Reckless NBA Draft prospect comparison could set Donovan Clingan up for failure

Player comparisons are an inescapable part of pre-NBA Draft coverage. They're a useful shorthand for quickly communicating a lot of information about a player but they fall apart when they delve into hyperbole (The Next Michael Jordan), lean into meaningless attributes (not every 6-foot-8 white player with a jumpshot is Larry Bird) or focus on some aspects of a player's skills or physical attributes to the exclusion of something absolutely essential.

Case in point — Donovan Clingan is not Brook Lopez 2.0.

That comparison came from The Athletic's David Aldridge in a recent piece arguing that the Washington Wizards should seriously consider taking him with the No. 2 pick: "He’s Brook Lopez 2.0, and last time I checked, Lopez just finished his 16th NBA season."

Aldridge then went on to do my job for me and explain exactly why this comparison is so unhelpful:

"Here’s what Clingan is not: a modern big man who can step out and shoot 3s and stretch defenses, at least not now. He shot nine 3s total in his two seasons at UConn. Here’s what Clingan is: 7-foot-2, 280 pounds, a grown-ass 20-year-old."

Aldridge's comparison is based on size and, although he doesn't hit on it in the paragraph above, defensive role and upside. He is absolutely right that Clingan has a similar physical presence and multiple scouting reports have highlighted his potential to have an enormous defensive impact, primarily in the kind of drop coverage scheme in which Lopez has thrived over the past few years. Here's what our own draft expert Chris Kline had to say about Clingan:

"Clingan isn't going to switch screens and guard the perimeter, but he's fluid in space relative to your standard 7-foot-2 bruiser. More often than not, the 20-year-old can step up and nimbly guard pick-and-roll actions. He has all the tools of an elite drop coverage rim protector."

"Clingan will block shots (2.4 per game) and inhale rebounds. He's a smart and sound defender, avoiding silly fouls and expertly deploying his strength in the post. Clingan doesn't need to leap haphazardly for blocks; he's tall enough to stand vertically and maintain legal guarding position. His defensive wins are based on timing and positioning, not athletic flourishes."

That all sounds a lot like Lopez. The difference, as Aldridge acknowledged is that Clingan only attempted nine 3-pointers in two seasons at Connecticut. Over the past six seasons as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, Lopez has hit 35.4 percent from beyond the arc and nearly half his shots have come from beyond the arc.

Who is the right NBA Draft prospect comparison for Donovan Clingan?

Lopez is an entirely different player on offense, a screener, yes but also a floor-spacer who spends much of his time beyond the arc. Offensive possessions for Clingan and Lopez might start in similar places — screening around the elbows — but almost all of Clingan's time is going to be spent moving from there toward the basket. That means a very different offensive role, a very different impact on spacing and a very different context for building offensive lineups. Lopez's defensive impact is increased because he can share the floor with someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo and he can only share the floor with Giannis because he's comfortable beyond the arc.

This is not to say Clingan's ceiling is marginally worse, only that his role is likely to be different enough that comparing him to Lopez isn't really that helpful in understanding how he'll fit on an NBA team. Given his combination of size and skill, comparisons like Jusuf Nurkic, Isaiah Hartensten, Ivica Zubac, and Walker Kessler are probably more useful. Again, that doesn't mean Clingan couldn't turn out to be much better than those players. But he's likely to play more similarly to them in terms of role than he is to Lopez.

As far as where Clingan should fall in the draft, a recent roundup of four NBA Mock Drafts had one with the Wizards selecting him at No. 2 and two more with him falling to the Rockets at No. 3. The lowest outcome in the roundup was from our own Chris Kline, with Clingan falling to the Memphis Grizzlies at No. 9.