Projected US Open cut line 2024: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut at Pinehurst? [Updated]

Golf fans who watch the PGA Tour regularly are quite accustomed to seeing the 36-hole cut made pretty well under par or, at the very least, a couple under par. It's just the norm when it comes to a regular tour event. But when it comes to the US Open cut, things are normally built quite a bit different, especially at a place like Pinehurst No. 2.

Even with some Martin Kaymer-esque 65s being shot in the first round of the 2024 US Open, the course played extremely difficult under USGA conditions as only 15 players were under par after the first round. And as we went into Friday for the second round, there were good scores to be had but the conditions remained equally as difficult with even the vaunted Scottie Scheffler in flirting potentially with the US Open cut line.

But what is the cut line going to be? We obviously never know when it comes to a course this hard in conditions this testing, but let's take a look at the projections and predictions to see where the US Open cut line will end up this year, in addition to other players in danger of missing the cut.

Projected US Open cut for Pinehurst: What will the number be?

The most likely US Open cut line is at +5 for this week at Pinehurst. According to the latest Data Golf projections, there is a 94.6% chance that the cut line will end up at +5 for the week. As of the latest update, the projections clearly expected the difficult Pinehurst conditions to cause more of the field to fall back. And sure enough, players have.

More to that point, the next most likely cut line according to the projections is +4 (6.4% chance), meaning the expectation should be for players to ultimately keep falling back and more being well over par for the week at the US Open.

US Open cut sweats: Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods and notables who could miss the cut

Speaking of players who are over par and in danger, the most notable of these is Scottie Scheffler. After looking quite poor on Thursday and continuing that -- or getting even worse in some cases -- on Friday, Scheffler is at +5 for the tournament, which could narrowly put him by

Joining Scheffler in danger of missing the cut are more big names like Tiger Woods (+4) and Dustin Johnson (+6) who will need mistake-free rounds in order to play the weekend with those being just Round 1 scores. Meanwhile, Will Zalatoris (+6) will need a big round to see the weekend. Tommy Fleetwood is also at +5 after his second round and could need that cut to move there.

Players almost surely not making the cut are Max Homa (+6), Viktor Hovland (+6), Justin Thomas (+7), Sahith Theegala (+7), Jason Day (+8) and Phil Mickelson (+9).