Golf fans should be at a fever pitch for the 2025 U.S. Open at this point. Oakmont Country Club is the most common course that we've seen in the 125+ year history of the USGA's flagship tournament and that's because it might just be the best. With it's insane rough, ridiculously fast greens, tricky slopes, diabolical bunkers and even the weather all playing a factor, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will even be put to the test as he enters the U.S. Open as the heavy, heavy favorite.
This could be a demanding test for the ages. After all, when Dustin Johnson won the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont in 2016, he was one of just four players to finish under par while only six players were at even-par or better. In 2007 en route to Angel Cabrera's victory, the champion posted a winning score of 5-over par. If you think of the U.S. Open as a test of survival, Oakmont is the purest form of that.
So where does that leave us with our picks? Let's dive into our 2025 U.S. Open predictions with prop bets, Top 10 and Top 20 selections, and much more for the week at Oakmont as we try to cash in big for a major championship.
Golf betting record in 2025: 17-80-0, +18.835 Units (-2 Units at Charles Schwab, -4 Units at Memorial, No Picks at Canadian Open) | One and Done Total for 2025: $12,408,649 (Si Woo Kim at Schwab, $60,978; Viktor Hovland at Memorial, $159,000; Keith Mitchell at RBC Canadian, $64,353)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
2025 U.S. Open picks: Outrights, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and One and Done selections
I've already detailed my outright picks this week for the U.S. Open for SI Golf, and you can check out the full breakdown there. These are what we're going with, though, with our unit allotment and the markets we're playing them in.
- Scottie Scheffler +280, 3 Units (FanDuel)
- Jon Rahm winner w/o Scheffler, +900, 1.5 Units
- Corey Conners winner w/o Scheffler, +4000, 0.5 Units
Now, let's get into more of the placement and prop bets for the week.
Top 5 pick for the 2025 U.S. Open: Tommy Fleetwood (+650)
There is absolutely no reason to think that Tommy Fleetwood can win on United States soil (or the PGA Tour, by proxy) at this point. However, he continues to play terrific golf and be a greatly suited player for the test at Oakmont. His ball-striking has been seventh in the field over the last 36 rounds on courses where it's difficult to gain strokes off the tee, bolstered heavily by his approach play, while also being long enough off the tee but highly accurate with the driver. He also has performed well on speedy greens. With all of this and his penchant for showing up at these types of U.S. Open setups, I like the Englishman to be near the top of the leaderboard, even if it's a backdoor Top 5.
Top 10 pick for the 2025 U.S. Open: Corey Conners (+400)
While I'm still on the Conners outright, I love getting 4-1 on a Top 10 play even more this week at Oakmont. The Canadian is perfectly suited to withstand the haymakers that this course figures to throw. He's an accurate driver off the tee, shows stellar form with his long irons, putts well on fast greens, and has historically simply played his best golf on extremely difficult golf courses. That all factors into the mix here and I believe he's due to make some real noise.
Top 20 pick for the 2025 U.S. Open: Viktor Hovland (+180)
I simply can't quit Viktor Hovland because the signs are there. For one, I think the think, long rough around the greens could help mitigate a lot of his issues around the green, largely because it will be unpredictable for just about everyone. On top of that Hovland has played well on difficult courses, particularly ones with a hefty penalty for hitting the rough, and has sneakily been solid at avoiding bogeys. I do fear the inconsistency he's shown, which is why we're not going more aggressive than a Top 20, but I do think it's a nice week overall for the Norwegian.
One and Done pick for the 2025 U.S. Open: Jon Rahm
Having already used Scheffler for One and Done, we're going to the LIV Golf side of things at another major to take advantage of that. I love Jon Rahm this week, who has finished T14 and T8 at the two majors this year and hasn't finished worse than T12 in his last five starts at the U.S. Open. With his length, ball-striking prowess and magician-like short game, I think he's going to have a big say this week in the tournament and could win outright, so I love the One and Done play here.
U.S. Open picks and more best bets for Oakmont
Harris English, Keegan Bradley and Tommy Fleetwood to all finish Top 40 (+259, DraftKings)
Fleetwood we've already discussed, but Harris English has been a maven at making U.S. Open cuts with six in a row and, more importantly, has proven his propensity for handling the test at difficult venues. His iron play can be a question, which is why I'm not getting too crazy, but his short game and accurate driver should play well. With Bradley, it's all about the ball-striking. He's been sneakily one of the best on the PGA Tour this season throughout the bag and, while I don't love his putting on these greens, he has enough momentum right now to squeak out a Top 40.
Lucas Glover, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (+531, DraftKings)
On the flip side of the coin, I have zero faith in this trio. Even though DJ won at Oakmont in 2016, he's a shell of the player he was at that time. The same too could be said of Cameron Smith, who's erratic driver has been a death knell since his win at St. Andrew's and move to LIV when it comes to majors. That could be said tenfold this week with the rough at Oakmont. As for Lucas Glover, I just don't trust his lack of length or his short game at all this week. It's a terrible fit, and overall this is some tasty action for a miss-the-cut parlay.
Viktor Hovland to win Group C (Straka, Cantlay, Thomas, Matsuyama) (+450, FanDuel)
Back to Hovland, not only do I believe in him, but I'm not a huge fan of anyone in this group. Straka has tailed off since a hot start to the year a bit, and a U.S. Open might be a bit above his paygrade. Both Cantlay and Thomas seem primed to absolutely fold under the test of Oakmont, particularly if they get a little loose with the driver. Matsuyama is the one who worries me. The form hasn't quite been there of late but, at the same time, he can show up any week and shine. I'll bank on that not happening, though, especially with Hovland having the longest odds to win this group.