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EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 11/2/2019

By Vince Dray

Riyad Mahrez (L), Sergio Aguero and Bernardo Silva of Manchester City during the Carabao Cup Fourth Round match between Manchester City and Southampton at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester on Tuesday 29th October 2019. (Photo by Mark Fletcher/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Riyad Mahrez (L), Sergio Aguero and Bernardo Silva of Manchester City during the Carabao Cup Fourth Round match between Manchester City and Southampton at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester on Tuesday 29th October 2019. (Photo by Mark Fletcher/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images) /
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SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 25: Jamie Vardy of Leicester celebrates scoring their 5th goal with Ayoze Perez ; they both later go on to score a hat-trick each during the Premier League match between Southampton FC and Leicester City at St Mary’s Stadium on October 25, 2019 in Southampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 25: Jamie Vardy of Leicester celebrates scoring their 5th goal with Ayoze Perez ; they both later go on to score a hat-trick each during the Premier League match between Southampton FC and Leicester City at St Mary’s Stadium on October 25, 2019 in Southampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images) /

The 2019-20 EPL season is officially over 25% complete, but there’s been no shortage of action.  Matchday 11 is this weekend, so get ready for the games with my EPL DFS Breakdown.

To start, I need to mention that this week’s lock is 1 hour later than normal.  They’ve already had daylight savings time in England, so sleep in another hour before you have to worry about your lineup!

Southampton was on the wrong end of a historical beatdown last Friday, and they could be in for another rough one this week.  They go on the road to Manchester City (-3.0), who are this slate’s largest favorite in a game with a high goal over/under of 4.0.  City actually played Southampton in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday and won 3-1 with their AB squad.  Even on a large 7 game slate, a City stack will be a super popular strategy.

There are plenty of places to avoid that City chalk though starting with our second largest favorite Liverpool (-1.5) at Aston Villa.  The goal total is set at 3.0 right now.  Liverpool will be the obvious pivot off City, and their studs could still carry some decent ownership on Saturday.

We also have Chelsea (-1.0) away against Watford as decent favorites on this slate in a game with a solid 3.0 goal total.  Prior to Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to Manchester United, Chelsea had won 7 straight in all competitions.  They’ll be anxious to get back to their winning ways on Saturday and they should not go overlooked against the EPL’s worst team.

After those 3, we have 4 teams all favored by 0.5 (Wolverhampton @ Arsenal, Norwich @ Brighton, Newcastle @ West Ham, Burnley @ Sheffield United).  While City, Liverpool, and Chelsea will (and should) dominate a lot of ownership, there are some top-notch GPP plays hidden in these other games.  The highest goal over/under in this bunch is 3.0 in Norwich at Brighton, followed by 2.5 in the Arsenal and West Ham games.  The goal total is only 2.0 in the Burnley at Sheffield game, which will largely be ignored by many DFS players.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@vdray5) for all the important news and advice as we approach lock.