The Houston Rockets are in a unique position.
With one of the youngest rosters in the NBA, Houston as climbed the ladder to the No. 2 seed in a loaded Western Conference, despite the absence of a true load-bearing superstar. Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson and sometimes Jalen Green are all wonderful players, but none we'd typically laud as the best player on a 52-win team with title aspirations.
Houston's youth and lack of star talent will probably spell their doom in the playoffs — a much older Golden State team is already up 3-1 — but the Rockets are on a fittingly skyward trajectory. No team, aside from OKC, has more depth, draft capital and flexibility with which to mold their future.
Better yet, the Rockets currently own the Phoenix Suns' first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, which boasts the ninth-best odds to win the lottery. Last season, Atlanta received the No. 1 overall pick with the 10th-best odds. While Cooper Flagg landing in Houston seems improbable, our latest lottery sim and NBA mock draft was a reminder of how wacky those pingpong balls can get.
If Houston does receive the No. 1 overall pick, and by extension the rights to select 18-year-old Duke phenom Cooper Flagg, one can't help but wonder if that simply sets the stage for a blockbuster trade with the Milwaukee Bucks.
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Rockets could turn No. 1 overall pick into Giannis Antetokounmp with NBA Draft Lottery luck
Houston needs a star. Does Flagg qualify as that star? Absolutely. Adding Flagg to the No. 2 seed in the West is borderline unfair. He would immediately improve Houston's outlook on both ends and add a much-needed dynamic to the half-court offense, bringing three-level scoring, mismatch creation and a sharp passing IQ.
But what about Giannis, a top-3 player in the world and a two-time MVP with a ring under his belt? There would naturally be debate over whether or not the Rockets should part with an 18-year-old Flagg (and salary filler) to acquire a 30-year-old Antetokounmpo, but here's the truth: For as much as we all expect greatness from Flagg, he is an unproven commodity who will need a few years of development before he's leading the charge for an NBA Finals team (probably). Giannis is one of the very best players in league history and a day-one ceiling extender for a team in desperate need of veteran guidance.
The Rockets have the picks and prospects to mount a compelling trade package for Giannis without the No. 1 pick, but winning the Flagg sweepstakes changes the equation dramatically. We'd all love to see Giannis and Flagg in Houston if it's possible, but in reality, the Bucks are going to ask for Flagg — and Houston should probably acquiesce.
While parting with Flagg would sting, it should allow Houston to keep a lot more assets than it would otherwise. Instead of trading five-plus picks and several key players, perhaps the Rockets can get away with a more bare-bones trade centered around the generationally talented 18-year-old who can plug straight into Giannis' position on the Bucks roster. That gives Houston more flexibility to maintain an adequate supporting cast around Antetokounmpo, something Milwaukee has struggled to do in recent years.
The Bucks and Antetokounmpo haven't officially pulled the plug on their marriage yet, but after a dispiriting five-game loss to the Indiana Pacers in the first round, we can all see the writing on the wall. The Bucks' roster is sucked dry of youth and depth and the front office has zero assets to work with. Trading Giannis to build a more sustainable future, especially if it means opening an eight-year window with Cooper Flagg, could be the right move for all parties involved.