Eastern Conference: Eight teams fighting for two playoff spots

For most of this season, the Eastern Conference has basically been a jumbled mess between the top three (Cavaliers, Raptors, Celtics in some order) and the Brooklyn Nets. Lately, though, three teams (Wizards, Hawks, Pacers) from that jumbled mess have separated from the others, and the Wizards have invaded three top three — all of which leaves eight teams to battle it out for the final two playoff spots down the stretch of the season.

The degree to which those eight teams are actually competing for a spot varies, of course, but as of this writing, they are all within seven games of each other in the loss column. Let’s take a look at what each of those teams has done so far, what kind of schedule they’ll face the rest of the way, and what chance they stand of making the postseason according to various predictive models.

Note: All figures current as of Thursday.

Chicago Bulls (7th)

Record: 26-27 Remaining SOS: 0.491

O-Rtg: 104.5 D-Rtg: 105.0 Net-Rtg: -0.5

538: 72% ESPN BPI: 68.6% BBALL-REF: 65.9%

It was unthinkable nearly a month ago –when the Bulls were seemingly spiraling and the Rajon Rondo situation looked to be untenable — that Chicago would have the best chance of these eight teams to stick in the playoffs, but here we are. They’re the only team that any of the models gives a better than 60 percent chance of playing in the postseason, and with a 1.5-game lead on the ninth seed, that actually makes a decent amount of sense.

Read More: Jeff Teague is feeling at home

The Bulls have the best player of any team in this group in Jimmy Butler, which gives them a leg up on the competition. Another thing they have working in their favor: an incredibly easy final month of the season. The Bulls start April by hosting the Hawks but then finish out with a Pelicans-Knicks-76ers-Nets-Magic-Nets stretch. The combined winning percentage of those teams as of this writing is 0.307, which is the equivalent of a 25-win team.

Detroit Pistons (8th)

Record: 25-28 Remaining SOS: 0.491

O-Rtg: 104.0 D-Rtg: 105.0 Net-Rtg: -1.0

538: 45% ESPN BPI: 51.1% BBALL-REF: 51.5%

BPI and Basketball-Reference give the Pistons a better than 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, but FiveThirtyEight’s system is less optimistic about their chances. Detroit has the misfortune of squaring off with the Spurs and Raptors in its next two games, but the Pistons are even more unlucky that their April schedule includes the Raptors, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Wizards, all of whom will presumably still be jockeying for playoff positioning at that point.

The Pistons do have a six-game stretch in late March that features five games against this group of teams (Bulls-Magic-Knicks-Heat-Nets-Bucks), and if they can manage well in that span, that might give them a leg up.

Charlotte Hornets (9th)

Record: 24-28 (0.5) Remaining SOS: 0.494

O-Rtg: 105.6 D-Rtg: 104.9 Net-Rtg: 0.7

538: 52% ESPN BPI: 55.2% BBALL-REF: 58.6%

Charlotte started the season 19-14 but is just 5-14 since that point. Still, the Hornets are the only team in this group of eight that currently sports a positive point differential — an indicator that they might be a stronger squad than their record currently suggests.

It’s notable that FiveThirtyEight, ESPN.com, and Basketball-Reference all see their chances of making the playoffs being better than those of the Pistons, who sit a half-game ahead and in control of the No. 8 seed on Thursday afternoon. A six-game post-All-Star road trip that takes the Hornets from Detroit to Sacramento to Los Angeles to Phoenix to Denver in the span of 11 days might end up deciding the fate of their season. A strong performance on that trip will keep them in the mix for one of the two available spots, but a stumble could knock them too far down the ladder.

Milwaukee Bucks (10th)

Record: 23-30 (2.0) Remaining SOS: 0.493

O-Rtg: 106.9 D-Rtg: 106.5 Net-Rtg: 0.4

538: 18% ESPN BPI: 28.6% BBALL-REF: 22.1%

With Khris Middleton returning on Wednesday night, we were all set to have this section be about how the Bucks are a better team than their numbers indicate and that their chances of making the playoffs are higher than they initially appear. Then came the crushing news Thursday afternoon that Jabari Parker tore his left ACL for the second time in three seasons, and all of that was thrown out the window.

