The MVP vote might actually be tight if voters think like Bill Simmons

The NBA MVP race has taken on a familiar shape, with Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić up against the plucky underdog. It has been Joel Embiid is years past. Last season, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished in second, logging 15 first-place votes to Jokić's 79. Luka Dočić (four) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (one) brought up the rear.

This season, it is once against Jokić vs. Gilgeous-Alexander, with the latter appearing to emerge as the frontrunner. Jokić has won three of the last four MVP trophies, and deservedly so, but Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC to 68 wins behind a historic scoring season in line with all-time greats like Michael Jordan. This might be the tighest race Jokić has been part of since Embiid's fluke win in 2023.

As of March 31, Gilgeous-Alexander was -4000 to win MVP, with Jokić a distant second at +1200 according to ESPN. That said, the awards discourse is constantly shifting in today's social media world, and narratives can turn on a dime.

Ask Ryen Russillo and Bill Simmons of The Ringer, and this is a tight race — and SGA is far from the obvious winner. In fact, Russillo says he is "not having a hard time" voting for Denver's 7-footer. That is at least one confirmed vote for the Sombor Shuffler, with Simmons appearing to lean in that direction as well.

"If you gave Jokić SGA's 2-12, I’m pretty sure he’d win 65-70 games," Simmons said.

Subscribe to The Whiteboard, FanSided’s daily email newsletter on everything basketball. If you like The Whiteboard, share it with a friend! If you don’t like The Whiteboard, share it with an enemy!

Bill Simmons, Ryen Russillo put Nikola Jokić over Shai Gilgeous-Alexader in NBA MVP race

Look, this race is undeniably close on paper. Whether the vote ends up close is another matter entirely. So often, the MVP race depends as much, if not more on narrative than on actual merit. One can't help but think back to Russell Westbrook winning during his first triple-double season with OKC. That was all about resiliency in the face of KD's departure. He was not "better" than James Harden.

Jokić is the best player in the world, point blank. There are natural ebbs and flows season to season, but nobody has done enough to snatch the crown from Denver's 30-year-old. In fact, if we want to use Russ' arbitrary triple-double metric, Jokić averaged 29.6 points (a career high), 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists (a career high). His efficiency did not waver, and he often dominated with less help from teammates.

On the surface, this is the best individual season of Jokić's historic career. He's verging on top 10 all-time territory, and we have never seen him operate at quite this level offensively. Denver's team success has waned compared to years past, and Jokić has been uncharacteristically lax on defense, but he is carrying a mountainous burden on offense.

SGA, meanwhile, is averaging 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 98th-percentile efficiency in the mid-range, channeling the legendary guards of yore. He is also contributing at a high level to one of the greatest defensive units in NBA history, mounting a strong first-team All-Defense case (and maybe even a fringe DPOY resume).

Gilgeous-Alexander does a lot on both ends for the seventh team ever to win 68 games. OKC's point differential this season (12.9) eclipses all other dynasties before them. No team has so thoroughly dominated teams in the regular season.

A true race for MVP

This is a true coin flip. There is a strong "Jokić best player, SGA best season" case, which feels like it will prevail in the end. But, Jokić has offset voter fatigue better than most superstars over the years, primarily because he's a) better than most of 'em and b) he doesn't command the spotlight the same way. He's a low-maintenance personality who just hoops and goes home to his horses. It feels like voters respect that about him.

You cannot paint either as the "wrong" pick here, which means we will inevitably get a harsh and nonsensical discourse cycle when one eventually claims his trophy. OKC and Denver fans are not chill by nature, and both these players engender strong responses in supporters and skeptics alike. So, buckle in, because you're about to hear a lot of yelling in the social media void.