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Projected college football rankings if Alabama beats Georgia

The AP Top 25 could see a major shake up at the top if things go the Tide's way.

By Austen Bundy

Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jam Miller (26) runs to score a touchdown in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jam Miller (26) runs to score a touchdown in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images
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Saturday's heavyweight bout between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama will draw the attention of nearly every college football fan with a television, and you can expect there to be some major College Football Playoff implications. The top 5 matchup actually has a very tilted history—the Crimson Tide taking six of the past seven meetings. Despite being a home dog for the first time since 2007, Bama has a chance at really sewing some chaos early in the season.

Projected college football rankings if Georgia loses to Alabama


The winner of Saturday's grudge match from the 2023 SEC Championship Game could make a serious case to AP voters that they deserve the top spot in next week's poll, but it will all be contingent upon some other results. Here's how we think it will shake out.

1. Texas

It would take a shocking loss to lowly Mississippi State for the Longhorns to topple out of their top spot, especially if Georgia loses. Even if there's uncertainty with who Texas will start at quarterback, it doesn't look likely that either Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers will make enough mistakes to cost the game. Regardless of the result in Tuscaloosa, the Longhorns should retain their top spot and look to fight Georgia on Oct. 19 for the right to retain it.

2. Alabama

A victory of any fashion over Georgia should trigger a straight swap for Alabama. It won't matter what No. 3 Ohio State does against unranked Michigan State, the Crimson Tide will have a huge boost to their resume through five weeks to earn the spot above the Buckeyes. Now, Alabama can take solace in only reaching the No. 2 spot because it can lie in wait until Georgia and Texas face off in Austin on Oct. 19. Alabama may have to root for Georgia though: If Texas falls, Bama has a solid shot at taking the top spot by default.

3. Ohio State

Like I said, the Buckeyes are not going any further than their current position with a win over Sparty. Now, a loss on the other hand (while unlikely) would shake things up further. Georgia might not fall as far as No. 4 if that were to happen and it would make the Oct. 19 matchup against Texas all the more consequential.

4. Georgia

A straight swap with Alabama is the most likely scenario if the Bulldogs fall on Saturday. However, it's not out of the question to fall even further if it's a blowout loss. While unlikely, we've seen the AP voters punish potential frauds (see Michigan or Notre Dame's tumbles earlier this year). Nevertheless, a win over Texas in Week 7 would cause voters more headaches over who to choose at No. 1 again.

5. Tennessee

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Volunteers get some votes at No. 4 if Georgia loses to Alabama. Its impressive win over a then-Top 15 Oklahoma in Norman is certainly a resume booster and could plausibly give it more credibility ahead of Georgia. However, voters tend to give losers of top-ranked matchups the benefit of the doubt (especially when they're in the SEC). Tennessee will have its shot at Georgia in November, but by then the poll will probably look a lot different.

Projected rankings 6-25

The rest of the Top 25 will certainly shift as ranked teams lose (No. 15 Louisville and No. 16 Notre Dame will face off Saturday), but if everyone else in this week's poll wins, it's very likely the order stays pretty stable.

  1. Texas Longhorns
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes
  4. Georgia Bulldogs
  5. Tennessee Volunteers
  6. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) (1,269 points)
  7. Miami Hurricanes (4-0) (1,139 points)
  8. Oregon Ducks (4-0) (1,073 points)
  9. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) (1,051 points)
  10. Utah Utes (4-0) (1,037 points)
  11. Missouri Tigers (4-0) (1,009 points)
  12. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) (805 points)
  13. USC Trojans (2-1) (690 points)
  14. LSU Tigers (3-1) (637 points)
  15. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) (553 points)
  16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) (546 points)
  17. Clemson Tigers (2-1) (540 points)
  18. Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) (530 points)
  19. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) (458 points)
  20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) (388 points)
  21. Oklahoma Sooners (3-1) (375 points)
  22. BYU Cougars (4-0) (327 points)
  23. Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) (168 points)
  24. Texas A&M Aggies (3-1) (77 points)
  25. Boise State Broncos (2-1) (69 points)

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