NHL players are heading to the Olympic Games for the first time in more than a decade, making hockey the most exciting sport on the Winter Olympics docket. After years of amateur players and overseas stars, we finally get to see Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews on the Olympic stage.
But it’s not just them. There are 12 teams of top-flight players looking to go home with the gold. While all the spotlight will be on Canada and the USA, other teams have a path to a gold medal, as well. And while the players on the other side of the ice will determine who wins and loses, the schedule might be just as big a hurdle for those trying to win gold. Here's a ranking of the toughest path to the podium.
12. France
- Group Opponents: Canada, Switzerland, Czechia
France is one of the teams fighting for its life at the Olympics this year. They have one NHL player on the roster (Alexandre Texier), and they have the most star-studded team on their schedule, with Team Canada in group play. The French are going to put up a fight, but if they lose games by fewer than five goals, we believe people will be impressed.
Beyond Canada (who they play in the final game of group play), both Switzerland and Czechia have rosters with decent stars across them. Nico Hischier, Roman Josi and J.J. Moser lead the Swiss, while Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Tomas Hertl set a good foundation for Czechia.
France is likely going to be in the qualification playoff, and they’ll have to play either Switzerland or Czechia in that game. It’s going to be really hard for France to even win a game, but if they do, that will be like winning a championship on its own.
11. Italy
- Group Opponents: Slovakia, Sweden, Finland
Italy looks like a pig going out to slaughter. They get a spot in the tournament as hosts, which knocked out teams like Slovenia and Norway. However, it’s a nice little story that the Italians are the only team with no NHL players on the roster. They get to see how they stack up against the best of the best.
And they get an interesting chance to showcase themselves right away. Italy’s first game is against Sweden, who many believe have a real chance to win a medal at these games. Then, they have to get through Slovakia and Finland before learning who they will face in the qualifying round.
Italy isn’t expected to do much, and scoring a goal in any of these games would be immensely fun for the home crowd, but the schedule and their roster make it near impossible to do anything of note in this tournament.
10. Latvia
- Group Opponents: Denmark, USA, Germany
Latvia and Denmark were both on the cusp of the IIHF standings entering the Olympic qualifiers, but both advanced to the gold medal tournament. Now, they find themselves in the same qualifying round. It’s probably going to come down to one or the other for who makes it into the quarterfinal round (but there’s also a chance that they both miss the next round).
Latvia gets the spot on this ranking because it starts off the tournament with Team USA. That’s not an ideal beginning for a team desperately trying to gain confidence. That could legitimately end with the Americans taking a double-digit win.
After that, Latvia faces Germany, another matchup where they seem overmatched. They have two devastating turns at the ice before finally taking on Denmark. That will be the matchup that impacts the rankings the most. Both teams are trying to make it to the big stage and avoid going home early. Getting a win is very important. Latvia will be coming off descending destruction.
9. Denmark
- Group Opponents: Latvia, USA, Germany
Then, going to Denmark, they flip the script on the schedule and get a chance to build a little confidence against Germany before taking on the powerhouse American team. While it might be a small thing, losing, say, 6-1 to start the tournament instead of 12-0 does matter, at least a little bit.
Honestly, it’s probably going to come down to the goalies for who can survive this schedule for these two teams. Latvia has Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs fighting for the net, and Denmark has Freddie Andersen. Both teams have a spattering of NHL players on the roster, but both have goalies who are starting in NHL games.
When it comes to the route to glory, starting off strong would be very impactful. Denmark has a very outside chance to beat Germany in a shocker, but beating the USA seems like an impossible task. We’re talking about margins here, and Denmark has a slim margin, which is still more than Latvia. One of the tiebreakers at the Olympics is head-to-head matchups, so it does help Denmark if they can beat Latvia.
8. Switzerland
- Group Opponents: Czechia, France, Canada
Switzerland is the first team on this list with at least an outside chance for gold. There is talent on this team, and they have medalled in different tournaments in the past. The Swiss have won back-to-back silver medals at the IIHF World Championships. Obviously, this is a much different tournament than the Olympics, but it was the closest to “best-on-best” that we got since the Olympics and the NHL temporarily ended its partnership. Last season, we got the 4 Nations tournament, but Switzerland was left on the outside looking in.
Now, they have a chance to prove they deserved a spot in that tournament. Most of their team consists of NHL players, and they have stars like Hischier, Josi, and others. However, the scheduling did not do them any favors.
Switzerland starts with France. An easy game! It gets them going, but then they have a warmed-up Canada team in game two, and then they have Czechia as they head into the playoff. Both those teams will likely be in similar spots, but Czechia has the advantage. If the Swiss come out of the qualifying round with just one win, they will likely be on the wrong side of the standings, and then have a worse matchup in the playoffs and might not even make it to the quarterfinals.
7. Slovakia
- Group Opponents: Finland, Sweden, Italy
Slovakia has an interesting situation. They don’t have a ton in terms of NHL talent, and their best players are really young. Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec were the number one and number two overall picks in the 2022 NHL Draft, but outside them, the rest of the roster is mediocre at best.
They didn’t get the worst schedule for themselves, avoiding both Canada and the US rosters on their way to the qualifying playoff. They get a free win, if they choose to accept it, from Italy. Can this team of young NHLers and overseas players shock one of Sweden and Finland?
Slovakia also probably avoids the worst-case result, which should help them with seeding going into the qualifying playoff round. This is a long shot, but a win over the top teams in the qualifying round might even earn them an automatic spot in the quarterfinals. Again, a long shot, but it’s not impossible like everyone else ahead of Slovakia.
