May 22: Daily Fantasy Baseball – Diving into the Numbers (Early Only)

Welcome readers of FantasyCPR, I wanted to provide an article with a unique perspective, one that you don’t get to see every day throughout the different sites that you explore on a daily basis. Prop bets and numbers is how I start my research ever single day and this is a strategy that has been profitable for me so let’s dive into this four-game early only slate.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Team Totals:

1.) Seattle Mariners – 5.94 Runs

2.) Texas Rangers – 5.56 Runs

3.) Oakland A’s – 4.91 Runs

4.) Cleveland Indians – 4.59 Runs

5.) Cincinnati Reds – 4 Runs

6.) Milwaukee Brewers – 4 Runs

7.) St. Louis Cardinals – No Line

8.) Kansas City Royals – No Line

Breakdown – Seattle has the highest implied run today on the slate in Texas against the Rangers. Although as you will see the props don’t really back up this total. I do expect the Mariners to put up runs, but I do not like stacking teams in bullpen games even in this small ball park. My number one stack on the slate is the Oakland A’s against Jefry Rodriguez. A’s have a 4.91 implied run total and will go overlooked as the top stack on a four-game slate because of the implied total of the Rangers and the Mariners. Stack up the A’s.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strikeout Props:

1.  Luis Castillo, CIN ($11,100) – 6.5 (-113)
2. Frankie Montas, OAK ($9,500) – 4.5 (-125)
3. Zach Davies, MIL ($8,600) – 3.5 (-139)

Breakdown: Strikeouts are everything for pitchers in terms of DraftKings/ FanDuel scoring, the key to a great performance is strikeouts. Castillo offers up the most strikeout upside on the slate, at a projected 6.5 strikeout total, however he also has a hefty price tag. Castillo is $1,600 more expensive than the next highest priced pitcher on the slate. So on this slate, we’re going to pay for strikeouts. The only player in the cheaper range who can rack up the strikeouts is Jefy Rodriguez against the A’s but I am not expecting a good outing from Rodriguez today.

Game Lines: Most likely to win, to least likely to win

1.) St. Louis Cardinals (-172)

2.) Oakland A’s (-120)

3.) Texas Rangers (-108)

4.) Milwaukee Brewers (-106)

5.) Cincinnati Reds (-104)

6.) Seattle Mariners (-102)

7.) Cleveland Indians (+110)

8.) Kansas City Royals (+162)

Breakdown: This is a staple in my research as I like to figure out who is the most likely to win the game as it really helps us narrow down our pitching player pools as we can figure who we would expect to be in line for the win. The Cardinals are the team that is most likely to win, which puts Adam Wainwright in play for me, which I would have not considered amongst first look. Given the discount, the projected strikeout total and having decent odds at the win, Frankie Montas is my favorite pitcher on the slate. Marco Gonzales is the one pitcher that I expect to go massively overlooked because of the team total but Gonzales is a pro at limiting damage and the Rangers have a lot of left-handed batters. I think Marco will go massively overlooked today.

Home Run Prop Bets:

1.) Eric Thames, MIL ($4,000) – +300

2.) Matt Chapman, OAK ($4,500) – +300

3.) Mike Moustakas, MIL ($4,200) – +300

4.) Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,400) – +350

5.) Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($4,700) – +375

6.) Jorge Soler, KC ($3,600) – +375

7.) Matt Carpenter, STL ($4,300) – +375

8.) Marcell Ozuna, STL  ($4,800) – +375

9.) Paul DeJong, STL ($5,100) – +375

10.) Yasmani Grandal, MIL ($3,900) – +400

Breakdown: Thames checks in as the most likely player to hit a home run today and looking at the prop bets, they really like the Brewers against Luis Castillo. Based on this, I would make a Brewers stack against Castillo as with the limited option I expect 50% of the field to flock to Castillo. I will not have Castillo at all today. Brewers and Cardinals are clearly getting the most love in the home run player props today.

Steals Prop Bet:

1.) Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($4,900) – +150

2.) Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4,000) – +250

3.) Whit Merrifield, KC ($4,600) – +250

4.) Lorenzo Cain, MIL ($3,900) – +250

5.) Yasiel Puig, CIN ($3,800) – +350

6.) Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4,500) – +375

Breakdown: Mondesi whenever he is on the slate is at the top of this category. What surprised me the most is how much Jose Ramirez stands out. Ramirez has the power needed to produce jack-and-a-bag upside, despite being pretty brutal this season. The point of prop bets is to get you onto players and in a different mindset than you were before. I will have quite of bit of Jose Ramirez today.

Hits Prop Bet:

1.) Lorenzo Cain, MIL ($3,900) – (-278)

2.) Whit Merrifield, KC ($4,600) – (-278)

3.) Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4,500) – (-250)

4.) Paul DeJong, STL ($5,100) – (-238)

5.) Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($4,900) – (-238)

6.) Ryan Braun, MIL ($4,500) – (-227)

7.) Alex Gordon, KC ($4,600) – (-208)

8.) Matt Chapman, OAK ($4,500) – (-208)

9.) Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,400) – (-200)

10.) Stephen Piscotty, OAK ($3,900) – (-200)

Breakdown: Cain and Merrifield stand out today as most likely to get a hit. I rarely use this prop bet, because one hit is worth 3 points on DraftKings and FanDuel and unless it’s for extra bases then this is not going to help you take down a tournament. More of a prop that could be used for a cash game. Helps differentiate between filling out the rest of your lineup.

Good luck on the slate! Hopefully you found this information helpful. Check out the other content at FantasyCPR for your Fantasy Sports needs.