Potential is a fun thing to speculate about. In the absence of a ton of evidence, you can pretty much project whatever you want onto a young player based upon momentary glimpses of greatness, choosing to hope for the best rather than accepting the less stellar reality that is likely to come instead. That’s the fun thing about being a bad team full of young players — you can tell yourself, “Well if everyone fulfills their potential then we’re bound to contend for years to come.”
But there’s also the less great part about being a fan of a bad team full of young players: these things rarely go as planned. Projecting player growth is far from an exact science and it rarely goes on a linear, upward trajectory. Of course, it’s more fun to believe, to have hope in the future, especially when you haven’t made the playoffs in seven years. Faith isn’t a rational enterprise, after all.
The Phoenix Suns have yet to recover from the glory days of the Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire era. After an unexpected trip to the Conference Finals in 2010, Stoudemire left for New York and the team has yet to return to the playoffs since then. Now, with the hiring of Igor Kaskaroff they are on their sixth coach since the end of that season as well. Phoenix hasn’t had much stability on the court either, turning over the roster year after year in hope of finding something that will work. It hasn’t worked, but through years of losing, they have accumulated a bevy of prospects that the team hopes will finally begin to start paying dividends soon.
Since 2013, the team has selected Alex Len, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson, and Deandre Ayton in the top five along while they’ve drafted Devin Booker and T.J. Warren later in the lottery. Also, this year they were able to trade for Mikal Bridges’ draft rights as well. It’d be foolhardy to expect all, or even a majority of these players to turn into the players they were hoped to be when drafted, but there’s so many of them, the odds are in Phoenix’s favor that at least one or two will do so and provide them with a solid core for years to come. It’s kind of like the Process, but accidental.
Here’s the thing, though: having hope for the future can end up just disappointing you. Yeah, the Suns look like they may be able to mold something concrete and real out of this mass of young players who are little more than ill-defined talents and athleticism and potential at this point, but it’s no guarantee. Maybe Dragan Bender really never develops and maybe Josh Jackson never learns how to shoot and maybe Devin Booker never turns into anything more than a high volume, but not that efficient scorer.
Maybe number one pick Deandre Ayton looked great against college players, but won’t be able to have the same level of impact playing against other professionals. All four of these less-than-best-case-scenarios happening is unlikely, but it’s no more unlikely than all four developing alongside each other at a similar rate and then opening up a championship window. NBA history is littered with teams that had a bunch of young players that were supposed to be the future, but just never were.
Alleviating pressure on their young core is the fact that the Suns are operating in an area largely free of expectations this year, and probably will be again for a year or two after this as well. Suns fans are growing impatient, though they’re not naive enough to believe they should be competing for a playoff spot anytime in the next year or so. In the interim, watching this team is going to be enervating and exhilarating in equal measure. In a way, it’s almost easier to cheer for a team like this that you have no real expectations for. They may play ugly basketball, and have a string of losses that make you want to pick up the cigarettes you thought you left behind years ago, but each disappointment isn’t really all that disappointing — it’s a learning opportunity, or so you tell yourself. Plus, with a team that finished last in the league in both offense and defense last season, any signs of growth are worth latching on to.
At this point, the team does not need to contend for a championship; they don’t even need a playoff appearance. All they need to do for this season to be a success is win more than 21 games and be entertaining. Worrying about all the stuff I’m paid to fret about can wait for Suns fans. In two or three years, they can join me, but for now, they should just try to have some fun, enjoy the glimpses of potential stardom, and not worry too much about future success. It’ll come. And if it doesn’t, well, they’ll probably have a high draft pick next year too.
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