The Whiteboard: Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic found their secret sauce
The Orlando Magic came out of nowhere to claim the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, fighting the Cleveland Cavaliers tooth and nail in a seven-game first round series. Orlando couldn't quite get over the hump, but just reaching the postseason with such a young roster was an accomplishment.
It's not as though the Eastern Conference is a cakewalk. Boston is the reigning champ, New York and Philadelphia (at full strength) are loaded with star-power, and Cleveland feels due for a leap. That said, the door is fully ajar for Orlando to start making noise. The Sixers are hurt. The Knicks are too new. The Cavs, well, we know the formula doesn't always work in the playoffs. The Bucks are old. The Pacers can't defend.
There's a world in which Orlando at least reaches the conference finals before Boston sends 'em home. That should be the operating goal is Disney World, because why the heck not? The whole point is to go out and win as many games as possible. The Magic are young and should be treated with patience as a result, but there's a difference between being patient and being complacent. It's time for the Magic to take a leap.
Thankfully, that seems to be happening.
Paolo Banchero and the Magic are taking the next step
It has been *checks notes* five games as of this writing and the Magic are 3-2, so we should probably pump the breaks a little bit. So much can and will change in the weeks and months ahead. So many noisy stats will die down, and we should get a better sense of how close the Magic truly are to knocking on the Celtics' door in a conference finals matchup.
Generally, I'd advise against overreacting to such a small sample size. And yet, when Paolo Banchero drops 50 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists on the Indiana Pacers (with two blocks and a steal), it's hard not to get a bit jazzed.
Last season, Franz Wagner flew under the radar as Orlando's most dependable two-way, plus-impact "star," even in a wonky shooting year. Banchero was the subject of copious amounts of hype for his massive upside, and rightfully so, but his production was a smidge overrated.
He is trying to flip that narrative in record time this season. It's early, so bear with me, but Banchero appears to be taking "the leap" every fated star takes. The leap from really good to All-NBA, from high upside to fully realized. Of course there is still room for tweaks and growth at 21 years old, but that's precisely what is so intimidating for opponents. Banchero is just now starting to find his footing among the NBA's very best.
You can quibble with certain metrics, and Banchero still needs to ramp up his processing speed on occasion, but few stars are more stylistically enjoyable. Banchero is basically the optimal version of Julius Randle, bulldozing his way through smaller defenders and embracing physicality on drives like prime Ezekiel Elliott searching for a gap in the line. If there isn't a clear lane to the hoop, Banchero will carve it out himself. At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, his ability to navigate tight spaces off the bounce without losing that bludgeoning, brute-force approach is seriously impressive. We talk about stars blending power and finesse all the time, but none quite do it on the same level as Banchero.
There are other encouraging numbers beyond the scoring (29.0 points), which obviously stand out. Banchero is averaging 5.6 assists (a career high) and 2.2 turnovers (a career low). He is also shooting 34.4 percent from deep (a career-high) on 6.4 attempts (a career-high). These numbers need time to settle before we can run away with calling Banchero a bankable shooter or an ultra-efficient playmaker, but the change in his approach and the tightening of the screws is mighty impressive.
Orlando as a whole has followed suit. The Magic needed to improve their shooting this offseason, but the simple addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope wasn't going to miraculously overhaul the Magic's spacing. It needed to be a collective effort, and it's clear Jamahl Mosley's group has bought into the importance of pace and space.
Take, for example, Jalen Suggs. Many questioned if last season's shooting was a fluke. Rather than regress, Suggs is roping 42.5 percent of his 8.0 attempts per game from 3-point range. That is a massive spike in both efficiency and volume. Both numbers will regress to the mean, but Suggs taking 3s at a higher clip, often with more variety than what we saw from him last season. If Banchero, Suggs, Wagner (39.3 percent on 5.6 attempts), and the entire Magic core can keep up the 3-point parade, that will open up countless driving lanes for Banchero. It completely changes the dynamics of this team.
Defense has long been a strong suit for the Magic. Now, all of a sudden, the offense appears to be catching up. Do not discount Orlando when trying to figure out the Eastern Conference hierarchy.
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NBA news roundup:
- For the first time in at least two decades, each NBA team played three games without a single rookie scoring 15 or more points. Not once did it happen. The 2024 draft class has been called "weak" and much worse for a while now, but it's jarring to see such minimal production from rookies up and down the draft board. Here's to hoping better days are ahead.
- "That could have been trash, by the way." So said Draymond Green when asked about Golden State almost landing Lauri Markkanen this past summer. Green was initially pitched on bringing in both Paul George and Markkanen, but after George signed in Philly, it seems that interest waned in Markkanen. Is Draymond telling it like it is, or he is coping in public? Perhaps time will tell.
- Chet Holmgren won his fourth head-to-head duel with Victory Wembanyama rather convincingly, helping to hold the 7-foot-4 wunderkind to just six points in OKC's 105-93 win. The Thunder are the last undefeated team standing in the West, and OKC still isn't at full strength.
- Speaking of undefeated teams, Cleveland is 5-0 after stomping JJ Redick's Lakers on Halloween Eve. The Cavs are equipped with a healthy Darius Garland, a more physical and aggressive Evan Mobley, and a crafty new head coach in Kenny Atkinson. Dare I say, the Cavs deserve your attention and your respect.
Are the 76ers in the Danger Zone?
Joel Embiid and Paul George are both out through at least Friday as the Philadelphia 76ers continue to play without their stars. George's absence, stemming from a gnarly bone bruise suffered in the preseason, is at least based in some form of accepted reality. Embiid's absence, however, remains a complete enigma. We just don't know what the heck is going on here.
After Nick Nurse said for days that this was all part of the "plan" to keep Embiid healthy for the playoffs, an official NBA investigation revealed that Embiid is, in fact, dealing with a "left knee condition." So, not a plan, so much as a response to an ailment, the severity and nature of which we still do not know.
The Sixers were fined $100,000 for their poor communication and frankly, it's well-deserved. You can't keep your fans out of the loop, lest their imaginations run wild.
Embiid has already said that he won't play back-to-backs this season. That's 15 games missed, plus the first couple weeks of this season. We can forget MVP voting or All-NBA nods, but more importantly, how much will Embiid actually play? The Sixers still need the 7-footer to win games and contend in a cutthroat conference. If Embiid misses too much time, whether it's to deal with an injury or prevent an injury, Philadelphia's title hopes could fall by the wayside.
You need to build continuity and chemistry in the NBA, especially after adding several major pieces in the offseason. It's awfully hard to imagine the Sixers getting a long, sustained runway with Embiid at this point. The alarm bells are justifiably ringing in Philadelphia.