The U.S. Open is unlike the other three major championships in golf for many reasons, but perhaps one of the most underrated is that some sleepers have actually won the U.S. Open in recent years. Look back no further than Wyndham Clark in 2023 at LACC, who was victorious after entering the week at 100-1. Gary Woodland at 2019 in Pebble Beach was also a ripe 60-1 back in 2019. So, as we head to infamous Oakmont this week for the 2025 U.S. Open, we can't go into the tournament without some dark horse picks.
I'll be honest, I fully believe that one of the favorites, whether that's Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, or someone of that ilk, win the 2025 U.S. Open. Oakmont is such a demanding track that it feels inevitable that the true cream of the sport of golf will rise to the top. However, there are still some sleepers in the field whose odds don't quite match up with the fit and potential to be in contention this week.
So let's get into the three 2025 U.S. Open dark horse picks, all of whom with odds north of 60-1, we have in mind and why they could be factors at Oakmont.
Golf betting record in 2025: 17-80-0, +18.835 Units (-2 Units at Charles Schwab, -4 Units at Memorial, No Picks at Canadian Open)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM unless noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 0.1 units for sleepers unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
U.S. Open sleepers who could actually win at Oakmont
3. Russell Henley (+6500)
Despite missing the cut at the previous two majors of the 2025 season, I still belive in Russell Henley and his fit at Oakmont this week. His win at Bay Hill and T5 at the Memorial are notable for how well he's performed on some of the PGA Tour's most difficult golf courses this year and his game should, in many ways, suit playing the U.S. Open well outside of Pittsburgh this week.
Henley isn't a long hitter, but he's terrifically accurate with both his irons and the driver, which should be to his advantage in avoiding the big numbers on the scorecard. Furthermore, he's been solid putting on fast greens and his around-the-green play has improved substantially. With the spots he'll be playing from — namely not the diabolical rough — Henley could find an advantage and ultimately insert himself into the mix near the top of the leaderboard.
Also 0.4 Units on Top 10 finish (+400)
2. Taylor Pendrith (+12000, FanDuel)
Make no mistake, there are several reasons to be dubious of Taylor Pendrith. His approach play can be a bit up and down, he has no real track record in majors to speak of, and his putting on fast greens in terms of strokes gained ranks outside of the Top 50 in this field. Yet, I'm still intrigued based on us not having totally seen how Oakmont will play and the potential to see a different course to victory than what we are initially projecting.
Not only is Pendrith long off the tee, but his swing speed has helped him on approach. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in this field in SG: Approach in events with a high penalty for finding the rough. He's also fifth in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds in events when it's difficult to gain off the tee. If this is a course that has a chance at being simply overpowered, getting a look at Pendrith at 120-1 is something you almost have to do.
Also 0.3 Units on a Top 10 finish (+650)
1. Keegan Bradley (+9000, DraftKings)
Wouldn't it be poetic if the United States Ryder Cup captain won the U.S. Open leading into Bethpage Black this fall? Keegan Braldey might have a better chance of that than you realize. He's not been elite this year, but he's played the exact right way that you'd want someone to attack Oakmont, specifically tee-to-green.
Bradley is a long-enough but highly accurate driver who has also been the second-best in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds on courses with a high rough penalty. What's more, he's also been stellar on extremely difficult courses with his ability to avoid big numbers and find some scoring when that's tough, ranking 12th in SG: Total over the last year on courses graded as "Very Difficult". With all that, we're taking a small look at Bradley this week at 90-1.
Also 1 Unit on a Top 20 finish (+220)