Cooper Flagg has made history at Duke. He ranks among the most productive and impactful freshmen in college basketball history, with the sort of well-rounded skill set that gets NBA scouts out of bed in the morning.
There is practically zero chance Flagg is not the No. 1 overall pick in June without an act of God or something close to it. At 6-foot-9, he's shouldering the second-highest usage rate among high-major freshmen, trailing only fellow projected lottery pick Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma's heliocentric point guard.
Flagg is the primary engine behind Duke's scorching-hot offense. There were some growing pains early in the season, but Flagg left those in the dust a long time ago. He's scoring efficiently at all three levels, making advanced live-dribble passes, and defending with a real edge.
More than his raw talent, Flagg plays hard. Much harder than your typical projected No. 1 pick with outlier physical attributes. He doesn't play like an 18-year-old who has been on a pedestal for years. He's bigger, stronger, and faster than most of his college competition, and he almost always wins the effort battle. Factor in an impressive basketball I.Q. at such a young age, and it's hard to poke holes in Flagg's NBA candidacy.
That said, we've seen obvious No. 1 picks not go No. 1 before. Think back to Luka Doncic, who fell all the way to No. 3 in one of the most logic-defying shockers in recent NBA Draft history. That was a slightly different situation, though. Doncic was a "below-average" athlete playing overseas, put up against two classically athletic American 7-footers in Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley. Flagg is on college basketball's biggest stage at Duke and he's thriving, almost always on national television. It's hard to imagine scouts overthinking this one.
If it does happen, though, it'd probably look something like this.
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Projected 2025 NBA Draft Lottery if Cooper Flagg somehow falls from No. 1 spot
Order | Name | Team | Pos., School |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dylan Harper | Washington Wizards | G, Rutgers |
2 | Cooper Flagg | New Orleans Pelicans | F, Duke |
3 | Ace Bailey | Utah Jazz | F, Rutgers |
4 | VJ Edgecombe | Charlotte Hornets | G, Baylor |
5 | Khaman Maluach | Toronto Raptors | C, Duke |
6 | Kasparas Jakucionis | Philadelphia 76ers | G, Illinois |
7 | Jeremiah Fears | Brooklyn Nets | G, Oklahoma |
8 | Derik Queen | Chicago Bulls | C, Maryland |
9 | Collin Murray-Boyles | Portland Trail Blazers | F, South Carolina |
10 | Jase Richardson | San Antonio Spurs | G, Michigan State |
11 | Kon Knueppel | San Antonio Spurs (via ATL) | F, Duke |
12 | Nolan Traore | Houston Rockets (via PHX) | G, France |
13 | Tre Johnson | Atlanta Hawks (via SAC) | G, Texas |
14 | Ben Saraf | Miami Heat (via GSW) | G, Israel |
There has been much debate over the Rutgers freshmen, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who both have strong cases to be the No. 2 overall prospect in this draft. Before the season, many viewed Bailey as a legitimate threat to Flagg's crown. That has subsided amid Flagg's dominant run at Duke, but there's natural appeal in a 6-foot-10 wing with Bailey's shot-making chops. Harper, meanwhile, is the sort of big, versatile playmaker every front office covets.
Right now, Harper feels like the better bet to supersede Flagg in an apocalyptic alternate future. He's 6-foot-6, 215 pounds with a thoroughly dynamic skill set. Harper creates advantages with his handle, puts constant pressure on the rim, and produces prolifically out of pick-and-rolls. He's tailored to stardom in today's NBA.
The argument here — and again, it's not a great argument — would be that Washington prefers a more traditional playmaking fulcrum to build around. The Wizards have a couple long, versatile defensive forwards with hints of on-ball functionality in Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, and Kyshawn George. They'd benefit from a point guard who can set the table, collapse the defense, and elevate those around him.
Washington should just pick Flagg, keep developing Bub Carrington, and look for franchise point guards elsewhere (Flagg is averaging 4.0 assists and 3.0 turnovers, compared to 4.2 assists and 2.4 turnovers from Harper). There's a good chance Flagg is more or less a primary creator at his peak. At the very least, he has the chance to become a legitimate go-to weapon for the Wiz, so opting for Harper would be greatly misguided. It's certainly not impossible, though. Harper is a No. 1-caliber prospect most years, and his skill set does feel specially molded for an NBA team in need of a star primary guard to tie everything together.
Any front office holding Flagg and Bailey up against one another and picking Bailey should be federally investigated. Washington would probably live to regret passing on Flagg, but at least there's a realistic outcome with Harper that challenges (or maybe even exceeds) Flagg's ceiling. We can never know the exact shape and scope of a rookie class this early. Harper's skill set is extremely valuable, so if anyone makes a scouting department think twice about Flagg, it'll be the Rutgers point guard.