Every player in The Masters field stepped onto the first tee at Augusta National on Thursday with hopes of putting on the Green Jacket come Sunday. The first step to doing that is making sure that you see the weekend and make the cut, whatever the cut line may be.
Justin Rose, Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Åberg and the leaders aren't worried about missing the cut at The Masters but there are several big names like Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Russell Henley and many others who came into Friday with just 18 holes to play to avoid not seeing the weekend and missing the cut.
Based on the scoring that we've seen, though, the cut line at The Masters has been moving all over the place. But using everything we have, including the impending weather forecasts, we're taking a swing at predicting The Masters cut line and what it will take to see the weekend.
What are the cut rules at The Masters?
Because it has the smallest field among major championships, The Masters cut rules are different in that it is the Top 50 players and ties who make it to play the weekend. With a field that rarely gets over 100 players (if ever at this point), that makes sense in comparison to the rules for other majors.
In contrast, the field sizes for the PGA Championship, U.S. Open and The Open are typically 156 players. As such, the cut rules at those three tournaments are either the Top 70 and ties of the Top 65 and ties that make it to the weekend.
The Masters did use to potentially expand the cut even further with a rule that anyone within 10 shots of the lead would play the weekend. That rule has since been eliminated.
The Masters cut line history for the last 15 years
Year | Cut Line |
|---|---|
2024 Masters | +6 |
2023 Masters | +3 |
2022 Masters | +4 |
2021 Masters | +3 |
2020 Masters (November) | E |
2019 Masters | +3 |
2018 Masters | +5 |
2017 Masters | +6 |
2016 Masters | +6 |
2015 Masters | +2 |
2014 Masters | +4 |
2013 Masters | +4 |
2012 Masters | +5 |
2011 Masters | +1 |
2010 Masters | +3 |
When you look back at The Masters cut line over recent history, it's absolutely wild that the November Masters in 2020, the 2015 tournament and the 2011 tournament are the only three iterations in the last 15 years when the cut has been better than +3. For the other 12 years at The Masters, the cut line has been between +3 and +6, which is certainly something to note.
It's definitely worth considering that it could be a little windy for the first two rounds at Augusta this week, which could raise scores. At the same time, the cut line was just +6 last year when there was a weather delay and some bad wind as well.
The Masters cut line prediction for the 2025 tournament
The projected Masters cut line is +2 as we get into the afternoon of the second round at Augusta National.
Coming into the tournament, we predicted that the cut line would end up at +6. That immediately seemed to go by the wayside once play started, however, as players were scoring quite well. Even with the challenges of Augusta National, there were enough birdies available to keep scores low and seem like the Top 50 and ties might be much, much lower than +6 for the weekend.
That's been backed up. Even with wind and weather expected to play a factor for the later tee times on Friday — gusts nearing 30 mph in the late afternoon — the current Data Golf models project that there is a 95.3% chance that the cut line will be 2-over (146) to play the weekend. That means they are saying with near-certainty that the cut line will be there as the next closest number is +3 but with only a 2.8% chance.
Maybe the winds will still end up playing a factor, but that now looks like much less of a certainty as the cut line could be at a much lower +2 when it's all said and done.