NBA Season Preview 2018-19: Will change be good for the Rockets?

After making significant changes to the roster in the offseason, do the new-look Houston Rockets have what it takes to contend for a championship?

In recent history, Rockets GM Daryl Morey has brought back the majority of the roster from one season to another just once, which many will remember as the disaster that was the 2015-16 campaign. After making the Western Conference Finals in 2014-15, Morey added a couple of rookies in Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell before finally trading for Ty Lawson..

Of course, that trade (and poor team chemistry) blew up in Morey’s face, ultimately leading to the disappointing 41-41 season and first round playoff exit. Fast forward to today and we are approaching another season in which the Rockets are coming off a Western Conference Finals appearance. Only this time, there are plenty of changes to go around on the roster.

The mainstays are still on the team, as expected. The team’s “big three” of  James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela are back for the long-haul, with Paul and Capela signing long-term extensions this summer. Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green and Nene all return as complementary pieces to round out a similar rotation for Mike D’Antoni.

However, a good portion of the team’s defensive heart and soul departed in free agency, with Trevor Ariza joining the Phoenix Suns and Luc Mbah a Moute returning to the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Rockets responded by adding veteran wing James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony before trading Ryan Anderson and second-round pick De’Anthony Melton to those same Suns for Brandon Knight and Marquese Chriss.

Change can sometimes be a very good thing, opening up new opportunities to seize. For the Rockets, the success of these offseason changes will become apparent in the playoffs and on the defensive end, where the team has a lot of work to do to be as successful as they were last season.

Gone are long, switchable wing defenders in Ariza and Mbah a Moute, replaced by a similar player in Ennis but a defensive liability in Anthony. With assistant coach (and “defensive coordinator”) Jeff Bzdelik retiring in the offseason, the Rockets face changes on all levels at the defensive end.

The Rockets implemented a switch-everything scheme last season that brought them tremendous success and saw them post the sixth-best defense in the league (per Cleaning The Glass). Having defenders such as Ariza, Mbah a Moute and Tucker on the wings allowed Houston to seamlessly switch, which was also bolstered by Capela, one of the few centers in the league that can competently hang with guards on the perimeter.

Simply inserting Ennis into Ariza’s starting spot would allow Houston to continue thriving in such a scheme. Ennis isn’t the defender Ariza is, but he has the length and versatility to switch and has graded out as a positive defender in recent seasons. Ennis slots in perfectly with the Rockets as a low-end 3-and-D wing and his signing (for the veteran’s minimum) could prove to be one of the best in the offseason, as Morey received praise for signing Mbah a Moute to the same contract last summer.

The most significant addition to the roster is sure to be Anthony, who struggled fitting into a complementary role with the Oklahoma City Thunder last season while continuing to be a complete defensive liability. Last season, Anthony posted a minus-1.25 Defensive Real Plus-Minus, continuously being a primary attacking point for opposing offenses.

As a result of his defensive limitations, Anthony is best served coming off the bench, where he won’t be exposed or attacked as much by backups and can have a larger role offensively. To his credit, Anthony seems much more open to coming off the bench this season, expressing the fact that “if that time comes, we’ll have that conversation. Whatever I have to do to help this team win a championship.”

There are ways that Anthony can help the Rockets this season, despite his maligned reputation and lack of success in recent seasons. While Anthony won’t magically turn into a positive defender this season, there is reason to believe a switching defensive scheme plays to his abilities more than a traditional pick-and-roll defensive scheme. Anthony struggled to continuously get through or over screens last season, automatically putting his teammates in a precarious defensive position.

With Houston, Anthony can prepare to switch everything and not expend as much energy getting around screens. The main concern is when Anthony is targeted on the perimeter, which the Rockets did just that throughout their match-ups against the Thunder last season. In a game between the two teams in March, Anthony was routinely put into mismatches on the perimeter, and the Rockets took advantage.

However, perhaps that concern is being overblown. While Houston focuses on getting mismatches and scoring in isolation, the majority of teams don’t execute such an offensive gameplan, instead focusing on ball movement and drawn up plays to score.

Come playoff time, teams will look to hunt Anthony down defensively and attack him in whatever set they are running. During the regular season? Anthony’s defense won’t be as exposed with teams not game planning for specific teams on a game-to-game basis and especially if Anthony is coming off the bench. The thunder posted a top ten defense with Anthony last season (and would have had close to a top five defense if Andre Roberson didn’t get injured). With the Rockets having the scheme and personnel to combat Anthony’s limitations, Houston should once again post a near-elite defense throughout the regular season.

What isn’t being discussed enough is the potential need for Anthony’s scoring, especially come playoff time. While Houston posted an all-time great offense in the regular season, they had their fair share of struggles in the playoffs, especially in the Conference Finals. After posting a 114.8 offensive rating in the regular season, that dropped down to just 104.4 in the seven-game series against the Golden State Warriors.

While Houston’s impressive defense got all the talk during the series, it may have come down to the Rockets’ inability to score when it mattered most that prevented them from making the NBA Finals.

Of course, Anthony may not solve those issues if he is still insistent on clogging up possessions in the mid-range and struggles with his shot like he did last season with the Thunder. But with his natural scoring ability, quick release and the potential benefits from playing alongside two of the best playmaking guards in league history, Anthony can be a key offensive weapon for Houston.

In that same March game against the Rockets, Anthony posted 23 points on 8-of-18 shooting and was actually a +6 for the game as he routinely caught the Rockets off-guard with his quick release and took advantage of a mismatch with Ryan Anderson guarding him:

Anthony shot just 32.7 percent on corner 3-pointers and 37.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season and both were significant declines from the previous year. In 2016-17, the 34-year-old forward hit 43.5 percent of his corner 3s and 42.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities, shots that he should expect to have on a regular basis in Houston.

In the end, there are plenty of reasons to doubt Carmelo Anthony and his ability to positively impact the Rockets in the upcoming season. From his defensive limitations to his continued insistence on a featured offensive role, there will certainly be growing pains and areas of weakness for him and the team when he is on the floor. But to say that there are only negatives related to his addition to the team would be shortsighted, especially in the context of what the team has around him and the success they’ve had in recent seasons.

Change can be a scary thing. Whether it’s your favorite coffee shop closing down and changing your morning routine or the addition of a 10-time All-Star to your roster in the face of several key departures, change affects everyone. For this upcoming NBA season, the Houston Rockets will hope that they made the right changes (and the right amount of change) in the offseason to further propel their chances of winning a championship.