Sometimes, predicting the NFL Draft is surprisingly simple.
Arguably no one needed tight end help more badly this offseason than the Indianapolis Colts; with Jonathan Taylor locked in and Josh Downs emerging to complement Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce on the outside, upgrading on the replacement-level the duo of Kylen Granson and Mo-Alie Cox felt like the final piece of Indy's offensive puzzle. The best-case scenario for the team's first round felt like former Penn State star Tyler Warren, fresh off winning the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end.
Sure enough, Warren was there when the Colts picked at No. 14 overall on Thursday. And sure enough, Indy couldn't hand in the card fast enough.
There are plenty of reasons for the team and its fans to be excited about how the first round shook out. Warren is as accomplished a player as you'll find at a position of clear need, with impressive versatility that seems like a perfect fit for Shane Steichen's scheme. Plus, the Chris Ballard didn't even need to move up to land him. That's a nice little piece of business.
But of course, these are the 2025 Colts we're talking about; nothing can ever actually be that simple. Every move, big or small, is colored by the former top-five elephant in the room: quarterback Anthony Richardson. And much like the rest of this offense — heck, this franchise as a whole — the impact Warren can have in Indianapolis hinges on Richardson's growth.
Tyler Warren's game might not fit with Anthony Richardson's skill set
The Colts will undoubtedly use Warren in lots of different ways; he played everywhere from in-line to out wide to running back to wildcat QB during his time in college. But for all the bells and whistles he brings, his bread is still buttered over the middle of the field, where he can use his unique combination of size, strength and ball skills to be a reliable chain-mover.
That is, if his quarterback can get him the ball. It just so happens that where Warren will thrive the most is where Richardson has struggled the most over the course of his NFL career to date. AR15's accuracy problems are well-documented at this point; his completion percentage dipped all the way to 47.7% in 2024. And things were neraly as bad in the intermediate middle area of the field, with a 53.1% mark on throws between 10-19 yards down the field.
Richardson is still young, and he still doesn't have a ton of experience under his belt. There's time for he and Steichen to flip the script here. And having a safety blanket like Warren around should, theoretically, help that process along. But the reverse could also be true: If Richardson's light simply never comes on, then he could greatly limit the impact Warren is able to have on Indy's offense. Even a part-time wildcat QB can't throw the ball to himself, and Richardson will need to make major strides for this pick to bear fruit.