The Golden State Warriors were one of the early surprises of the 2024-25 NBA season, going 12-3 over their first 15 games, a mark that had them in first place in the Western Conference standings on November 22.
But Steve Kerr's squad cooled considerably following that sizzling start, as the Dubs went on to lose 23 of their next 35, falling to 25-26 with a 120-112 defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on February 6.
That particular game, of course, has special significance, as it was the last for Golden State before Jimmy Butler donned a Warriors uniform for the first time a couple of nights later.
And in the four games before the All-Star break with the six-time All-Star in the lineup, the Warriors, playing with a renewed energy, went 3-1 with Butler averaging 21.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Steph Curry scoring 31.0 points, dishing out 5.3 assists, and grabbing 5.0 rebounds per contest certainly didn't hurt.
Now 28-27, the Warriors enter the final third of the campaign sitting in 10th place in the West. The Sacramento Kings hold the same 28-27 record but own the tiebreaker over Golden State, having won the first two meetings between the two clubs this season.
As it happens, the Warriors and Kings will resume play this Friday against one another and will then meet for a fourth time on March 13.
With their identical 28-27 records, the Kings and Warriors are just 1.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Phoenix Suns (26-28) but are also only 3.5 games behind the sixth-place Los Angeles Clippers (31-23), with the Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 7, 31-25) and Dallas Mavericks (No. 8, 30-26) sitting in between.
Getting into the top six is important, of course, because it keeps a team from having to participate in the Play-In Tournament, which the Warriors did a year ago, losing the 9 vs. 10 matchup to none other than the Kings.
It obviously remains to be seen where Golden State will be seeded once the 2025 NBA Playoffs begin — if they make it all, that is — but let's have a little fun and look at the best-case, worst-case, and most likely playoff scenarios for the Warriors this spring.
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Best-case: The Warriors jump all the way up into the top four in the West
As the Warriors resume their season sitting 16.5 games back of the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1, 44-10), 8.0 back of the Memphis Grizzlies (No. 2, 36-18), and 8.5 back of the Denver Nuggets (No. 3, 36-19), getting into the top three in the West seems like an impossible task.
However, it could be possible for the Dubs to catch the Houston Rockets, who currently sit in fourth place at 34-21. Yes, a six-game deficit is daunting. And let's not forget that the Warriors would also have to surpass the teams mentioned above, as well as the new-look Lakers, who went into their Wednesday night matchup with the Charlotte Hornets in fifth place at 32-20.
Here's the thing, though.
Of the 15 teams in the West, the Warriors have the second-easiest strength of schedule coming down the stretch. While that undoubtedly has to be taken with a grain of salt, it's still encouraging.
What's also encouraging is that while Golden State has played fantastic basketball since Butler came on board, things are only going to get better once Jonathan Kuminga returns from the ankle injury that has kept him sidelined since January 4, which should be soon.
Again, while getting into the top four will be challenging, that's the best the Warriors can hope for at this point.
Worst-case: Golden State misses the NBA Playoffs altogether
The worst-case scenario for Golden State would obviously be to miss the postseason completely.
As things stand currently, that doesn't seem likely, but it certainly can't be ruled out. Butler's injury history can't be ignored, and Curry has battled various ailments throughout the season that have kept him out of nine games. There's also no guarantee that Kuminga will be 100 percent upon his return.
As mentioned, the Warriors are just 1.5 games ahead of the Suns, and the San Antonio Spurs, who recently added De'Aaron Fox, are just 3.5 games back of Golden State and Sacramento at 23-29.
Again, the likelihood of the Dubs missing out seems low, but you just never know.
Most likely: The Warriors win the No. 6 seed
Given how the schedule shakes out over the next two months, we're thinking that the Warriors will likely end up as the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference when all is said and done.
While the Kings added Zach LaVine, they're not as strong overall as they were with Fox. The Mavericks not only lost Luka Doncic in that wild trade with the Lakers, but they'll now also be without the services of Anthony Davis for the foreseeable future.
And while Minnesota is the only team in the West with an easier remaining strength of schedule than Golden State, the Warriors took three of their four meetings with the Wolves, so they'd win a tiebreaker if they end up with the same record. They'll have to catch them, of course, but that's a positive.
Another positive is that the Clippers have the fifth-toughest schedule in the league down the stretch, as their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .532. The issue is that Golden State would need to finish with a better record, as LA has already clinched a head-to-head tiebreaker by winning the first three meetings between the two.
There is one matchup remaining with the Clips, however, and it just happens to fall on the final day of the regular season. So, we'll throw out the prediction that the Warriors will win that game and clinch the No. 6 seed in the West in the process.