5 reasons the Patriots will still go to Super Bowl 51 without Rob Gronkowski
By Adam Cox
Rob Gronkowski will miss the rest of the season due to back surgery. Here are five reasons why this does little to prevent the Patriots from reaching Super Bowl 51.
When New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski ruptured a disk in his back the team initially expected he would return relatively quickly. The Patriots then announced, however, that following surgery Gronkowski would most likely miss the rest of the regular season as well as the playoffs. This was made official today as Gronkowski was placed on IR.
The question for the New England Patriots now becomes, what does this mean for the rest of their regular season and their chances to play in Super Bowl LI?
First, Tom Brady is appreciably better when Gronkowski is in the lineup. When Gronkowski plays, Tom Brady plays like, well, Brady. In those 19 regular season games in which Gronkowski was inactive, Brady plays like Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rob Gronkowski makes over a 20 point difference in terms of Brady’s QB rating (103.5 vs. 82.4).
Second, without Gronkowski the Patriots have struggled in the playoffs. Without a fully healthy Gronkowski in 2012 and 2013 the Patriots offense was anemic in those AFC title games.
However, this doesn’t mean the Patriots can’t make it to the Super Bowl this season without Gronkowski. That’s because the question is not whether or not the Patriots are the same team without Gronkowski, it’s whether or not they’re still better than the other AFC title contenders.
Here are five reasons why the Patriots must still be considered the favorite in the AFC.
5. The Patriots offense is still really good
The Patriots, however, are not appreciably better when Gronkowski is in the lineup. Gronkowski has been inactive in a total of 22 games over the course of his career. In those games the Patriots are 14-5 in the regular season and 1-2 in the playoffs.
According to Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report, since the beginning of the 2012, Gronkowski has been inactive or limited (playing less than 70 percent of New England’s offensive snaps) in 27 regular season games. In those games the Patriots are 21-6 (.778) and averaged 26.4 points per game. This would be sixth in the NFL for the 2016-17 season.
Over the course of the 47 games in which Gronkowski was fully healthy, the Patriots are 36-11 (.766) and averaged 32.0 points per game. This would be second in the NFL for the 2016-17 NFL season.
The difference is almost a full touchdown, but it is not cataclysmic. This season, during which Gronkowski has been healthy for four games, the Patriots are averaging 26.6 points per game. This is sixth in the NFL.
Perhaps most importantly, the Patriots are averaging 115.8 rushing yards per game. This is seventh in the NFL. New England has been at their best when it has been able to run the ball.
In other words, with or without Gronkowski the Patriots’ offense is one of the best in the NFL. And they still win games.