FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 31
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 84 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.9 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Before we get into today’s picks, this slate screams Stars and Scrubs with six players priced above $10k on the slate and all the big names being in play. As a result, I think a more balanced approach will allow you to build a completely different roster construction as I expect the mid-tier guys will go largely overlooked. Although all the studs are certainly in play, let’s take a look at the next level of players to find the best plays that have GPP upside but will likely go under-owned.
Kemba Walker ($8,300) and Damian Lillard ($8,300) One of the best things about this slate is we have six games with solid totals (211+) so we should be able to spread out our exposure and get solid fantasy production across the board.
The Hornets/Trail Blazers game has a solid 214 combined team total and the smallest Vegas spread of any game on this slate with only a 3 point advantage for Portland. I love the idea of stacking the two point guards in this game in what should be a close/competitive contest.
Walker gets one of the best individual match-ups on the board as Damian Lillard has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any PG in the NBA. Walker has at least 42 FanDuel points in each of his last three games including a massive 51 point outing against the Knicks where he put up 31 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists.
Lillard has continued to struggle this season as DFS players await the breakout game that just has not yet seem to come! Lillard does have success against Charlotte, averaging 40 FanDuel points against them over his last five outings!
I expect most players will look to pay up for guys like Russell Westbrook or John Wall and pair them with a budget friendly option like Brandon Jennings or Jameer Nelson so stacking two guys in this mid-range will give you a completely different look to your PG position with 80-90 points likely from these guys!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Bradley Beal ($7,000) All season long we have been able to target SG’s against the Knicks as they ranked 28th in DvP to the position. So far this season however, Beal has not yet been able to put up the numbers we would expect against the Knicks with only 15 and 27 FanDuel points against them in the two prior meetings.
There is obvious risk here but I expect most will look at those prior game logs and balk at paying $7k for a guy like Beal which should lead him to be signficantly under-owned. The Knicks are coming off a quadruple overtime game against Atlanta where Courtney Lee had to play 52 minutes and essentially carry the Knicks as Derrick Rose was out and Melo/KP had already exited the game due to fouls! This is a spot where I expect most will look to John Wall to get their Wizards exposure so by pivoting to Beal we have the opportunity to attack the Knicks biggest weakness with a high upside player I expect will be ignored!
Nick Young ($3,900) The Nuggets-Lakers game is going to be a fantasy goldmine tonight, with a combined 226 team total which is the highest on the slate. Both the Lakers and Nuggets see massive pace increases and are expected to score 4-7 points more than their season averages, so needless to say we want exposure here!
The Lakers back-court is always tough to navigate and with D’Angelo Russell cleared to return, but questionable to play, it makes the rotations even harder to sort through. I expect Russell if he plays will be eased back in and Swaggy P gives us the GPP upside we are looking for at a price that I feel he can easily pay off.
In the last outing between these two teams, Young played 31 minutes, scored 22 points and put up 30.9 FanDuel points which is nearly 8x value at this price point. Young has played at least 26 minutes in each of his last seven games and with that much guaranteed run against a Denver team that is 29th in DvP to opposing SG’s, we have massive potential for profit!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) Heading back to the $8k price range that I expect will be mostly ignored, I love the idea of targeting Carmelo Anthony who has put up 24+ shot attempts in three straight games including an absurd OT game against Atlanta where he was simply trying to will the Knicks to victory!
The Knicks and Wizards just squared off a few games ago and Melo was able to drop 34 points, 10 rebounds and 50 FanDuel points in that contest! From a simple game theory perspective, if I can get 50 points out of Melo who is priced well below the other studs on this slate and those studs all land in the 50-60 point range, I will have a massive advantage over the rest of the field!
Danillo Gallinari ($7,000) The Nuggets are one of my favorite teams to target on this slate as they not only see a huge pace/point increase against the Lakers, but with Nikola Jokic out, the usage bump to the remaining players drives significant profit potential!
Gallo has put up 39 FanDuel points per game over his last two contests and we are seeing a more aggressive offensive approach with Jokic off the floor as he has double-digit free throw attempts in each of his last two games. Gallinari put up 30 FanDuel points against the Lakers team the last time they met and I expect that to be his absolute floor with Jokic on the sidelines tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,600) From a GPP perspective, I love the idea of targeting KP who has seen his price fall to the mid $6k range due to his slow return from injury but Porzingis has now played 30+ minutes in each of his last two games and gets to take on a Washington team ranked 25th in DvP to opposing PF’s.
Porzingis should be one of the “fresher” bodies on the floor since he only played 30 minutes on Sunday and with Derrick Rose likely out, we can expect players like Melo and KP to see a significant usage bump!
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Kenneth Faried ($6,600) So let’s break this down – Jokic is out, the Nuggets see a huge pace increase tonight and they get to face a Lakers interior that will be without Julius Randle….fire up Faried tonight!
Faried is coming off a 47.6 FanDuel point performance against the Suns and should be able to feast again tonight at an incredibly reasonable price point. The last time these two teams met, Faried put up 32.4 FD points and that was with Jokic on the floor – I expect Faried to flirt with 40+ tonight and will be one of my core plays on this slate!
Ivica Zubac ($3,900) One of my absolute favorite value plays on this slate is the Lakers young big man who continues to see major run for the Lakers with Julius Randle off the floor. In his last two games, Zubac has played 27 minutes a night and has back to back double-doubles while racking up 29 FanDuel points per game.
At this price point, to get 7x value from a guy who is playing close to 30 minutes and is in the highest total game of the evening is an absolute lock for me and makes for a great GPP target!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking news and roster updates!