The Washington Capitals have a goalie controversy on their hands

Braden Holtby has struggled out of the gate to start the year, and concerns are starting to surface. Will the Capitals turn to rookie Ilya Samsonov already, or has Holtby earned a longer leash?

Braden Holtby faced three shots on Monday night against the Colorado Avalanche, and all three went in the net. The Capitals were behind 3-0 just 7:54 into the first period, and Holtby’s night ended there. Three shots against, three goals against. Rookie backup goalie Ilya Samsonov relieved him, but the Capitals had no chance after a start like that. It may only be seven games into the season for Washington, but a performance like that from Holtby has raised some questions about the future in net for the Capitals.

Holtby has obviously not had an ideal start to the season, and while the Capitals have more issues to blame than just goaltending for their underwhelming start to the season, he certainly hasn’t helped matters with his early struggles.

Through his first five starts of the season, Holtby has stopped 99 of 117 shots for an .846 save percentage, ranking 45th in save percentage in the NHL. The only time Holtby has posted a save percentage above .900 in a game this season was the season opener against the St. Louis Blues, were he still let in the first two shots that he faced before rebounding for his sole win of the season. In his next four starts, Holtby has posted save percentages of .893 against Carolina, .846 against Dallas, .842 against Nashville, and the now infamous .000 against Colorado.

“You need to fight harder to find that first one and find a way to make a save on either of the second ones,” Holtby said after Monday’s loss. “It’s unacceptable on my half and the last few games here, I feel like I’ve put a lot of that weight on my shoulders and it’s something I really need to get better at. Because we fought hard and I just need to be better.”

Holtby is no stranger to going through some rough stretches during the regular season. In the 2017-18 regular season, Holtby went through a rough stretch from February until the end of the season and was replaced by backup goalie Phillip Grubuaer in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, Holtby got the job back when the Capitals went down 0-2 in the first round, and backstopped the Capitals to their first Stanley Cup victory in franchise history.

It’s not entirely fair to place the blame of the Capitals’ sluggish start squarely on the shoulders of Holtby. The Capitals defense is still without Michal Kempny, and they have left Holtby out to dry on numerous occasions. You could even blame all three goals that beat Holtby on Monday on the defense. But the fact of the matter is that Holtby has struggled, while rookie backup goalie Ilya Samsonov has performed above expectations.

Samsonov made his NHL debut in the Capitals second game of the season against the New York Islanders, stopping 25 of 26 shots for his first career win, and the only “shot” that went in was a crazy deflection off of four teammates skates that no goalie could possibly track. His next start against Dallas was another win, stopping 24 of 25 shots. Then in relief for Holtby on Monday, he stopped 19 of 21 shots, but showed his inexperience with one giveaway that led to a goal to put the game away for the Avalanche. However, he has unquestionably been the better goalie in the early portion of the season.

There is more riding on the Capitals goalie decision than just who they can trust to stop pucks better than the other. Holtby is also entering the final year of his contract, and the Capitals don’t have a whole lot of cap space to re-sign him with, leaving the possibility of him leaving via free agency on July 1 wide open. Based on comparable contracts like Sergei Bobrovsky, Holtby could make close to $10M a season on the open market, which is a price the Capitals cannot even entertain paying with Nicklas Backstrom also expiring this season and Alex Ovechkin‘s contract expiring next season.

Samsonov has been groomed as the future replacement for Holtby by Washington since being drafted 22nd overall in 2015, and he’s going to be the guy to take over in net if Holtby leaves. The Capitals obviously don’t want Samsonov taking over with just 25-30 NHL games under his belt, so they’ll be looking for any excuse they can get to give him more playing time. If nothing else, Samsonov’s start along with Holtby’s struggles has certainly earned him more games later in the season.

The Capitals made their decision on Wednesday morning to put Samsonov in net to face the high flying offense of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Instead of praying for a bounce back game from Holtby, the Capitals have gone with the hot hand in Samsonov in the hopes that the first sample was more than just beginners luck. It’s obviously not “must win” territory already in October, but another loss all of the sudden turns into five losses in the last six games, and an 0-4 record on home ice.

All in all, Holtby’s job is not in jeopardy because of a bad stretch, but it is a storyline to follow for the Capitals, especially if it continues. Even if Holtby rebounds, the upcoming contract situation is reason enough to watch how the Capitals deal with their new goalie situation very closely, because Holtby’s future in Washington will depend on it.