The Toronto Blue Jays were unable to line up an extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of spring training, which means the All-Star first baseman is set to enter free agency next winter.
That puts Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays in a bind. Obviously, they'd prefer to keep Guerrero, but if the price was too high this offseason, it won't get much better in an open bidding war. Assuming his production doesn't fall off, Guerrero should receive bountiful offers from all your standard big spenders. The Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox all have potential needs at first base. Guerrero finished last season, at age 25, with a .940 OPS and 30 home runs. He was MVP runner-up at 22 when he finished with a 1.002 OPS and 48 home runs.
It's traditionally unwise to invest heavily in first basemen who don't contribute much on defense, but Guerrero ranks among the very best hitters in MLB. He takes a page out of his father's book, working the entire plate and possessing remarkable power, even on pitches outside the sweet spot of the zone. He also has experience at third base. A team looking to squeeze maximum value out of Guerrero could tinker with a position change.
With a reunion next offseason feeling less likely by the day, Toronto needs to consider trading Guerrero now, while there's still significant value to recoup. Several front office would ponder a run at Guerrero, but one hypothetical trade partner, in particular, would be especially helpful to Toronto — if ill-fated on the other end.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.
Mariners need Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s bat, but obviously can't afford him in free agency
Among the teams listed as potential Guerrero suitors in the latest column from Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer? The Seattle Mariners, an AL foe on the opposite coastline with a clear and present need for slugging. Few teams are a better fit on paper... until you start to think more than a few months down the line.
Seattle has the deepest starting rotation in the American League and a top-notch bullpen. The M's keep runs off the board, which puts them in the thick of AL West contention, even with a mediocre offense. The lineup needs a lot of work, though, before we consider Seattle a legitimate World Series threat. Last season's trade for Randy Arozarena was a start, but Guerrero could push the M's to the top of their division — and maybe even the league.
That sounds like a great reason to trade for Guerrero, but we must remember the realities of the MLB hierarchy. The Mariners don't spend top dollar. Ever. Seattle has the 16th-highest payroll right now, spending less than half of what the top-ranked Dodgers and Mets will in 2025. There's no chance Guerrero re-signs there when he could get $500 million-plus on the open market.
Seattle can justify a rental, but the cost would be steep. The M's would need to start conversations by dangling one of their young aces, such as Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller. Anything less than a potential long-term rotation staple coming back to the Blue Jays probably causes Atkins to hang up the phone. Seattle can afford to swap a pitcher for an elite bat, but if Guerrero leaves in the offseason (or when he leaves), the M's will have sacrificed five-plus years of productive pitching for a single campaign with Guerrero. Anything less than a World Series victory would render that a potentially catastrophic miscalculation.
We'd all love to see the four-man gauntlet of Victor Robles, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena leading off games for Seattle, but it would be a short-lived pleasure, and one ultimately not worth the price. Don't expect the Mariners to sacrifice their future like this.