Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as expected, elected to reject every Toronto Blue Jays extension offer that they sent his way ahead of his self-imposed deadline. Now, barring something unforeseen, he will enter free agency after the 2025 campaign and make a whole lot of money on the open market.
It isn't hard to see why Guerrero made this decision. He saw the money Juan Soto earned on the open market in the 2024 offseason, and while he won't receive that much money, he has no reason not to entertain a bidding war between several big market clubs. In addition to making more money than he might have with only the Jays bidding, he might end up having the opportunity to join a team better suited to win now and in the future than Toronto is.
While Guerrero testing free agency makes a lot of sense from his perspective, this decision does not come without risk. It's unclear what Toronto's offers were, and Guerrero believes they weren't even close to his asking price, but he almost certainly turned down substantial money from the Jays. That decision could be one he ends up regretting.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is taking a huge risk by testing free agency
With Guerrero likely headed to free agency, there's reason to believe a team like the New York Mets would go all-out to sign him. Pete Alonso will likely enter free agency after the year, Steve Cohen has seemingly unlimited money, and the Mets just signed Juan Soto - why should they be doubted? Well, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com isn't as sure.
"I don’t know if I’d call them the favorites, only because Cohen and -- especially -- president of baseball operations David Stearns prefer shorter contracts. Although those two have spent liberally since they’ve been together, they’ve only doled out one deal of more than three years, and that was for a generational talent in Juan Soto. Cohen and Stearns don’t want to make it a habit."
The Mets have proven to be willing to spend absurd amounts of money for young, generational talents. They signed Soto, and offered Yoshinobu Yamamoto the exact same record-breaking deal he wound up signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. If they believe Guerrero is a generational talent, they might go all-out, but the Mets do not want to continue spending absurd amounts of money. They're far from a guarantee to blow Guerrero away.
Another team likely to be heavily linked to Guerrero is the New York Yankees. Their fit makes sense, with a substantial amount of money set to come off the books after the 2025 campaign and their hole at first base, but how likely is it that they'll want to spend generational money on Guerrero? According to the team's MLB.com beat writer Bryan Hoch, it might not be very likely.
"I’ve got to say: after attempting to go toe-to-toe with Cohen’s Mets for Soto, I don’t sense the Yankees would be all that enthusiastic about engaging in another bidding war."
The Yankees might end up signing Guerrero at their price, but Hoch believes they might not be comfortable going above their comfort zone in a huge bidding war for Guerrero.
There's always a team like the Boston Red Sox, a team Guerrero has been heavily linked to, but they don't need to go all-out for him. The Red Sox already have a very potent offensive core, and they've got Triston Casas, a first baseman with star potential, already on their roster. They might be willing to go all-out for Guerrero, but they have no reason to be desperate.
Well, if those three big market teams won't go nuts for Guerrero, which team will? If Guerrero does not have a desperate big market suitor, his decision to reject Toronto's extension offer might end up backfiring.