Rockies: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Preview
By Bill Pivetz
AL East: BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR
NL East: ATL, NYM, PHI, MIA, WAS
AL Central: KC, CWS, DET, CLE, MIN
NL Central: STL, PIT, CHC, MIL, CIN
AL West: SEA, LAA, TEX, OAK, HOU
Th Rockies added two new members to the bullpen and a first baseman. With the power boost Coors Field gives, there will be a lot of hitters to own.
The final team preview starts now.
The Colorado Rockies are an interesting team. The team struggled in the previous five seasons, finishing either fourth or fifth in the NL West. They won 75 games for the first time since 2010. While they won’t win the division this season, the team will put up a lot of numbers.
The Rockies lost a few important pieces this offseason. Nick Hundley signed to be a backup in San Francisco. Jorge De La Rosa is with Arizona and Boone Logan bolsters Cleveland’s bullpen. They didn’t add anyone to their rotation or behind the plate, so the Rockies are rolling with who they currently have rostered.
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The Rockies fantasy value comes from their offense. The starting pitchers have a disadvantage pitching at Coors Field for half of the season.
Seven of the eight offensives starters hit at least 10 home runs. They get on base and score runs, but they don’t run often.
Only two players stole more than 10 bases. I’m not worried. They provide more than enough power to offset the lack of speed.
As a result of the Coors Effect, only one starter posted an ERA less than 3.60. I only have one Rockies pitcher ranked inside my top 300, so you can see my faith in the rotation this season.
Similarly, the Rockies bullpen suffered the same fate. The majority of relievers had an ERA over 4.00. However, the incumbent closer pitched well enough last season to earned the job for 2017.
To give specifics, Coors Field ranked third in home runs, first in hits, first in runs, second in doubles and eighth in triples. So, even opposing batters should have success in Colorado. If you play daily fantasy or stream hitters, take a look at the matchups.
I have 10 Rockies players ranked in my top 300. Eight of the 10 are hitters, so you can clearly see where the value for this team is.
As I said in the introduction, the Rockies rotation was and will be victims of inflated stats.
Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, and Jeff Hoffman will take the mound for Colorado. Gray is the only pitcher I ranked, No. 49 starter.
He made 29 starts and posted a 4.61 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, and 10-10 record. He allowed 153 hits in just 168 innings. Only 18 of them were home runs, but he allowed too many hitters to reach base and that is not a formula for success. Gray did have a 9.9 K/9, so that’s where most of his value comes from. As a fifth starter, he’ll help you in some areas.
Bettis, Anderson, and Chatwood don’t provide much else. They have low strikeout rates and pitching in Coors Field does them no favors. Hoffman pitched in just eight games but did not look good in those outings.
If only the starting pitching market was stronger, the Rockies could have boosted their rotation mightily.
The Rockies bullpen is stacked with talent. The current closer, Adam Ottavino shined at the end of the season. Jake McGee and Jason Motte are solid options in relief. The front office just signed Greg Holland, who did not pitch last season.
I like Ottavino enough to draft him as a No. 3 closer in standard leagues. He posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.926 WHIP with 7 saves in 27 innings. He also had an 11.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Ottavino was clearly better than any other option they had. He is my No. 24 closer, only because the ratio stats are likely to rise.
McGee and Motte are good handcuffs to have in case a switch is made. I want to see how Holland pitches in Spring Training, but don’t count him out either. He was dominant for the Kansas City Royals just a couple of years ago. He may lose some speed, but the talent is still there.
There is a lot of fantasy value in this infield. Three of them rank in the top five of their respective positions. Their starting first baseman doesn’t have eligibility there yet and the catcher is No. 15.
Speaking of catcher, Tom Murphy is gaining ground in the rankings. In 21 games last season, Murphy hit .273 with five home runs and 13 RBI. In a full season, he can hit 15 to 18 homers with 60 RBI. He hit and fielded better than Tony Wolters last year.
Despite having more than enough outfielders, the Rockies made a surprising move by signing Ian Desmond. He spent 2016 with the Texas Rangers in the outfield. But, Desmond will not be playing outfield. He will be the first baseman. You will have to wait until the 11th game to slot Desmond in that spot. I will still draft him in Round 6.
Second baseman DJ LeMahieu could not be stopped. He hit .348/.416/.495 with 11 homers, 66 RBI, and 11 steals. He had 80 strikeouts and 66 walks. If he can continue to get on base and increase the power, he may move into the top five or six. He is my No. 6 second baseman currently.
What more can I say about third baseman Nolan Arenado? He is ranked first among third basemen from many sources. I wrote about him being the top pick back in October. He hit 41 home runs, 133 RBI, and .294. He also had a .362 OBP. You’ll be hard pressed to find a third baseman doing anything close to that.
Shortstop Trevor Story put up an exciting first week of the season. Unfortunately, he only played 97 games. He was able to hit 27 homers, 72 RBI, and .272. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. For now, he’s my ninth-ranked shortstop.
The Rockies have a lot of outfielders on their roster. The starters are Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and David Dahl. Alexi Amarista and Gerardo Parra are also on the bench.
Blackmon hit .324 with 29 home runs, 82 RBI, and 17 steals. He could get 30/90/20 next season. If so, he could be the No. 3 outfielder. He’s No. 4, which isn’t much of a difference. He will still be a second round pick. My colleague Brad Kelly thinks he should be drafted in the first round. It depends on the picks before you and your roster construction.
Gonzalez hit .298 with 25 homers and 100 RBI. He is my No. 8 outfielder for the power and contact. Like I said, there is little speed on this team, but they will compete for the most home runs.
Dahl is someone getting a lot of build leading up to Opening Day. Kelly lists him as a breakout candidate and it’s not hard to see why. In 63 games, he hit .315 with seven home runs, 24 RBI, and five steals. As the No. 6 batter behind the power guys, Dahl will get plenty of opportunities to get on base and drive in runs.
There have been plenty of trade rumors surrounding the Rockies outfield. If Blackmon or Gonzalez are traded, their value will take a bit of a hit. Hitting outside of Coors Field will have a big impact on their numbers. Whoever takes their place will increase their fantasy value in the process.
The Rockies players you draft, likely on offense, will contribute to your power categories. There are even a few that can help batting average or on-base percentage, too.
The starting pitchers are scary only because of the Coors Effect. The bullpen has some value, but watch for the inflated ERA compared to similar relievers.
Streaming batters isn’t a popular strategy, but it could work when they play in Colorado.
I finished the previews. I will post a final piece with links to all 30 teams for easy access to each preview. Keep a look out for my position rankings in the upcoming days.