Padres: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Preview
By Bill Pivetz
AL East: BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR
NL East: ATL, NYM, PHI, MIA, WAS
AL Central: KC, CWS, DET, CLE, MIN
NL Central: STL, PIT, CHC, MIL, CIN
AL West: SEA, LAA, TEX, OAK, HOU
The Padres added depth on the bench and the starting pitching in the offseason. They have a lot of young talent with fantasy sleeper potential in 2017.
The San Diego Padres are a team that you want to see succeed. Even if they play against your favorite team, you’re rooting for them. They are the little engine that is trying. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out so far. The Padres do not have many stars on the team that fantasy owners
The Padres do not have many stars on the team that fantasy owners want to invest in. And if their current players become stars, they are usually traded for young prospects and we start the whole cycle over again.
Looking at their Roster Resource page, there were 12 players listed as free agents, one of the higher totals. They were able to bring five of them back, but they lost a lot of bench depth. Of the players they lost, outfielder Jon Jay and starting pitcher Tyson Ross were among the biggest blows to the team.
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The Padres’ main focus this offseason looked to be their bench and starting pitching. The team signed three starting pitchers, traded for a backup catcher and selected an infielder from the Rule 5 Draft.
The pitchers all have question marks around them, making them risky picks in most leagues.
Most of their starting players will be starting for the first time. Only their first baseman, third baseman, and left fielder played over 100 games last season. That is a lot of inexperience playing at once.
PetCo Park dropped significantly in home run park factors from 2015 to 2016. It wasn’t the park’s fault because the dimensions didn’t change. It was mostly the lack of production from the offense. Here’s hoping that the 2017 roster can post more than 177 home runs and a .235 average.
I only have three Padres ranked in my top 300. The rest of their players will either be fliers or not drafted at all.
The most recent addition to the Padres rotation is veteran Jered Weaver. He will join Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard, Trevor Cahill, and Christian Friedrich.
There is no one on that list you want to have on your team. Weaver had a 5.06 ERA in 31 starts. Friedrich had a 4.80 ERA in 24 games. Richard posted decent numbers in limited appearances. Chacin had a similar ERA in his time with Atlanta and Los Angeles.
Cahill had the best numbers of the five but was not a starting pitcher last season. In 50 games with the Chicago Cubs, he posted a 2.74 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. He hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2012. Until you see what he does in long outings, I would avoid him.
If there is a Padres pitcher you want, you may want to wait for Colin Rea next season. Rea underwent Tommy John surgery in November and will be out for the season.
The Padres bullpen may be the most interesting position this season.
Brandon Maurer took over the closer role in the second half when the team traded Fernando Rodney. He posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, and 22-5 strikeout to walk ratio along with 12 saves in 29.0 innings. Maurer comes in at No. 25 among closers.
The other names to take note of are Brad Hand and Kevin Quackenbush.
Hand had a 2.92 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 89.1 innings. Quackenbush posted a 3.92 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 59.2 innings. Both pitchers have some closer experience and could fill in if Maurer struggles in the ninth inning.
Don’t forget about Carter Capps, either. He will be ready to pitch by June.
The Padres infield will look very different in 2017 and it starts behind the plate.
The team traded catcher Derek Norris to Washington and will go with Austin Hedges. He played in just eight games last season, hitting .125.
The real value comes from the first baseman Wil Myers. After two average seasons in Tampa Bay and one with the Padres, he finally showed what the hype was about last year. Myers hit 28 home runs, 94 RBI, and .259 in 157 games. He also stole 28 bases in 34 attempts. I’m surprised he was able to drive in 94 runs home considering the team had a .299 OBP.
With very little to lose this season, I expect Myers to steal more and continue with the power. He said it himself that he is gunning for 30 HR/30 SB. If he can, Myers will be a top-five first baseman. He is No. 9 for now.
Ryan Schimpf posted great power numbers but it was paired with a .217 average. With the second base pool pretty deep, Schimpf will have to improve greatly for him to be worth drafting.
Yangervis Solarte looked good after finally getting a chance to start in San Diego. He hit .286 with 15 homers and 71 RBI. He is my No. 26 third baseman with the potential to move up with a good first half. Brad Kelly calls him a sleeper for this season.
The shortstop is Luis Sardinas. He hit .287/.353/.417 in 120 plate appearances last season. He’s a dynasty league option only.
The Padres outfield is full of upside picks.
The three starters are slated to be Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe, and Manuel Margot.
Jankowski has the most experience, given that he played in 131 games. He hit .245 with 30 steals. He doesn’t provide much else for fantasy owners. Jankowski is the perfect example of drafting speed late. Just don’t expect much else.
I wrote about Renfroe in December. In 11 games, he hit four home runs, 14 RBI, .371. Over a full season, that averages to 59 home runs and 206 RBI. Obviously, that is unlikely but he could hit 20 home runs and 70 RBI this season. He is my No. 72 outfielder.
Kelly recently wrote about Margot being a great value pick here. He played in just 10 games, so I’m more of a wait-and-see mode with Margot.
The Padres are a team of potential and upside, but it’s tough to find anything for this season.
The starting pitchers are five giant question marks. I like Maurer as a third closer in standard leagues. Myers is the only starting option and Solarte is a bench or utility option. The outfield has power and speed worth drafting late.
It’s bleak but there could be some surprises.