6. Czechia
- Group Opponents: Canada, Switzerland, France
Canada is coming into the tournament with the highest odds and the most impressive roster. They are basically a guarantee to make it to the next round, but there’s a real chance they can make a mistake in the qualifying round. Their goaltending opens up an opportunity for those in the round robin, and Czechia is the best option to take a stab at the king of the mountain.
Czechia plays Canada on February 12th, one of the first games of the tournament. Nobody has had a chance to build chemistry, and Czechia has one of the best goal scorers in the world in Pastrnak.
It’s not all about Canada. They have a chance to get two wins against lesser competition in France and Switzerland. If this team can come out of this round with big wins against the Swiss and French, it helps to get a chance to build a goal differential, and Canada won’t have their full cylinders running to build a huge lead in that first game.
5. Sweden
- Group Opponents: Finland, Slovakia, Italy
We’re not going to pretend that Italy is anything more than a powderpuff in this tournament, and even they would admit that they are only there because of being the host country, but the reason this group’s top team is the lowest among the three groups is that there really isn’t one top team. There’s a major rivalry to figure out before we name a winner.
Sweden and Finland have been battling for European supremacy for a while now. The two Nordic countries have been creating great hockey players like an export at this point. While other countries are catching up, none are in their league, yet. Interestingly, Sweden and Finland play each other in the second game of the round robin.
The reason Sweden is behind Finland is that a. We think Finland is a little better, and b. Sweden plays Slovakia in the third game of the round robin, while Finland plays Italy. So, even if there’s a letdown for the Finns in the Sweden game, they have a soft landing. Sweden is better than Slovakia, but Slovakia can still beat Sweden on its worst day. However, if Sweden beats Finland and Slovakia, they have a chance to get the number-one seed in the quarterfinals.
4. Finland
- Group Opponents: Sweden, Slovakia, Italy
Let’s get into why that number-one seed is essential for Finland and Sweden. If they can get that seed, then they can likely avoid Canada and the USA until the gold medal game (if they make it there). They would push the highly-anticipated Canada-USA matchup to the semi-finals, which means that game would be to get to the gold medal game, not the game itself. Similar to the Miracle on Ice in 1980, the U.S.-Soviet Union matchup was not for a gold medal; the Americans actually had to beat the Swedes to win it all.
If the Finns or Swedes can make that happen, it very clearly gives them a major advantage in this tournament. However, it’s not an easy route to get there. The tie breaker eventually lands on goal differential, which Finland would need to destroy Italy by a ridiculous margin while also praying the Sweden and Slovakia matchups are more than a goal wins.
Finland has a route to make it straight to the quarterfinals, and if everything works out, Sweden does as well, but it’s more likely that the second-place team in this group misses out on an automatic bid to the quarterfinals. Which is why Finland’s round robin might have the most pressure on it than any country realistically shooting for a gold medal.
3. Germany
- Group Opponents: USA, Latvia, Denmark
While Finland and Sweden are probably better teams than Germany, that’s not what we’re looking at. We’re looking at the path to gold, and Germany has an interesting route. Do we think they have more of a chance to win than Finland and Sweden? Not necessarily, but the schedule is helping them out.
Leon Draisaitl’s team has one hard matchup in group play: the Americans. Then, they have to take care of matchups with Denmark and Latvia. Truthfully, if the Germans can avoid a blowout to the U.S. team, they have a legitimate chance to be the one team with a loss that gets a bye into the quarterfinals.
There, the path gets hard, but they essentially have a clear path to the semi-finals and a guarantee of a medal game. Most would say that the Germans coming out of the Olympics with a bronze medal would be a huge win. If they play well in the round robin and get that four seed, they are looking at a matchup with the five seed in the QFs. Would that one seed matchup be very hard? Yes, but they’d have to play them at some point. And the three seed is going to have just as hard a matchup in the semis, so it doesn’t really matter.
2. Canada
- Group Opponents: Czechia, Switzerland, France
The two best teams are going to have the easiest runs to a gold medal because they don’t have to play themselves. Canada and the U.S. have one team to beat when it comes to quality of roster. We put Canada second because of the quality of their round robin. Czechia and Switzerland both have star players on the roster and should put up a fight. It would be easy for Canada, but they are still head and shoulders above them in terms of talent.
Canada would like to play the eight seed in the quarterfinals and the four or five seed in the semi-finals. To do that, they need a one seed, which means they have to destroy two teams full of veterans. Ondrej Palat isn’t the guy he used to be, but his defense is still there and can prevent an embarrassment. The way this tournament works, Canada needs embarrassments in the round robin.
That really helps Canada’s path to gold. They avoid most of the favorites until the gold medal game, although they’ll probably get second place in Group B (Finland or Sweden). They are the favorite, and deservedly so, but they don’t have the easiest path to the top spot on the podium.
1. USA
- Group Opponents: Germany, Latvia, Denmark
The easiest path belongs to the Americans. They don’t have another team in the top seven of the IIHF world rankings in their division. While Germany has one of the easier routes to a medal round, it’s simply because of the luck of the draw. Meanwhile, the Americans should blow everyone out in the round robin on the way to an easy one seed.
Once they get that automatic bye to the quarterfinals, they should play a team like Slovakia in the knockout round. A win there would give the Americans the four or five seed in the semifinals, which is either the lesser of Sweden and Finland or Germany again (unless there’s a major surprise).
Then, just a matchup in the gold medal game stands between the red, white, and blue and the glory they haven’t felt since the Miracle on Ice year in 1980. This comes mere months after the Americans won the IIHF World Championships for the first time since 1960. With Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, the Tkachuk Brothers, and the Hughes Brothers looking to bring glory to the Americans, they have the perfect path to gold.