Can a preseason contender recover from an 0-2 start?

A pair of Power Five hopefuls fell to 0-2 for the first time in decades. What happened the last time current Top 10 teams opened the year with two losses?

No team ever enters a season hoping to dig itself into a two-loss hole before the calendar even flips to October. And given the way most Power Five teams line up their non-conference schedules, it is incredibly rare for the sport’s top programs to start a year 0-2.

But sometimes a preseason contender collapses out of the gate. That was the case early in college football’s 150th season as two Power Five squads with hopes of pushing for their respective divisions.

Tennessee had high hopes of challenging Georgia and Florida for the SEC East this season. Instead, for the first time since 1988, the Volunteers dropped their first two games of the season. Jeremy Pruitt’s squad opened the 150th season of college football with a shocking 38-30 loss at home against Georgia State. Tennessee followed up the Panthers upset by coughing up a fourth-quarter lead in Knoxville to fall 29-26 in double overtime against BYU.

At least in Miami’s case, they reached 0-2 for the first time since 1978 with both their losses coming against Power Five opponents. The Hurricanes opened the season against Florida in Orlando, falling 24-20 against the Gators in their Week 0 kickoff showdown at Camping World Stadium. A fortnight later, Miami went to Chapel Hill and dug themselves into a 17-3 hole in the first quarter of a 28-25 defeat.

Tennessee went 31 years without suffering such an indignity. For Miami, more than four decades separated their last bout of early-season futility. Volunteers coach Johnny Majors lasted only two more seasons after the 1988 collapse. In Coral Gables, the 0-2 start in 1978 led to the termination of Lou Saban after his second season at the helm and the hiring of Howard Schnellenberger away from the Miami Dolphins.

At this point of the season, the usual suspects dominate the top of the AP Top 25. Just like Tennessee and Miami, though, the teams that currently occupy the top 10 spots in the AP poll have not always sat at the top of the mountain.

When it comes to college football powerhouses, there is only so much room in the polls, especially the coveted spots between No. 1 and No. 10. Sooner or later, regression to the mean is an inevitability for every team. In this week’s edition of Flashback Friday, we are going to take a look at six teams currently sitting in the top 10 of in the AP Top 25 and what happened when they slumped to 0-2 starts after starting the year as conference contenders.

No. 1 Clemson Tigers (Last 0-2 Start: 1975)

• lost 17-13 vs. Tulane
• lost 56-0 at No. 14 Alabama
• finished season 2-9

After finishing the 1974 season with a winning record for the first time in seven years, Clemson came into 1975 hoping to challenge for the ACC crown. With ACC coach of the year Red Parker at the helm and 48 returning lettermen on the team, the Tigers entered their season opener against Tulane hoping to contend for the conference title. But the Green Wave — a team that went 5-6 in 1974 and finished 4-7 in 1975 — toppled the Tigers 17-13 in South Carolina.

The following week, Clemson headed to Tuscaloosa to face No. 14 Alabama. Bear Bryant’s Crimson Tide promptly shut out the Tigers 56-0, sending Barber and his charges back home with tails twixt legs. The 0-2 start kicked off a disappointing campaign for Clemson fans as the Tigers won just two games and finished fifth in the seven-team ACC. Two years later, Parker was out as the Clemson head coach.

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (Last 0-2 Start: 1990)

• lost 27-24 vs. Southern Miss at Birmingham
• lost 17-13 vs. No. 24 Florida
• finished season 7-5

The 1989 edition of the Crimson Tide finished in a three-way tie at the top of the SEC. Even after head coach Bill Curry bolted Tuscaloosa for the Kentucky job, Alabama looked ready to contend for the league once again. Ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP Top 25, Gene Stallings promptly lost his first game as Alabama head coach against a Southern Miss team led by Brett Favre. Kicking a 52-yard field goal with 3:35 remaining in the game, the Golden Eagles downed the Crimson Tide 27-24 at Legion Field in Birmingham.

After that heartbreaking defeat, Alabama fell out of the polls as they prepared for their SEC opener against Florida. Playing at home, the Crimson Tide were undone by interceptions as Florida safety Will White picked off quarterback Gary Hollingsworth three times. Even then, the Gators needed a touchdown on a blocked punt to prevail 17-13 on the road. The Crimson Tide promptly won seven of their last nine to go bowling. Two years later, they claimed the national title in the first year of the Bowl Coalition.

No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (Last 0-2 Start: 2011)

• lost 35-21 vs. No. 5 Boise State at Atlanta
• lost 45-42 vs. No. 12 South Carolina
• finished season 10-4

Slotted in at No. 19 in the preseason AP Top 25, the 2011 Georgia Bulldogs found themselves locked into a pair of ranked showdowns to start the year. Against a Boise State team ranked No. 5 entering the year, the Bulldogs were a three-point underdog at the Georgia Dome. They promptly came out and collapsed in a two-touchdown defeat against the Broncos, allowing Kellen Moore to go 28-of-34 for 261 yards and three touchdowns.

