Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Why you don’t Overpay for Saves

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You have undoubtedly heard the fantasy baseball adage at some point, “don’t pay for saves”, but do you know the “why”?

Maybe you didn’t need to know the exact logic behind this because you completely trust what the Crackerjacks tell you to do (I get that because after all, we are the experts). However, you should always want to know the logic behind these cardinal rules of fantasy baseball so that:

1. You can understand how to build your team
2. You can identify the exceptions.

What “don’t pay for saves means”, is exactly that, you don’t need to worry about the save statistic, especially in the early stages of any draft.  What it does not mean, is “do not get good relief pitchers.” On the contrary, relief pitchers are as important to your fantasy baseball success as any position, perhaps even more so. Certainly the MRI strategy is fully endorsed here, it is not only a way to pick up cheap saves, but it can even replace an ace pitcher like a Clayton Kershaw!

There reason that saves should not be chased, is because it is a stat wholly dependent on situation. If a guy is not pitching in the ninth inning or later, with a lead of three runs or less and gets the final out then he is ineligible to receive a save. Sorry Brett Myers, or anyone who will be closing for the Astros next season (cough) Jose Valdez (cough). Also, the fact remains, that closers are the highest turnover position in the majors, thanks Tony LaRussa. With the exception of Mariano Rivera and now a few others, there aren’t many guys that are irreplaceable midseason.

Now the main points of this are again, to understand how to build your team and to be able to identify the exceptions.

First, how to build your team. You want balance. With offense it is a little easier to achieve an across the board contributing lineup because you typically have more active roster spots and most guys contribute at least something in every category, and even if they don’t you can balance them out with opposite skill set guys.

Pitching on the other hand is a whole different animal. Depending on your league’s categories specific guys fit specific needs. If your league has quality starts in the mix, you have a little more need for starting pitchers than say if your league using holds, which will force you to employ at least one middle relief guy. As it stands, in a traditional 5×5 you need to have some starters and a few relief pitchers because you never want to punt a whole category in a 5×5 league.

This does not mean you need to have closers, specifically. But you probably cannot go a whole season without starters, because you just wouldn’t come up with enough Ks, possibly wins, and your ERA and WHIP are more vulnerable to a few bad outings messing up the whole situation.

I personally don’t put much money at all into pitching, for the simple fact that I am active an am sure to find plenty of pitchers on the waiver wire throughout the season. If you like to put it into cruise control then you are going to need to spend some money everywhere.

An ace pitcher, will of course give you terrific stats as the foundation of your rotation. However I would not spend the money on a Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw, when a Matt Cain or Cole Hamels will do just fine. Then with a little activity on the wire and perhaps a few middle relievers sprinkled in, you will be set!

Just look at what three middle relief pitchers that were available in EVERY league last year would have meant your team:

These guys are not even close to top tier middle relief talent. and I have to assume that these numbers would have helped your pitching last year.

The next main point in understanding why we don’t pay for saves, is to identify the exceptions. What I have been eluding to is that we want quality pitchers on our team, and a stat like saves is just the icing on the cake. The guys listed above have a little less control than I normally like, say compared to guys like Sean Marshall, Wilton Lopez or Ryan Cook.

Nevertheless they are effective and they are pretty close to 9 Ks per 9 innings. I like my pitchers to carry a 1:1 K:9 ratio, or thereabouts. Again, if you have a guy that is 2:1 then you can take a hit on another safer pitcher.

Although my overall point is that you can indeed end up with very quality relief innings coming from guys later in drafts, there is always the room for a few exceptions.

First and foremost is Craig Kimbrel, and he’ll probably be that way for the next decade. Kimbrel is a strikeout machine (116 Ks in 62.2 innings for a 16.66 K:9) and his numbers across the board justify him being the first relief pitcher off any board. Another stud relief pitcher is Kenley Jansen, who posted 99 Ks in just 65 innings to boast a 13.71 K:9. It also appears that Jonathan Papelbon is back, with his security of the closer job in Philadelphia and his K:9 at a solid 11.83, we certainly have a few great options for stud relievers.

So now you understand the reason why we “don’t pay for saves”, but better yet, you understand exactly what you should be paying for.