The Case Against Ezekiel Elliott
By Perry Lowe
Is Ezekiel Elliot Being Overdrafted As A Rookie?
Ezekiel Elliott is currently being viewed as a player who could have a historic rookie season. While that is certainly a possibility, Elliott also has a high potential to bust. Like many running backs who have come before him Elliott does have the potential to fail, at least in his rookie season. Historically, the first running back selected has not been a high producer in fantasy. They are generally outpaced by their classmates and rarely finish as the top rookie running back.
Rare Cases
Since 2007, the first running back being selected in the draft has only once finished as the number one rookie running back. Todd Gurley was the exception last season after his historic season. Another fact that must be addressed is that it is yet to happen in back to back seasons in the modern era. The odds are certainly stacked against Elliott. When considering where he is being selected, it is far too high of a risk in my opinion.
Historical Battle
History is not on the side of Ezekiel Elliott. Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson were the last two running backs to accomplish the feat of finishing as the top fantasy running back in their rookie seasons. These are two historical cases with Peterson having an absolutely dominant season. Gurley also played extremely well in his rookie season despite injuries. Outside of these two exceptions, there are very few cases of any rookie running back finishing first. Elliott is a great football player from a historical perspective, but it is highly unlikely that he will finish where he is expected.
High Draft Position
Currently Ezekiel Elliott is being selected as the sixth overall player. This is one of the highest selections for any rookie running back. When put in perspective, it seems like a large risk to take Elliott over any of the players around him. In the first round most players are selecting their cornerstone player.
Another important thing to factor in is the talent around him in Dallas. Alfred Morris could threaten to take his job if he does not perform during the regular season. Elliott is a high risk – high reward player, but in my opinion is more likely to bust.
Ultimatum
Ezekiel Elliott could be another rare exception with rookie running backs, but it is very unlikely. There is a lot of talent behind him in Dallas that could threaten his role as the starter. No rookie running back has ever been selected this high in a fantasy draft. That’s right, not even Adrian Peterson. Elliott is a huge risk to select in the first round, but there is always a chance that it could pan out. Overall in my opinion, Elliott is far too high of a risk in the first round and should be avoided this season unless he falls into the second round.