DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 7 Top Plays
By Ty Wrage
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 7 Top Plays is a column that finds the players who are in the best situation to do well that week based primarily off opportunity and match up. You’ll get an insight into the mind of a consistently profitable DFS player and give yourself the best chance at hitting it big on the week’s slate!
Last week was absolutely incredible for you if you read this article; all the picks I wrote up had nice days. Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy in particular had the kind of multiple-touchdown days that could’ve put you in GPP contention when building your DraftKings NFL Picks!
At the beginning of the week, it looked like week 7 was going to be fairly tight for pricing. However, after injuries to several key players around the league, this slate is suddenly wide open. There is enough value that allows you to play just about any stack you want, so it should be a really fun week with several very chalky inexpensive guys and room for variance at the top. Let’s dive in!
DraftKings NFL Picks: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady ($7,900): Now that Belichick has Brady back under center, he has dramatically increased the volume in the passing game as they go back to a lot more hurry-up offense. In two blowouts against Cincinnati and Cleveland, Brady has attempted 40 and 35 passes. The Patriots are 7 point favorites against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers, but Brady’s volume has proven to be relatively safe regardless of game flow.
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On top of that, Pittsburgh is the biggest funnel team in the league; they allow the third-largest opponent passing play percentage, with opposing teams passing on a whopping 66.15% of their plays. Cleveland and Cincinnati are both bottom 10 in this statistic, so it’s reasonable to believe that Brady could top 45 passing attempts here. The Steelers are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to QB’s, and a passer like Brady should find a lot of success against them.
Kirk Cousins ($5,900): With all the value available this week, I don’t imagine you’ll need to go cheap at QB, but if you go that route Cousins looks like your best bet. The Redskins passing game is suddenly loaded with weapons from D-Jax to Jordan Reed, to Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon even contributing. Because of this, they’ve shifted to a more pass-heavy system, throwing the ball on 63% of their plays.
Detroit has been terrible at stopping the pass, giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Darius Slay is the only player to avoid, and with the spread-out target distribution for the Redskins that shouldn’t make much of a difference on their offense. Detroit is a 1 point favorite here and the third highest Vegas total on the slate, so Cousins will get consistent work through 4 quarters. YOU LIKE THAT?!?
Others I Like: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston
DraftKings NFL Picks: Running Backs
Demarco Murray ($7,200): Murray had a bit of a disappointing week against the Browns, although he did manage to salvage the day a bit with a late score. Don’t let that deter you from going back to him this week against the Colts, though. Tennessee remains committed to Murray as a bell cow by giving him 21 touches last week compared to just 4 for rookie Derrick Henry.
The Browns have been surprisingly average against the run this year, but the Colts have been far from it. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this year, and most recently was torched by Lamar Miller for 149 yards and a score. The Titans’ sputtering offense is favored in this one and is projected to score over 25 points, which says more about the Colts’ defense than the Tennessee offense. With all the value at RB, Murray should be relatively low owned.
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Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,300): This is the biggest lock and easiest play of the NFL season so far. Forget ownership; if you don’t have Jacquizz Rodgers this week you’re not going to do well. Doug Martin won’t play and Charles Sims is on IR, so Rodgers is the only option the Bucs have at RB. Last week, when given the start against the Panthers, he had a whopping 36 touches. 36 freaking touches. If they’re willing to give ‘Quizz that kind of run against Carolina, imagine what they’ll do against the 49ers.
The Niners play at a Chip Kelly-pace, but because they don’t have the personnel to actually move the ball, they end up giving up a lot of quick three-and-outs. Teams run a lot of plays on them, and it’s not going to help with Carlos Hyde, their only viable offensive threat, sidelined this week. The Bucs will walk all over San Francisco and ‘Quizz is going to be the main beneficiary.
Mike Gillislee ($3,000): Again: this is the biggest lock and easiest play of the NFL season so far. Forget ownership; if you don’t have Mike Gillislee in your lineup you’re not going to do well. Lesean McCoy is officially out this week after suffering a hamstring injury in practice, so Gillislee will take on lead-back duties in a dream matchup vs. the Dolphins.
I’ve targeted lead backs against Miami every week in this column, and it’s been successful every week. They run a Wide 9 defensive scheme on a lot of plays, which gives them an advantage on the outsides but leaves them weak up the middle. Combine that with an offense that’s had trouble getting off the ground, and it’s a recipe for a lot of rushing attempts against a weak rushing defense. Yes please.
Others I Like: Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Spencer Ware, Mark Ingram, Theo Riddick, James White, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Jones
DraftKings NFL Picks: Wide Receivers
Mike Evans ($7,800): Tampa Bay has been hit really hard with injuries, but for DFS that means that we’re just narrowing the usage distribution, and this week Mike Evans seems to be an obvious benefactor of it. Vincent Jackson is out, and if the past tells us anything, it’s that this is really good for Mike Evans.