Given that he’s coming back from tearing his hamstring completely off the bone, it will likely take Middleton a while before he’s back to full health; he played 15 minutes in Wednesday’s loss to Miami and went just 2-of-5 from the field. Without Middleton at full strength, it will be interesting to see whether Jason Kidd pivots to playing Greg Monroe and John Henson alongside each other more often, leaning on Michael Beasley and Mirza Teletovic for more minutes next to Giannis Antetokoumpo, or working Thon Maker more heavily into the mix.

None of those strategies seems likely to bump Milwaukee’s playoff chances very far beyond where they stand right now.

Miami Heat (11th)

Record: 22-29 (2.0) Remaining SOS: 0.491

O-Rtg: 103.0 D-Rtg: 103.8 Net-Rtg: -0.8

538: 33% ESPN BPI: 7.0% BBALL-REF: 19.8%

The Heat winning 12 games in a row after starting the season 10-29 is the most improbable NBA story in recent memory. It’s the worst record a team has ever had that deep into the season before embarking on a 10-plus game winning streak. The streak is so strange that it appears to have confused the projection models, which are incredibly divided on Miami’s chances of using it as a springboard for a playoff berth.

The 26 percent range in their playoff chances (7 percent via BPI, 33 percent via FiveThirtyEight) is the largest of any of the eight contenders here and it’s not even close. The next-largest differential is the Bucks, who have an 18 percent chance according to FiveThirtyEight and a 28.6 percent chance according to BPI.

Miami’s performance in its remaining games before the All-Star break could determine whether Pat Riley keeps the band together for the rest of the season and makes a run at one of these two spots, or turns it in and tries to tank out the season for a higher draft pick.

New York Knicks (12th)

Record: 22-32 (3.5) Remaining SOS: 0.506

O-Rtg: 104.9 D-Rtg: 108.3 Net-Rtg: -3.4

538: 3% ESPN BPI: 2.1% BBALL-REF: 1.0%

Everything is totally fine in New York right now. The Knicks are clearly on the right track.

Orlando Magic (13th)

Record: 20-34 (5.5) Remaining SOS: 0.486

O-Rtg: 100.8 D-Rtg: 107.3 Net-Rtg: -6.5

538: <1% ESPN BPI: < 0.1% BBALL-REF: 0.1%

Orlando’s offseason suggested an attempt to build a strong defensive identity: the Magic hired one of the NBA’s best defensive coaches in Frank Vogel, traded for one of its best interior defenders in Serge Ibaka, and signed another in Bismack Biyombo. The results have not been what the team envisioned; they’re 22nd in defensive efficiency and there’s basically no heavily-used combination of players that has produced better than average defensive numbers. Add to that the spacing crunch generated by having several non-shooters on the roster and moving Aaron Gordon to the wing and it’s not exactly surprising that the Magic have struggled.

They’re currently in the playoff race in name only and are seemingly exploring trades for half the roster. Getting what they can for Ibaka before he leaves in free agency makes sense. Figuring out a way to pawn Jeff Green off on yet another team would be a nice move. Deciding whether or not Elfrid Payton is the point guard of the future ASAP should be a priority. Moving Gordon back to his natural spot at the 4 should as well. Bottoming out for yet another lottery pick after attempting to make a leap up in the standings would be disappointing, but that’s the only realistic path forward from here.

Next: The secret to Kyle Lowry's success around the rim

Philadelphia 76ers (14th)

Record: 18-34 (7.5) Remaining SOS: 0.493

O-Rtg: 99.3 D-Rtg: 106.0 Net-Rtg: -6.7

538: < 1% ESPN BPI: < 0.1% BBALL-REF: 0.0%

The Sixers aren’t making the playoffs this year, but it seemed wrong to lump them in with the Nets rather than this group. (They’re nine games ahead of Brooklyn and 7.5 back of Chicago.) Joel Embiid and crew will crash the dance one day in the future, though.