MLB DFS Bargain Bin-Friday, June 22nd Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Thursday, June 21st Evening Slates

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Thursday’s suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

I’ll get the bad news out of the way first — pitching was an abject disaster Thursday. My main suggestion, Carlos Martinez, was priced down, which did make him worthy of consideration as a tournament play. Despite his current struggles, Martinez has proven time and time again that he can be an elite arm when he’s on, but that was far from the case against a Brewers squad he’d already dominated twice this season. C-Mart may have only walked two batters, but he was all over the place with his control, uncorking a pair of wild pitches in the process and throwing 92 pitches over four innings. Unfortunately, alternate suggestion Chad Kuhl went off the rails as well, getting touched up for a whopping eight earned runs by the D-Backs overall, including a pair of homers, in just two innings.

Thankfully, things were a bit brighter on the hitting side. While catcher suggestion Tucker Barnhart came up empty, suggested Twitter first base pivot Kendrys Morales — who I threw out as one of two alternatives to Jose Abreu after his game was rained out — delivered a double, solo home run and a walk. Joe Panik came through with a pair of two-baggers himself at second base, while teammate Pablo Sandoval contributed a hit and a run. The Angels’ Andrelton Simmons did the same in his game, and Starling Marte was one of the few bright spots on the night for the Pirates with an RBI double, a walk and two runs. Teammate Josh Bell, who’d been my second Twitter pivot at first base, contributed a single in four at-bats.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Morales and Marte swing hot bats– Joe Panik wasn’t bad either, but the two sluggers combined for three extra-base hits, including Morales’ homer.

MLB DFS Biggest Dud(s):

Both pitchers get blown up – Martinez and Kuhl gave up a combined 15 runs (13 earned) in a pair of nightmarish performances.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, June 22nd Evening Slates

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
• This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Friday!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, June 22nd Evening Slates

Three Bargain Pitching Spots to Consider:

Steven Wright, BOS vs. SEA- Yahoo ($37)/ FanDuel ($7,000)/ DraftKings ($8,500)/ FantasyDraft ($15,900)

Wright stymied the Mariners with his knuckler over seven innings last Saturday night, and he’s produced three consecutive quality starts overall. He’s been mostly brilliant at Fenway, as evidenced by a .159 BAA, 1.89 ERA and .245 wOBA over 19 home innings. Wright is allowing just a 16.7 percent hard contact at Fenway as well, and a .225 wOBA and 23.9 percent strikeout rate on his trademark knuckler overall. The Mariners have also been much less potent against righties away from Safeco Field as well, posting a paltry .289 wOBA, .125 ISO and 81 wRC+ against that handedness on the road over the last month, along with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

Yahoo-only special:

Chris Bassitt, OAK at CWS- Yahoo ($25) *Note: Game not included on FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft

Bassitt is in play at a bargain price for Yahoo GPPs, considering he’ll face a White Sox team that’s struck out at an MLB-high 28.6 percent versus right-handed pitching at home over the last month, while also posting a -9.2 wRAA and .287 wOBA. They’re also sporting an anemic 27.4 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness, boosting Bassitt’s case further. The right-hander is allowing just a .268 wOBA over his first two starts as well, and he could be in for some run support Friday considering some of the troubles opposing pitcher Lucas Giolito has encountered at home.

Yahoo/DraftKings/FantasyDraft special:

Junior Guerra, MIL vs. STL- Yahoo ($32)/ DraftKings ($8,200)/ FantasyDraft ($15,800)

Guerra is worthy of consideration as well on the above sites, factoring in that the Cardinals have struck out at an elevated 26.9 percent rate against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month. He’s already pitched well against them on two occasions as well, as indicated by his sparkling 0.79 ERA and .205 BAA over 11.1 innings across a pair of starts against the Redbirds.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, June 22nd Evening Slates

Five Bargain Hitting Spots to Consider

Rockies vs. Marlins

Target: Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen 

Metrics to Target:

.386 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters, including .460 (15 extra-base hits) on the road/2.12 WHIP and 6.87 xFIP allowed to right-handed hitters on the road/32.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters overall.