Since the start of last season, in 14 games with Jackson, Evans has averaged 9.5 targets per game. In the 6 games without Jackson, he averages 12.5 targets per game. He averages 72.4 yards with Jackson, and 107.7 yards without him. Rashard Robinson will line up against Evans for a lot of the game, and while that’s not an easy match up, with that kind of target load Evans should be in for a big day.
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Brandon Marshall ($7,600): I know, Geno Smith is starting at QB for the Jets, but don’t let that take you off Brandon Marshall this week. In 2015, Geno threw 42 passes and 17 of them were intended for Marshall. With Eric Decker out, Marshall’s a lock for even more targets. Baltimore is a very pass-heavy offense and the Jets should run a lot of plays here. The Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this game and I expect them to pass the ball through 4 quarters.
Marshall draws a match up with the Ravens that I believe is favorable. Marshall lines up on the left side of the field on 48% of his snaps and the right on 33%. This means he’ll line up against Jimmy Smith about half the time and Shareece Wright about a third of the time. Smith hasn’t been great this year and is dealing with a concussion, although he is likely to play. Wright is a train wreck, and I’ll target just about any receiver in the league who’s blessed with that match up.
Mike Wallace ($5,800): Hey look! Another pick who makes the article because of an injury to another player! Steve Smith Sr. is out again this week, giving Mike Wallace another chance to step up as the WR1. The targets have been there the last three weeks (10, 11, 9) but that hasn’t necessarily translated into huge fantasy points yet. However, anyone getting that kind of target load is going to have some sort of floor, and a receiver with as much home-run potential as Wallace has huge upside.
Wallace has actually not had great matchups, finding himself against Sean Smith/David Amerson, Josh Norman, and Janoris Jenkins the last 3 weeks. This week, though, Wallace gets to line up against Marcus Williams, Darrelle Revis and Buster Skrine, all of which have earned below average ratings on Pro Football Focus this season. When evaluating a deep threat like Wallace, though, we have to look at the opposing safeties as well, and Calvin Pryor and Marcus Gilchrist have been far from spectacular this year. Wallace should be relatively low owned because no one likes to roster Mike Wallace, but fire him up in cash and GPP’s.
Mohammed Sanu ($4,400): If you do need value at the wide receiver position, I think that Sanu is in a good spot to provide that. He’s been working through injury for most of the season, but it looks like he’s starting to get closer to 100%. His targets have been up the last two weeks, and last week he got 10 with the Seahawks focusing on stopping Julio Jones. Sanu also has been a red zone threat for the Falcons so there’s a lot of upside.
This week against San Diego is a very good matchup for Sanu, who spends 57% of his snaps in the slot. Jason Verrett is out for the Chargers which means Craig Mager will play in the slot. Mager has been awful this year, with just a 50.1 rating out of 100 on Pro Football Focus. Jones will draw a tough matchup with Casey Heyward, and while I fully expect Jones to have success too, Sanu might get a few extra balls thrown his way due to the tough matchups on the outside.
Others I Like: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, Julian Edelman, Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Quincy Enunwa, Jamison Crowder
DraftKings NFL Picks: Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski ($7,200): Gronk is officially back after posting a 7 catch, 162 yard, 1 touchdown game last week against the Bengals. The Patriots’ pass-catching situation will be a little bit of a crapshoot this season (especially with Martellus Bennett still getting targets), but I’d be surprised if the Patriots decreased Gronk’s usage. He’s too physically talented, and he and Brady have an obvious connection. Gronk is a great play for all the same reasons as Brady; the Steelers funnel teams into passing a lot more than normal. The Steelers’ safeties and linebackers are not good in coverage, so expect Gronk to have a field day against them in coverage.
Jack Doyle ($2,500): Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee will get a lot of the attention as the top value plays this week, but Jack Doyle offers phenomenal upside and value at minimum price. Dwayne Allen is out, and Doyle has shown to be the better pass-catching option even with Allen active. Phillip Dorsett is most likely out this week, leaving almost all the Andrew Luck targets to go to T.Y. Hilton and Doyle. The Titans aren’t a bad defense this year, but it’s nothing I’m scared of targeting. Play Doyle in all formats.
Others I Like: Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate
DraftKings NFL Picks: Defenses
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600): If you’re trying to play daily fantasy football, I don’t need to tell you this. But just in case: the Cleveland Browns are really bad. Cody Kessler will continue to start under center, which is not ideal. The Bengals defense is good enough that it shouldn’t give up many fluky points here, and there is a lot of upside given how much the Browns are likely going to have to hurry up their offense to try and catch up.
New England Patriots ($2,900): The Patriots were clearly priced before the news of Ben Roethlisberger‘s injury, because the Steelers offense takes a massive hit without him running the show. I’d expect the Patriots to jump out to an early lead on Pittsburgh and not look back. I wouldn’t pair the Patriots D/ST with Brady/Gronk stacks in GPP’s because they are negatively correlated; if the Pats are still passing through all 4 quarters it means the Steelers are scoring points. In cash, though, feel free to pair them with Brady for their high floors.
Others I Like: Vikings, Bills, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Ravens
Best of luck in Week 7!