PGA DFS: Safeway Open punt plays and value
Welcome back PGA DFS fans! As we move forward to the West Coast swing of the 2019-2020 Season, we find ourselves at The Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa California. Silverado is known to be a ball strikers and shot makers course that puts a precedent on off the tee accuracy, scrambling and poa annua putting.
There’s a ton of value this week to go along with the big guns that have entered the fold, our attempts here are to find you the best possible outcome for the lowest price using course stat correlations from the last 24 rounds from lower-priced players in the field. Below and on the next slides I’ve included some interesting selections that might find themselves into the weekend and fighting for top position into Sunday. Let’s dive in and have a look.
Ryan Moore is FanDuel specific in this instance as I am not sure what is happening with the FD pricing department having listed him at the minimum price at 7K. Moore found himself in a 3 man playoff between himself, Snedeker and eventual winner Kevin Tway in the 2018 Safeway. Over his last 3 weeks, he found himself well into the FedEx Cup Playoffs where he gained 2.3 Strokes Gained Tee to Green into The BMW at Medinah.
Looking at his putting performances over his career he has gained almost double the amount strokes on Poa Annua greens vs Bermuda. This is a total lapse by FanDuel and should be taken advantage of, I imagine this will almost be a free square for most players. He is alternatively priced at 9.1K on DraftKings which makes a ton more sense.
Cameron finished at a respectable T16 at the Sanderson Farms last weekend. Known as a prolific long iron striker, over his last 15 events He has put together an awesome performance of 3.9 SG Total paired with 1.8 SG Approach.
At a course that will require a lot of strategically placed long irons off the tee and into the greens, I like Tringale to continue his impressive performance of late. He is also a Poa specialist gaining .28 strokes on the Californian surfaces vs .073 on traditional Bermuda. I will lock him in at 7.1k on DK and 8.8k at FanDuel.