Rockies Bargain Hitters to Consider: 

Chris Iannetta– Yahoo ($16)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($3,700)/FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Noel Cuevas– Yahoo ($8)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft special:

Tom Murphy– Yahoo ($9)/FanDuel ($3,000)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Yahoo-only special:

DJ LeMahieu– Yahoo ($17)

Marlins at Rockies

Target: Rockies starter Jon Gray and Rockies bullpen

Metrics to Target: 

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Gray: .346 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters at home/.333 BAA and .372 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters at home/ 29.0 percent line drive rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home.

Rockies bullpen: MLB-high 10.80 ERA and .480 wOBA (including 24 extra-base hits) allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month/23.3 percent line drive rate and 44.2 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month.

Marlins Bargain Hitters to Consider:

Derek Dietrich– Yahoo ($20)/FanDuel ($3,500)/DraftKings ($4,300)/FantasyDraft ($8,500)

Brian Anderson– Yahoo ($20)/FanDuel ($3,700)/DraftKings ($4,600)/FantasyDraft ($9,200)

Justin Bour– Yahoo ($16)/FanDuel ($3,800)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Starlin Castro-Yahoo ($14)/FanDuel ($3,600)/DraftKings ($4,100)/FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Lewis Brinson– Yahoo ($13)/FanDuel ($3,200)/DraftKings ($3,300)/FantasyDraft ($6,700)

JT Riddle– Yahoo ($10)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($3,400)/FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Cameron Maybin– Yahoo ($10)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($3,000)/FantasyDraft ($6,000)

Miguel Rojas– Yahoo ($8)/FanDuel ($3,200)/DraftKings ($3,400)/FantasyDraft ($6,900)

Dodgers at Mets

Target: Mets starter Zack Wheeler and Mets bullpen

Metrics to Target:

Wheeler: .376 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters at home/2.25 HR/9 and 5.37 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters at home/ 46.2 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home.

Mets bullpen: 7.36 ERA, .425 wOBA, 31.1 percent line drive rate and 35.6 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month.

Dodgers Bargain Hitters to Consider: 

Cody Bellinger– Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,600)/ DraftKings ($4,400)/ FantasyDraft ($7,100)

Joc Pederson– Yahoo ($17)/FanDuel ($2,400)/DraftKings ($4,400)/FantasyDraft ($8,300)

Yasmani Grandal– Yahoo ($11)/FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Twins vs. Rangers

Target: Rangers starter Mike Minor

Metrics to Target:

.362 wOBA (including 11 homers) allowed to right-handed hitters, including .417 on the road/44.6 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters overall.

Twins Bargain Hitters to Consider: 

Brian Dozier– Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Ehire Adrianza– Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,300)/DraftKings ($3,100)/FantasyDraft ($5,500)

Ryan LaMarre– Yahoo ($7)/FanDuel ($2,100)/DraftKings ($2,600)/FantasyDraft ($5,000)

Mitch Garver– Yahoo ($7)/FanDuel ($2,100)/DraftKings ($2,800)/FantasyDraft ($5,600)

Braves vs. Orioles

Target: Orioles starter Alex Cobb and Orioles bullpen 

Metrics to Target:

Cobb: .373 BAA and .453 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/.350 BAA and .398 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters on the road/ 8 of 13 homers allowed this season have come on the road/ 25.8 percent line drive rate and 40.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/38.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters on the road.

Orioles bullpen: 6.12 ERA and .392 wOBA (including 15 extra-base hits) allowed to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month.

Braves Bargain Hitters to Consider: 

Nick Markakis –Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,200)

Tyler Flowers– Yahoo ($18)/FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)

Johan Camargo– Yahoo ($18)/FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Charlie Culberson– Yahoo ($16)/FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($5,500)

Kurt Suzuki (if Flowers not in lineup)- Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,900)

Dansby Swanson-Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,900)

Yahoo/FanDuel special:

Ender Inciarte– Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($3,000)

Yahoo-only special:

Ozzie Albies– ($15)

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across all your favorite sites and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!