Golden State Warriors offseason review
By Ian Levy
As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Golden State Warriors.
The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors set the NBA record for most wins in a single season. It took a superhuman effort from LeBron James and a historic comeback from his Cleveland Cavaliers to separate the Golden State Warriors from the championship. So what do you do in the offseason when you’re already one of the best teams in history? You get better.
Inputs: Damian Jones (C, NBA Draft pick No. 30); Patrick McCaw (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 38); Kevin Durant (SF, signed for two years, $54 million); David West (PF, signed for one year, $1.5 million); Zaza Pachulia (C, signed for one year, $3 million)
Outputs: Marreese Speights (PF, signed with the Los Angeles Clippers); Harrison Barnes (SF, signed with the Dallas Mavericks); Brandon Rush (SG, signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves); Festus Ezeli (C, signed with the Portland Trail Blazers); Leandro Barbosa (SG, signed with the Phoenix Suns); Andrew Bogut (C, traded to the Dallas Mavericks)
Retained: Anderson Varejao (C, signed for one year, $1.5 million), Ian Clark (SG, signed for one year, $1 million), James Michael McAdoo (PF, signed for one year, $1 million)
Pending: None
The Warriors went out and snared Kevin Durant the grand prize of the summer and one of the five best players in the league. His shooting and playmaking will be a seamless fit as he slides into Harrison Barnes’ role. He offers the ability to create his own shot as well, which should allow Steve Kerr to stagger minutes more conservatively for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. In addition, Durant’s length means he can still defend power forwards and maintain the defensive integrity of The Death Lineup.
The rest of the league is in trouble.
Signing Durant did mean letting some important bench players go, but Golden State did a good job of fillin in the holes. Zaza Pachulia is not the rim protector that Bogut was, but he will help on the boards, is an excellent passer, and has some range on his jumpshot. David West was another fantastic pick-up, a great passer and someone who can exploit a mismatch or help offer some spacing on offense.
Ignoring free agency, Golden State also had themselves a pretty nice draft. Damion James is a big athletic frontcourt player who will need some time to develop. Patrick McCaw is someone who was talked about as a fringe lottery pick and the Warriors were able to get him in the middle of the second round. He has a lot of potential as a 3-and-D wing and handled some point guard duties for UNLV as well.
All in all, a pretty good few months.
3 Big Questions
To really dig deep on Golden State’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Warriors expertise. Andy Liu (@AndyKHLiu) is a staff writer for SBNation’s Golden State of Mind. Derek James (@DerekJamesNBA) is a contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm. Charles Rahrig (@c_rahrig) is a regular contributor to FanSided and the editor of FanSided’s Blue Man Hoop.
Andy, Derek, and Charles were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Golden State’s offseason.
So, Kevin Durant huh?
Andy Liu: It won’t become a real thing that happened in NBA history until Kevin Durant steps on the Oracle floor alongside Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. What’s perhaps the most insane part about this is given the media coverage in today’s world, we got to understand almost to a tee, why Kevin Durant chose to leave his longtime team to join his friends, their biggest competitor in a move that will shake the Association forever. The stories about the meetings, about his relationship with Green, Westbrook, and his entire mindset from then until now. Whoever is writing the story on these Golden State Warriors has a lot of work left to do.
Derek James: I’m intrigued by this for obvious reasons. This team will field four all-star caliber players in Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. I don’t think things will come as easily for the Warriors early on, in comparison to last year at least, as it’s not easy to incorporate a major piece like Durant. Aside from the Big 3 Boston Celtics, these teams take time to come together. There’s a twist, though. The Warriors may not have beyond this year to win with Durant as he’s on a short term contract.
I say this: good for Durant. We killed Carmelo Anthony for talking about rings then re-signing with the Knicks. The issue wasn’t that he took the money — I would take that kind of money — but that it seemed contradictory to talk about wanting to win big while re-signing with a mediocre Knicks team. Durant has long talked about wanting to win and he went to the best possible place to do it. So I’m not buying the moral hand-wringing. There will be the pressures of sacrifice and playing with a target on their back as they navigate the long season. It should be fun to see if Durant and the Warriors can meet their lofty expectations.
Charles Rahrig: How often does a team get three top-10 players and a guy that’s perennially up for Defensive Player of the Year in the same lineup? Never is the answer and it still doesn’t seem real at this point. What is real is the fact that the Warriors are now going to be able to provide a variety of new sets and looks on the floor next year. While everyone is thinking about the championships that they can win — I am looking at the rotations Steve Kerr is going to fiddle with at the beginning of the season. That’s where we’re going to be able to decipher real quick this year just what lineups we can look forward to in the playoffs.
The Warriors bench will be this season.
Andy Liu: Much more explosive. The Warriors built up a lot of their success off the Strength in Numbers slogan. That was always overrated. Without spectacular shotmaking from Marreese Speights, Shaun Livingston, and Leandro Barbosa, the bench often lacked punch and defense. Now imagine Curry and Draymond finishing off the first quarters while Durant and Klay come off the bench to start the second quarter with guys like David West and Andre Iguodala. Methinks they’ll be fine.
Derek James: I’m with Andy in thinking they’ll be fine. The only reason all four of the Big 4 should be sitting is in the fourth quarter when they’re up by 30. That means they can stagger their all-stars with the bench. To me, being able to have Andre Iguodola check in for Durant and other like scenarios are what really make the Warriors scary. Not many teams have a bench player that can check a Curry, Durant, Green, or Thompson.
Charles Rahrig: Young and exciting to watch. While there will be the usual veterans on the bench, the Warriors also have a great deal of young talent that is going to get their chance to sink or swim. Guys like Ian Clark, James Michael McAdoo, Patrick McCaw, Kevon Looney and to an extent, Damian Jones will get their chance to show what they can do. If they aren’t up to the task, the rotation will be cut short real quick.
In terms of managing the rotation, what is the biggest challenge for the Warriors this season?
Andy Liu: Play Draymond Green at center as little as possible in the regular season. Play Draymond Green at center as much as possible in the postseason. Kerr cost the Warriors a chance at a title by inserting Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli for no real reason in the NBA Finals. Making that mistake again would prove, to put it blatantly, downright dumb.
Derek James: We saw how important Green was for them. To Andy’s point, it makes sense to have guys like Pachulia and Varejao who can take that beating down low to keep Green fresh. Overall, I think just making sure that they can keep each of Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green involved in every game. Sometimes that’s easier said than done for a burgeoning super team.
Charles Rahrig: We know who the four superstars on this team are. The Warriors’ motto has always been strength in numbers and although some depth pieces have departed, they still feel that they have the numbers. Who’s going to be that guy that steps up and leads as the fifth option?
The best of the best
There is no way around it — the Golden State Warriors are loaded this season. They have the best point guard in the league. Their shooting guard, small forward, and power forward all arguably rank among the two or three best at their position. The bench is stacked with solid contributors. This is a historic collection of talent.
The graph below shows the distribution of all players from last season by Justin Willard’s new Dredge metric — a detailed play-by-play derived estimate of a player’s net impact per 100 possessions. The Warriors current roster (minus rookies) are highlighted.
Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green, and David West (!) all rank in the 94th percentile or better, compared to all players from last season. Andre Iguodala is in the 88th. Shaun Livingston and Zaza Pachulia are both above the 80th percentile. That’s a full eight-man rotation of very, very, very good players.
Of course, they have to stay healthy. They have to figure out rotations and matchups. They have to figure out how to balance opportunities between their many perimeter scorers.
But, yeah, the rest of the league is in trouble.
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