Michigan, Florida State riding last year's successes into preseason AP Top 25 ranking

With the preseason AP Top 25 Poll being released on Monday afternoon, we now have our guiding light as college football fans for the early part of the season. Until those fine folks meet in Greater Dallas for the first time in November, the Associated Press will do its best to say what teams are the best in the greatest sport on the planet. My question is if they are overvaluing a handful of teams.

Of the teams ranked inside of the top 10, two really stand out. That would be the Michigan Wolverines coming in at No. 9 and the Florida State Seminoles coming in a spot later at No. 10. While they won their conference championships a year ago, both feel like obvious regression candidates this season. Although Michigan's pullback is likely going to be larger than Florida State's, they might pull back, too.

Admittedly, I am infinitely higher on the Seminoles than I am on the Wolverines right now. While I still need to figure out how I am going to forecast what all goes on in ACC play this season, I do not have the Wolverines winning the Big Ten for the fourth year in a row. They could still find a way into the expanded College Football Playoff, but this feels more like an 8-4 team than it does a 10-2 squad.

As for Florida State, I know they are a top-four team in the ACC, but what differences does it make?

Michigan, Florida State riding off last year's successes in AP Poll ranking

Over the last two decades, we have seen a team ranked inside of the top 10 from the start fall out of the AP Top 25 entirely in 90 percent of those seasons. The math is not in favor of all 10 teams ranked inside of the top 10 this preseason to have staying power inside the top 25. Fate would have it, Florida State and Michigan were the two I debating to be this year's candidate. I settled on Michigan this year.

It was closer than I expected, but Michigan was such a gross outlier inside of the top 10 to begin with. The AP views them as the fourth best team in its expanded league behind Ohio State (No. 2), Oregon (No. 3) and Penn State (No. 9). While the gap between Michigan and Penn State may not be by as much as I think it is, I still have them two wins worse than the James Franklin Driving School of 10-2.

As for Florida State, I feel like they are definitely a top-four team in the ACC, probably even top-three, to be totally honest. While I like their chances of getting to Charlotte, I am not so sure they beat whoever they would meet there between likely Clemson, Miami or North Carolina State. I still may end up picking Florida State to win the ACC once I take a deep dive at the schedules, but I am not sold yet.

For now, it will be up to the Seminoles and the Wolverines to prove the AP right for ranking them high.