College Football Week 6 betting odds: Picking Top 25 teams against the spread
By Mike Dyce
We’re at that point in the fall when the schedules shift from non-conference match ups to conference rivalries. That has created quite the appealing line up of games for Week 6 of the college football season, including six games pitting Top 25 teams against one another.
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The SEC might still be king, three of those six games between Top 25 teams are SEC match ups. There is one in the Big 12, one in the Big 10 and a non-conference pairing.
That will certainly make the betting more interesting going forward. For the first part of the season we were often faced with large spreads between powerhouses and smaller schools, now we’ll see slimmer spreads between in-conference rivals where upsets can happen unexpectedly on a regular basis.
With cautious optimism, let’s dive right in.
Saturday
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 12 Mississippi State
The Saturday line up starts up with a big SEC match up with Texas A&M and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 1 point favorites over the Aggies so this is pretty much a straight up contest. That means you can throw out all the against the spread trends in this one, which wasn’t making a compelling case for the Aggies.
They have similar strong defenses and Mississippi State has an extra week off to prepare after defeating LSU, but I don’t think they can stop the Aggies offense.
No. 20 Ohio State at Maryland
A close match up, the Buckeyes are 8.5 point favorites over Maryland. Ohio State is 3-1 against the spread and Maryland is 3-2 against the spread this season. Maryland’s lone loss was to West Virginia by three points, but I think you have to take the Buckeyes who have been rolling the last few weeks including a 50-28 win over Cincinnati.
Iowa State at No. 21 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State are 17 point favorites at home. Both teams are 2-2 against the spread this season. Iowa State is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games when playing Oklahoma State, go with the Cowbous.
SMU at No. 22 East Carolina
East Carolina are 39.5 point favorites against SMU who have just been getting blown out by everyone. Their closes tame was a 43-6 beating at the hands of North Texas, ride with ECU in this one who are 4-0 against the spread this year.
No. 4 Oklahoma at No. 25 TCU
The Sooners are five point favorites against TCU and this game could be viewed as a bit of a trap game with the Sooners looking ahead to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. That being said I think the Sooners cover, with the way the Sooners have been outscoring opponents this year thanks to a defense that has shown it can be stingy in three out of four games, I think they can cover the five points easy.
Wake Forest at No. 1 Florida State
Florida State come into the game against Wake Forest as 39 point favorites. That is a huge margin and the Seminoles are 0-4 against the spread this year. They also haven’t been winning by huge staggering margins including a 37-12 win over The Citadel, a somewhat stunning result. I think you take Wake Forest and the points here.
No. 3 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss
Another SEC Top 25 match up. Alabama are 6-point favorites over Ole Miss on the road. The Crimson Tide is 1-3 against the spread this year, which has included some large spreads, and Ole Miss is 4-0 against the spread. The real bet here might be the under, but I think you roll with the Rebels. Alabama is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games against Ole Miss, 2-4 against the spread in their last six games on the road against Ole Miss.
No. 7 Baylor at Texas
Baylor comes into this game as 16 point favorites.. That is based basically on their offensive prowess. Both teams have solid records against the spread this year, but the Longhorns are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at home against Baylor and 1-6 in their last seven against Baylor. Bears cover.
No. 14 Stanford at No. 9 Notre Dame
Another Top 25 match up. Stanford are 1-point favorites on the road, making the Notre Dame being the home-dogs. That means this is basically a straight up pick, so spread trends won’t matter much here. This game pits two outstanding defenses against one another. Stanford has only really played USC and Washington, both were single digit wins. Notre Dame have more convincing wins over Michigan and Syracuse, I think Notre Dame wins.
No. 17 Wisconsin at Northwestern
Wisconsin are 9.5 point favorites on the road against Northwestern, and both teams are 1-3 against the spread. Wisconsin has had Northwestern’s number in recent meetings and given its offensive output this year and stingy defense I think you can roll with the Badgers.
Vanderbilt at No. 13 Georgia
The Bulldogs are 32.5 point favorites in this game, a margin that seems just to large, especially with Georgia coming off a 35-32 win over Tennessee. Georgia is 4-9-2 against the spread in its last 15 games, and 3-5-1 against the spread in its last nine home games. I think you take Vandy and the points.
No. 15 LSU at No. 5 Auburn
The last of the SEC Top 25 match ups. Auburn are 8.5 point favorites at home against the LSU Tigers, who lost to Mississippi State earlier this seasons. LSU is 4-1 against the spread this year while Auburn is 2-2. LSU is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games on the road against Auburn, 3-6 against the spread in their last nine against Auburn regardless of location. I think it’ll be close with similar offense and similarly stingy defenses, I think you can take LSU and the points here.
Texas Tech at No. 23 Kansas State
Kansas State are 12.5 point favorites against Texas Tech. Both have less than convincing trends against the spread overall, but Kansas State is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five games at home against Texas Tech and 3-6 against the spread in its last nine games when playing Texas Tech overall. Take the Red Raiders and the points.
Arizona State at No. 16 USC
USC are 11.5 point favorites against Arizona State. Arizona State is coming off a big loss to UCLA last season and are just 1-3 against the spread this season. Arizona State has covered three of the last four against the Trojans in Los Angeles, but I think you take USC.
No. 19 Nebraska at No. 10 Michigan State
The final Top 25 match up of the day. Michigan State are 8.5 point favorites, and both teams have failed to cover the game just one time. The lean here might be over, but I think you have to take the Spartans if betting the spread. The Cornhuskers have the motivation, to avenge last year’s loss, but the Spartans have looked good.
Utah at No. 8 UCLA
UCLA is coming off a big win against Arizona State and are 13 point favorites against Utah, who are coming off a one-point loss to Washington State. Utah is 3-1 against the spread while UCLA is 1-3 against the spread. Utah’s offense averages more points and their defense gives up less in comparison to UCLA, I think you have to take the Utes and the points in this game.
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