the selection committee, which is the last thing any team wants when they are waiting to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.