The next week, Georgia took on a No. 12 South Carolina team between the hedges. Marcus Lattimore ran roughshod on the Bulldogs, finishing with 178 rushing yards and a touchdown as the Gamecocks prevailed 45-42 in Athens. While Mark Richt’s Bulldogs could easily have collapsed after the 0-2 start, though, they instead won 10 straight to finish a game ahead of the Gamecocks in the SEC East. Though they lost to LSU in the SEC championship game and Michigan State in the Outback Bowl, it was still a stirring rebound from a rough start.

No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (Last 0-2 Start: 1986)

• lost 16-10 vs. No. 5 Alabama at the Meadowlands
• lost 40-7 at No. 17 Washington
• finished season 10-3

On August 27, 1986, No. 9 Ohio State faced off against No. 5 Alabama in the Chase Kickoff Classic at Giants Stadium in New Jersey. The Buckeyes were coming off a 9-3 campaign in 1985 where they finished in the top 15 of both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Ohio State tried and failed three times to score the winning touchdown, as the Crimson Tide took back-to-back penalties on what was supposed to be the final play. On their third chance, Buckeyes quarterback Jim Karsatos missed Cris Carter in the endzone by inches and Alabama survived for a 16-10 win.

The Buckeyes dropped just one spot in the polls after the defeat against a higher-ranked team. Two weeks later, they headed west to Seattle for another battle of AP Top 25 teams against No. 17 Washington. After a scoreless first quarter, the Huskies ran up 24 points before halftime to pace a 40-7 blowout of the Buckeyes. Ohio State recovered to win nine straight and set up their rivalry game against Michigan as the de facto Big Ten title game. A loss to the Wolverines sent the Buckeyes to Dallas instead of Pasadena, where they took down No. 8 Texas A&M to finish 10-3.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Last 0-2 Start: 2011)

• lost 23-20 vs. South Florida
• lost 35-31 at Michigan
• finished season 8-5

As they prepared to host South Florida at the start of the 2011 season, Notre Dame was ranked No. 16 and looked forward to inviting Bulls head coach Skip Holtz back to South Bend for a homecoming. A former Fighting Irish wide receiver under his father Lou, Holtz ended up engineering a 23-20 upset. On a day with multiple lightning delays, the Bulls racked up a 16-0 halftime lead and held on to finish off the shocker.

A week later, the Fighting Irish headed to the Big House to take on rival Michigan. Up 24-21 in the fourth quarter, Notre Dame coughed up their lead as the teams traded three touchdowns in the final minute and a half. Michigan got the last laugh when Denard Robinson found Roy Roundtree from 16 yards out with two seconds remaining to prevail 35-31.

Notre Dame went on to their second straight 8-5 season after the 0-2 start, capping the year with an 18-14 loss to Florida State.

No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (Last 0-2 Start: 2007)

• lost 34-32 vs. FCS Appalachian State
• lost 39-7 vs. Oregon
• finished season 9-4

Perhaps the most infamous early-season collapse was the 0-2 start that happened in Ann Arbor during a chaotic 2007 season. Things turned downhill out of the gate for Michigan as they suffered one of the greatest upsets in college football history. Two-time defending I-AA national champion Appalachian State came to the Big House and toppled the No. 5 Wolverines 34-32, as Corey Lynch blocked Jason Gingell’s field-goal attempt on the final play.

In their follow-up, Michigan hosted Oregon hoping to rebound against a Pac-10 contender. Instead, Dennis Dixon racked up 292 passing yards and 76 rushing yards with four total touchdowns as the Ducks ran away with a 39-7 blowout on the road. Michigan eventually bounced back the following week in the rivalry game against Notre Dame, and the Wolverines finished 9-4 in what proved to be Lloyd Carr’s last season before he was pushed out the door.

So can Miami or Tennessee return to contender status?

While this is hardly an exhaustive look at the data across time and for all teams that either entered the year ranked in the polls or were picked as a possible contender in their conference, the odds are not good for the Hurricanes and Volunteers. Past powerhouses in their situation were in many cases able to rebound to reach the postseason; in a few cases, they even managed to win 10 or more games.

But of the six current teams ranked among the top 10 of the AP Top 25, only one of them was able to win their conference division the last time they started 0-2 in a given year. That team, Georgia, had a unique situation where their first two opponents were their two toughest opponents in the regular season. Both Boise State and South Carolina were ranked higher than anyone the Bulldogs faced prior to the SEC title game.

Neither Tennessee nor Miami can claim to have faced a pair of Top 25 teams in their first two contests. But of the two schedules, the Hurricanes have a far better shot of rebounding to contender status in the ACC Coastal than the Volunteers. Their losses came against a top-10 Florida team and a conference foe in North Carolina, similar to the winding path the Bulldogs took in 2011.

Tennessee’s ceiling, on the other hand, is probably either seven or eight wins given a more difficult schedule and the fact that their first two losses came against a pair of non-Power Five opponents on their home turf. Things will not get any easier on the road for the Volunteers.

But what these 0-2 starts from the past show us is that a rebound is indeed possible. Let’s see if Manny Diaz or Jeremy Pruitt can actually get their teams to pull it off this year.