How Tropical Storm Dorian affects Florida State-Boise State gamblers

Tropical Storm Dorian has shifted the total for the Boise State vs. Florida State game on Saturday night in a major way that could influence gamblers.

Florida State officials are monitoring the storm’s progress. This could have quite the impact on the game itself and is something for bettors to keep a close eye on with this opener in Jacksonville, Fla.

Line movement

The total for the game opened at 54 and had reached 54.5 before today’s news that the storm was anticipated to affect the game. A full point drop occurred from 54 with -108 juice towards the under around noon, to being listed at 53 with -120 on the under at some places such as BetOnline.

Follow the trend

It is not too late to place a wager because the current spot of 53 is still a good number in this situation. The weather currently calls for 50/50 chance for it to rain throughout the entire day, with the wind at least in the double-digits at kickoff.

Historically, research shows that games with over 10 mph of wind hit the under around 54 percent of the time, with that growing to 58 percent when it hits 15 mph.

A dampened field from rain throughout the day in addition to the possibility of high winds make this under enticing.

Other factors

There are a few other notes that support taking the under.

• Boise State will be traveling over 2,500 miles for this game and plugging in freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier.
• The Broncos also lose star Alexander Mattison from the backfield and its top two receivers from last year, Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson.
• Florida State returns decent experience to its offense, yet it is a group that only averaged 21.9 points per game a year ago.
• Finally, the Jacksonville Jaguars host a preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons at the stadium on Thursday night. The weather should be fine for that night, but the rain is supposed to pick-up the following afternoon, not leaving a ton of time for the grounds crew to be able to maintain the field. This isn’t a huge concern as a professional groundskeeper staff should be prepared for this kind of event, but is still somewhat unique, specifically if rain does fall during the Jaguars game.

Caution if game date changes

Boston College and Wake Forest met last Sept. 13 and were a popular under bet for individuals as bad weather was expected. The two teams ended up starting the game earlier and went on to a 41-34 game. The 75-point total smashed the O/U that finished as high as 58.5.

The game could be moved up with Boise State flying in on Thursday night. Continue to monitor the line movement and the weather and back away if the game time changes but the total does not.

You can stay up to date at Weather.com for the latest on the storm.