Should we worry about Mohamed Bamba’s shooting touch?
Mohamed Bamba is surrounded by the air of potential. The Texas freshman big man entered the year high on many draft boards, and he’s spent the early part of the season supporting the idea that he might have the upside to be one of the best players in the 2018 NBA Draft. He has been an important two-way cog on what looks to be a resurgent Texas squad, averaging nearly a double-double with 10.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, and altering shots at the rim with flair at 4.1 blocks per game.
The draw of Bamba stems almost equally from what he is doing now and what his body could allow him to become. Current Bamba is a solid college defender and dive man, converting attempts at the rim at a high rate and swallowing lesser opponents up at the rim like a 6-foot-11 spider, trapping guards in a web with his arms. But even more exciting are the glimpses of skills he displays which could make him a nightmare in the NBA. His length, flexibility and the flashes of high IQ he shows could make him a potentially scheme-changing center in the way Rudy Gobert is for the Utah Jazz. And offensively, the mobility and offensive rebounding is nice, but his jumper mechanics, if developed correctly, are the real draw. “What if we gave Gobert range to the corner 3?” is a terrifying thought, and one Bamba could very well allow us to realize.
However, one aspect of Bamba’s game often flies under the radar, and it’s something that could potentially limit his ability to reach his ceiling. A core tenant of any modern NBA center’s game is finishing at the rim. Big men have to be able to set screens well and convert at a high rate when they receive pick-and-roll passes going downhill towards the rim. Having good enough touch to both power through contact and avoid the long arms of today’s best defensive centers is essential, and it’s especially important for the league’s elite pick-and-roll finishers, which is Bamba’s most likely outcome, at least to start.
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DeAndre Jordan has consistently converted around 70 percent within three feet of the rim throughout his prime. Same with Rudy Gobert. Clint Capela is shooting 72 percent on roll man opportunities this year. This skill is a must to be an effective offensive player, if you don’t have a reliable post or spot-up game, which Bamba lacks currently.
A cursory glance at the numbers, that bears out for Bamba, too. He’s shooting 76.9 percent at the rim, per Hoop-Math, and his length has been his primary weapon for feasting against smaller non-conference opponents to date. Most of Bamba’s poor true shooting percentage (51.5 percent) can be traced to hitting just 3-of-17 threes thus far, combined with 57.9 percent shooting at the line.
But watching him on film, Bamba appears to struggle a little more than you would expect. Many of his attempts around the rim are relatively uncontested dunks, which is expected at this level — Bamba’s length and mobility help him create clear paths to the rim, and this is a boon for his numbers around the rim. However, when you take him out of these high-percentage situations, some concern arises. Even a foot further from the basket, Bamba has more issues converting, and that no-man’s land between three to ten feet from the basket gives him significant issues, contributing to his lower true shooting percentage. Give him contact or put him in a post touch, and Bamba struggles to get full extension on jump hooks and deal with any contact on his release.
As of right now, Bamba struggles most with contact in these situations, and he lacks the touch to really be able to finesse his way around his opponents. Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter were both able to effectively contest his shots in the Duke game, and he was effectively walled out of the paint by Moritz Wagner of Michigan, who, while a likely NBA prospect, isn’t a high-level defender. Even Tennessee State gave him problems, which raises significant red flags.
Bamba has the potential to be a matchup nightmare in the NBA, thanks to the flashes he shows as a rim-protector who could eventually become an effective 3-point shooter with continued work on his mechanics. But to get there, he likely needs to first establish a baseline of play within a more traditional role. Part of that role will likely feature finishing pick-and-rolls, and if Bamba can’t convert consistently against length, it will be hard to give him the leash to flesh out his perimeter game because he’ll be ineffective offensively. That would put the onus on his defense to carry him early on, and while his numbers and highlights are nice, he’s not consistent enough to survive on defense alone.
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Bamba is in the conversation for a top-five pick because he has incredible potential, if all of his skills are maximized. But to get there, he first has to find footing in the NBA in some capacity. Without even average touch around the rim, that’s going to be very difficult for him to pull off, and could put him into John Henson territory.
Before we fully buy in to Bamba’s stock, it’s worth first seeing if he can improve as a finisher as the season progresses. Without that, it’s going to be very hard to bank on that ceiling outcome coming to fruition.