MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday June 18
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
We are back! After my first weekend off from DFS and Picks and Pivots since baseball started in April, I am ready to jump back in and cover this slate. My wife, kids and I went to Cooperstown for the weekend and got to spend time unplugged from the world and wandering the Baseball Hall of Fame which is a must visit for any baseball fan in my opinion. I had not been there in at least 10 years and going back now, especially with the DFS/statistics mindset I have these days was a totally different lens to see and appreciate some of the numbers these all time greats put up. If you get the chance, make it a point to visit – it was simply awesome.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
Looking over this slate there are some clear elite arms at the top with some generally underwhelming arms across the mid-tier and punt plays which at first glance is leading me towards paying up at pitcher today.
Trevor Bauer ($23.8K) may not be the highest priced arm on FantasyDraft but it is tough to argue that he is not the best arm on today’s slate with a home match-up against the White Sox. Over the last month there is not a single pitcher in baseball with a higher strikeout percentage that Bauer as his 37.8% K rate over the last 30 days is best in baseball and he steps to the mound tonight at home, coming off four straight games with double-digit punch outs. Bauer will be taking on the same White Sox team he just faced, striking out 12 over 7.2 innings of work and is installed as a massive -240 favorite. In my mind Bauer is the chalk SP1 play and the core arm to build around in cash games on this Monday MLB DFS slate.
Gerrit Cole ($25K) is the arm I have the most tournament intrigue in on this slate as I fully expect everyone to take the approach of “why pay up for Cole when I can save money for Bauer who just struck out 12 White Sox in the same exact match-up.” Cole’s recent game logs don’t have nearly the shine of Bauer’s as Cole has not struck out double-digit batters in seven straight outings but let’s not simply ignore the fact that Cole has a 29.4% K rate over the last month which is 12th highest in baseball and third on this slate behind Bauer and Jacob deGrom. Cole just continues to dominate, with 30% or higher K rates in five of his last seven outings with an 11% of higher swinging strike rate in four of those five “plus” outings so the upside remains sky-high with Cole each time out.
If you step back and look at this slate you have a very clear top three in Bauer, Cole and Jacob deGrom, but with the Mets ace pitching in Coors Field, it may be tough to pay the $21K asking price. Instead I expect the majority of folks to lock in Bauer then start scrolling through the cheaper options of which frankly, not a single one really entices me. Go ahead and look – you can opt to pay down for guys like Jhoulys Chacin or Caleb Smith and hope for solid run prevention and a handful of K’s but there really is not an option in this mid-range that has the K upside to make me feel comfortable moving down past the top arms on the slate.
Instead, I think there is merit in paying up for both Bauer and Cole today and sifting through the cheaper bats as even with a game in Coors Field, it is interesting to me that we only have one team (Indians) that have an implied team total over 5.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
In the context of this slate, if you are going to pay up for pitching with BOTH Bauer and Cole tonight than it will leave you with only $6.7K per hitter on FantasyDraft which means you are going to have to go shopping in the bargain bin for hitters tonight. With a game in Coors Field, normally that would mean a full on fade but we have an interesting case of one of the worst offenses in baseball heading to the best hitter’s environment as the Mets bats take aim on LHP Tyler Anderson in Coors Field and the price points for the majority of the Amazin’s gives you the rare opportunity to stack hitters in Coors while still paying up for arms.
Tyler Anderson on the season is giving up 1.93 HR/9 at home with a 54% fly ball rate and a near 35% hard contact rate with right-handed batters having the platoon advantage against him and a .200+ ISO to show for it. Now the Mets bats have been ice-cold for weeks but after scoring 5 runs in back to back games against Arizona on Saturday/Sunday, this is really the first time the Mets have any sort of offensive momentum and the price point on these hitters is still reflecting their recent offensive woes. Amed Rosario ($5.8K) at this price point potentially leading off again would be a slam dunk play and you can easily put in the power bats like Todd Frazier ($7.4K) and Wilmer Flores ($7.3K) who both have .200+ ISO marks against LHP the since the start of the 2017 season. For all the Mets woes, their 4.9 projected run total is second highest on the slate and the price points on the top of the order allow you the rare opportunity for a cost-effective Coors stack.
The Rangers-Royals have a 9.5 game total which matches the Mets-Rockies and with 90+ degree temperatures and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out for a game between Bartolo Colon and Ian Kennedy, this could be a prime stacking spot off Coors tonight.
Kennedy on the season is surrendering a .220 ISO and 41% HC rate to left-handed batters, relying on a 91 MPH fastball nearly 60% of the time. Against that pitch type and velocity, Joey Gallo ($7.5K) has a .625 ISO, 47% HC rate, a 96 MPH EV and a whopping 354 average distance traveled on balls in play – this is an ideal spot to go home run hunting with Gallo tonight who should have no trouble squaring up a pitcher with only a 20% K rate on the season. Keep an eye on the line-up here tonight for Texas as catcher Robinson Chirinos left Sunday’s game with an injury which could mean a punt catching opportunity for Jose Trevino ($4.7K) who went 2-8 with 3 RBI’s in his first major league action this past weekend versus Colorado.
The Royals get to face off with Big Sexy, Bartolo Colon, a pitcher who is giving up a .289 ISO to RHB this season and a .210 ISO to LHB in 2018 which means basically, if you play for the Royals tonight then you are in play. The Royals come into this game a bit banged up as Whit Merrifield left the game on Sunday with an injury after fouling a ball off his knee and Jorge Soler is on the D.L. which means we could get some funky line-up construction for the Royals. Outside of Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez this is a line-up of ugly names to roster which may mean this stack goes under-owned and honestly, I could see people using Colon as an SP2 option as a result of the line-up being basically two batters you are afraid of. The entire Royals outfield of Hunter Dozier, Alex Gordon and Paulo Orlando will cost you no more than $5.8K per batter and can be easily stacked around a guy like Mike Moustakas ($7.8K) who has a team high .257 ISO against RHP this season.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Gerrit Cole ($25K)
SP: Trevor Bauer ($23.8K)
IF: Todd Frazier ($7.3K)
IF: Amed Rosario ($5.8K)
IF: Mike Moustakas ($7.8K)
OF: Hunter Dozier ($5.8K)
OF: Alex Gordon ($5.8K)
OF: Paulo Orlando ($4.7K)
UTIL: Joey Gallo ($7.5K)
UTIL: Jason Heyward ($6.5K)
Slate Overview: Ignore the “names” above and simply look at this slate in this context – what if I told you that you could roster the two best and most expensive pitching options AND stack up the bats from the teams with the 2nd and 3rd highest totals on the slate. Yes people – the Mets and Royals have the 2nd and 3rd highest totals on this MLB DFS slate – GET EXCITED. I know the names are ugly but you are stacking against Tyler Anderson in Coors and Bartolo Colon in 90+ degree temperatures with 15 MPH winds blowing out. Also it is Jason Heyward bobblehead night and narratives are literally never wrong – home run guaranteed. Let’s do it!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!