Domantas Sabonis Scouting Report: January 2016
Few big men in college basketball have had the type of season Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis is currently enjoying. In his freshman season with the Bulldogs, Sabonis averaged 9.7 points and 7.1 rebounds coming off the bench for Mark Few’s squad. This year, with an increased role, Sabonis has delivered with averages of 17.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game on 63.5 percent shooting from the floor.
The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis, Domantas has solidified himself as not just one of the best big men in college basketball, but also as one of the top centers in the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft. While he won’t likely hear his name called in the lottery, he has the tools to develop into a serviceable backup for a competitive team.
STRENGTHS
All of the things Sabonis does well stems from his relentless motor. He is constantly in fourth gear running up and down the floor. He gets a few looks each game by simply running harder than anyone else.
One of the reasons running the floor hard is appealing for big men is that they can get a deep seal posting up if they’re able to beat their man down the court.
That’s especially important for Sabonis because posting up is his bread and butter. According to Synergy Sports, 45.7 percent of Sabonis’ offense comes through the post, 53rd most frequent of players who have had at least 50 post ups this season. Of those 220 players with at least 50 post ups, Sabonis’ 1.201 points per post up possession is the third most efficient.
A lot of his success in the post comes from that motor. He definitely favors his right shoulder because he is left handed, but nobody in college can stop him going that way.
What really makes Sabonis special as a post up player is the array of counter moves he has. Take away his first option and he will make another move to score. He relentlessly attacks until he gets what he wants.
The other thing that Sabonis does well is rebounding. His 10.9 rebounds per game is ninth in all of Division 1 and he ranks seventh in total rebounds. A lot of his success in that department is predicated on effort, so it makes sense that Sabonis is among the best in the country given what we know about how hard he plays.
WEAKNESSES
Even though Sabonis works hard, the overall athleticism in his game is lacking. He doesn’t have much of a vertical or lateral quickness, which comes back to bite him in a few ways.
At 6-10, he is seen as a “tweener” for the NBA — he isn’t tall enough to play center and he is too slow to be a power forward. Since the NBA is trending to be a more four out, one in league, Sabonis playing power forward presents a lot of problems defensively. He isn’t quick enough to guard perimeter players and close out on shooters in time.
On this possession, for example, he executes the rotation perfectly but he just can’t jump out to the shooter in time to contest or run him off the 3-point line.
Lots of teams in the NBA will switch their power forwards out onto perimeter players. Sabonis’ lack of foot speed holds him back from being able to do that.
Gonzaga’s game against Tennessee showed all the good and bad that comes with Sabonis. While he had an impressive stat line of 36 points and 16 rebounds, the Volunteers repeatedly went at Sabonis down the stretch by feeding the ball to his man.
The problems on defense have led to some high fouling games for Sabonis. His lack of foot speed and athleticism means that he can get behind on defense a lot, causing him to foul. Gonzaga’s performance suffers when Sabonis gets into foul trouble, most notably their early season loss to Texas A&M, when heonly played 18 minutes and registered two points and four rebounds. Gonzaga has had to play a fair amount of zone this season, partly so teams don’t continue to attack Sabonis on the defensive end. Teams in the NBA are too smart to let you hide, and given his limitations on defense, Sabonis will have to strictly play center.
GROWTH
Sabonis has a few areas of his game that you could see improving when he gets to the league. For starters, even though he favors his left hand a ton, he has a nice touch with his right hand as well. When he goes over his left shoulder instead of his right shoulder, his right hand hook shot looks natural.
That type of touch can also be turned into a reliable jump shot in due time. His form looks smooth and he has been willing to take 18-footers in pick and pop or face up situations. He is also an 82.6 percent free throw shooter, which is often the best indicator when it comes to whether or not a player will be able to shoot in the NBA.
Another part of his offensive game that he should be able to add is an ability to pass, especially out of the post. Right now, whenever he catches the ball, he is always looking to score. When he does pass, however, it is on time and on target to his shooter.
When he gets to the NBA, his coaches will work on reading the help faster — where it comes from, where his shooter will be, and when to throw that pass.
His defense can improve as well, even if he never become a bouncy center who can block shots at the rim. For most big men who are slow, coaches will have them drop back on a pick and roll, a technique that gives the ball handler space while the player guarding the roll man essentially retreats to wall off the rim. It isn’t always the best strategy, but it is the best option for someone like Sabonis and something he can have success with.
Sabonis is able to drop back a step or two then recover in time to stop his man from having a clear path to the basket. Against guards who can shoot, they will have a wide open shot off that ball screen. With Sabonis doing this, however, it only involves two defenders in the action and will keep the offense from moving the ball and getting a better look.
OUTLOOK
It is hard to see a scenario where Sabonis becomes a starter in the NBA. Post up players require the ball in their hands way too much for them to have an offense run through them if they aren’t going to be the best or second best player on the team. Sabonis can function as a ball screener in a more free flowing offense, but that would be taking him out of what he does best. Defensively, he will be the weak link in starting lineups and other teams will exploit that night in and night out.
What would be best for Sabonis is if he became the backup center. He could be the focal point on offense for second units while also being used as a pick and roll/pick and pop guy. His passing can improve enough to where he can make plays out of the post if help comes from different areas, which is key for players who are going to have the ball in their hands a lot.
Teams drafting in the lottery are likely looking for players who will be starters at some point. I’m not sure Sabonis will ever be that, but teams like the Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and the Detroit Pistons, who are all in need of a backup center, could take him in the 18-24 range on draft night.