Ranking the 3 worst reaches in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft was really something. We all expected surprises — it happens every year — but we saw some truly historic shocks Thursday evening.

For starters, five quarterbacks were selected in the top 10, a new NFL record. Bo Nix wasn't far behind as the No. 12 overall pick, tying the league record for most QBs in the first round. Dallas Turner fell to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 16, then Troy Fautanu fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 20.

When great prospects fall, that invariably means a few prospects were over-drafted. Every NFL front office has its own scouting department, its own management group, and its own guiding philosophies. Still, sometimes a mistake is obvious. Whether a team reaches on talent and ignores fit, or overlooks talent and reaches for fit, it's impossible for the league to collectively nail 32 of 32 picks. It has never happened.

Here are the worst reaches from the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, ranked.

3. Chop Robinson, No. 21 pick to Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins went for Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson with the No. 21 pick, a fairly significant shock. The most logical pick would have been an O-line or D-line upgrade, but the Dolphins are betting on Robinson's raw physical tools and unlimited upside. If he pans out, Robinson will make the Dolphins very happy. The odds of Robinson not panning out, however, are a little high for Miami.

With each passing season, the pressure mounts for Mike McDaniel to deliver a postseason winner. The Dolphins have a lot to figure out offensively when it counts, and Tua Tagovailoa's success is exceedingly dependent on timing and comfort in the pocket. Rather than selling out to protect Tua and maximize the Dolphins' present offense, however, Robinson will be brought along slowly as Miami's newest pass rusher.

At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, Robinson is an electric athlete capable of speeding around the tackles and applying pressure on the pocket. His college production was a tad underwhelming, however, as he only managed 15 tackles and four sacks as a junior. On the ESPN broadcast, Nick Saban succinctly summed up what it will take for Robinson to succeed at the next level: "He needs to turn speed into power."

Robinson has all the athletic gifts, but he needs to improve his fundamentals, play more physically, and translate his limitless tools into a consistent impact on winning. The Dolphins are in win-now mode, but Robinson will require a patient approach, and he doesn't address their foremost need on either side of the football. It's a reasonable pick, but certainly a reach.

2. Bo Nix, No. 12 pick to Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos needed a quarterback, but Bo Nix? At No. 12? That is a huge reach, one that reeks of imminent failure.

Sean Payton has never picked a QB in the first round before. ESPN's Adam Schefter posted a nice little story on X (Twitter) about Payton really wanting Patrick Mahomes in New Orleans, but coming up one pick short of changing the trajectory of Saints football. That's a nice anecdote, maybe it's even true, but the final sentiment from Schefter's report is truly absurd — "Payton feels as strongly about Bo Nix as he did Mahomes."

Nix was awesome in his fifth and final college season at Oregon. He completed 77.4 percent of his passes and threw 45 touchdowns, compared to only three interceptions. That said, Nix will start his rookie season at 24 years old. He's a smart game manager, with quick processing speed and a winning mentality, but he lacks the arm strength of a future NFL star. Nix relied a lot on dinky passes and the ingenuity of the Ducks' offense in the Pac-12, which is notorious for its bad defense.

The efficiency and football I.Q. are undeniable, but Nix lacks the capacity for explosive down-field plays that you generally want from a top-12 QB pick. There will be a ceiling on his NFL production. He should be able to start in the right setting, but Denver's shaky WR room and general lack of stability on offense won't help. Nix was in the perfect situation at Oregon. In Denver, more will be asked of him.

Denver was won over by Nix in the pre-draft process. He nailed his interview, looked great on an empty practice field, and aced all his homework. This was always going to happen, frankly. Nix is a smart, likable dude, but the actual talent pales in comparison to others picked in his range. He was the sixth-best QB picked in a draft where QB reaches were historically frequent. The Broncos should have waited.

1. Michael Penix Jr., No. 8 pick to Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons made the most inexplicable and shocking pick of the night, hands down. The Bo Nix pick was bad, but the Michael Penix Jr. pick was straight-up baffling. There's a strong case for Penix as QB4 in the draft — the majority of his concerns are non-football issues, such as injuries — but an older quarterback with four season-ending injuries on his ledger carries a lot of risk in the top 10.

That is especially true for a team that just does not need a QB. The Falcons paid Kirk Cousins $180 million a few months ago. Did Terry Fontenot forget? Penix will ostensibly serve as Cousins' successor, but he's going to be 26 by the time Cousins' contract comes off the books. And that's assuming the Falcons jump ship before the two non-guaranteed years hit. That is half of Penix's rookie contract that will be spent on the pine, not helping the team contend for a championship.

Atlanta didn't even tell Cousins ahead of time, which shows how much faith and trust the Falcons have in their new signal-caller. Cousins will handle it with professionalism, but we have seen star QBs upset by teams picking their replacements before. The Falcons didn't even wait for Cousins to actually put on the uniform and test his surgically repaired knee.

This is an extreme display of faith from the Falcons' front office. Faith that Penix is ahead of the curve at 23 — so good that the talent gap between him and No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy is large enough to offset the two-year age gap. The Falcons could have improved a defense in need or supplied Cousins with another weapon. Instead, Penix is going to learn at the altar of Cousins and operate in the shadows for at least a couple years. At best, the No. 8 pick will serve as an above-average backup in case of emergency. That is poor asset management.