Chicago Cubs 2016 Fantasy Outlook
By Mike Marteny
Chicago Cubs 2016 Fantasy Outlook
Are the Cubs now the favorite in the NL Central? This looks like a team that can win now, especially if all their young hitters hit like they did in the minors. There is more than cautious optimism on the North Side this year. There is belief that the curse could end.
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That’s great, you say, but how will that affect my fantasy team? We have you covered. Whether you play in standard leagues, deep leagues, multi-position leagues, dynasty leagues, or anything in between, we will give you the rundown on the players who will be starting at each position. We will also give you a hint of where they should be drafted.
Just in case you missed any:
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs 2016 Projected Starting Lineup:
C: Miguel Montero (.248, 15HR, 54RBI in 347AB)
1B: Anthony Rizzo (.278, 31HR, 101RBI, 17SB)
2B: Ben Zobrist (.276, 13HR, 56RBI with OAK/KC)
SS: Addison Russell (.242, 13HR, 54RBI)
3B: Kris Bryant (.274, 26HR, 99RBI)
LF: Kyle Schwarber (.246, 16HR, 43RBI in 232AB)
CF: Dexter Fowler (.250, 17HR, 46RBI, 20SB)
RF: Jason Heyward (.293, 13HR 60RBI, 23SB)
If Montero can stay healthy, he puts up numbers that make him a decent low end catcher in standard leagues. Just be aware that he could have a short shelf life.
To me, Rizzo is only a notch below Paul Goldschmidt. He is a safe pick near the end of the first round. There is room for improvement as the lineup around him gets better. His numbers could wind up pretty close to Goldschmidt’s, and on par with the other first round picks.
Zobrist’s position eligibility still keeps him as a solid bench option in standard leagues. He still hits for a decent average and has a little bit of pop. A move to Wrigley Field should help his numbers out some.
You could see the potential with Russell last year. His averaged suffered some at the highest level, but he showed good power. He is a good bet for 20-25 home runs. If he can get his average up around .270, he will be a top 5 shortstop.
Bryant hit at every level before getting to the majors, so there is little surprise that he is a top three third baseman in fantasy. He will be taken somewhere in the first round in every league. Third base gets thin after Bryant.
Schwarber’s power is real. He smacked 16 homers in just 232 at bats. That projects to roughly 35 home runs over a full season. He wont hit for a great average, but it will be good enough for the power that he provides. Fantasy players seem undecided on Schwarber. I’ve seen him go in the third to the mid fifth.
If Fowler can get his average back up near his career mark of .265, he will be a solid third outfielder. There is a chance that he could flirt with a 20/20 season. He should also score a lot more runs with the improvements that the Cubs made to the offense. Fowler could be a steal in the middle rounds.
Jason Heyward’s power numbers suffered in St. Louis, but they should be in for a rebound in Wrigley Field. Heyward could be a good bounceback candidate. I expect his numbers to come back in Chicago. If he hits around .280 and has a 25/25 season, he will easily be worth the pick you use on him.
Next: How Will The Rotation Shape Up?
Chicago Cubs 2016 Projected Pitching Rotation:
Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236K)
Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 207K)
John Lackey (13-10, 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 175K)
Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 171K)
Kyle Hendricks (8-7, 3.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 167K)
Hector Rondon (6-4, 1.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 69K in 70IP, 30/34 saves)
Arrieta has been the second pitcher off the board in a lot of drafts this year, but is he worth it? Can he possibly duplicate those numbers with half his games at Wrigley? I have my doubts, but if Arrieta is still out there in the third round, he is mine!
Lester put up really good peripheral numbers last year. The wins will come. He is not an elite starter, but I would be happy to have him as my number two starter.
Lackey had a good year last year. Can he do it again at the age of 37? He still makes me nervous pitching in Wrigley, but he is still going to be a solid back of the rotation starter in standard leagues.
Hammel has put up solid numbers as a Cub. His win total should inflate this year operating as the fourth starter and with a much better offense supporting him. He is also worth a shot at the back of standard league rotations.
Hendricks is statistically the worst Cub starter, and he is still worthy of at least a spot start in standard leagues. The potential is there for him to put up better numbers than last year as well.
Rondon was a solid closer for the Cubs last year, and he should have more save opportunities this year. He is a solid second tier closer this year.
Next: What Prospects Are Worth Watching?
We will take a look at a few prospects that could crack the majors for the Cubs this year, and in what type of leagues you should be looking for them in. Most of the Cubs’ youth movement made the team last year. Are there any left for this year? Let’s get started!
Willson Contreras, C: Contreras became the best catching prospect in the minors last year once Kyle Schwarber was promoted. Contreras hit .333 with 8 homers and 75 RBI at AA Tennessee last year. Montero is still taking a lot of reps in the majors, but if he gets hurt again or struggles, he may not get his job back. Contreras should be a hot target in all dynasty leagues. If he gets the call to the majors, he could be useful in any fantasy league because of his ability to put the bat on the ball.
Pierce Johnson, RHP: Johnson is the best Cubs arm in the high minors. The rotation looks very strong right now, but if injuries hit or inconsistency strikes, Johnson could get a look in the rotation this year. If he does, you deep leaguers should keep an eye on him.
Carl Edwards, RHP: Edwards has a lot of movement on his pitches, and could become a devastating closer if he can harness his command. Rondon has a firm grip on the job right now, but we all know how fickle the closer position can be. Edwards could make the majors as a strong late inning reliever, and could be worth a shot for those of you chasing WHIP/ERA help or if your league counts holds.
Ryan Williams, RHP: Williams is another guy with a lot of movement on his pitches, making him hard to hit. The Cubs will likely initially use him as a reliever. He likely wont help much in fantasy this year, but he is worth keeping an eye on if he gets called up for those of you in deep leagues.
Next: Can Alfred Morris Bounce Back?
Stay tuned for the rundown of every MLB team before Opening Day, our daily FanDuel picks, and the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament!